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Spring Prompt · AI Benchmark

World Cup Bench

Can AI predict the World Cup? Five flagship models go head-to-head on every 2026 knockout match - who goes through, the score, the goalscorers - graded against reality.

The contenders

Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8
GPT-5.5 GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro
GLM-5.2 GLM-5.2
Qwen 3.7 Max Qwen 3.7 Max

Live standings

4/17 scored
🥇 GPT-5.5 38
🥈 Gemini 3.1 Pro 35
🥉 GLM-5.2 35
4 Claude Opus 4.8 25
5 ⚑ Ranking favourite 24

Updated 30 Jun 2026, 10:07 UTC

How it's a fair test: every model gets the same scouting report (team ratings, recent form, head-to-head and the full squad) and no live internet, so it predicts blind, like a pundit before kickoff. Knockout picks are saved before the match is played.

League table

Hover any column header for what it means.

# Model Played Through Exact score Result Goalscorers Penalties Red card Points Calibration
🥇 GPT-5.5 4 15 12 0 3 8 0 38 0.16
🥈 Gemini 3.1 Pro 4 15 6 2 6 6 0 35 0.13
🥉 GLM-5.2 4 15 6 2 6 6 0 35 0.16
4 Claude Opus 4.8 4 10 3 2 6 4 0 25 0.18
⚑ Ranking favourite Baseline 4 15 3 2 0 4 0 24 0.16
6 Qwen 3.7 Max 4 10 3 2 3 4 0 22 0.19
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup

Points = the sum of the breakdown columns. Calibration measures how honest a model's confidence is: if it says 70% and is right 70% of the time, that's perfectly calibrated (lower is better, it's a Brier score where 0 is perfect). The Ranking favourite is a dumb baseline that always backs the higher-rated team - the bar every model should beat.

Reading a pick: United States = team tipped to go through = predicted goalscorers correct · wrong conf = the model's confidence
2026-06-28 FT
South Africa South Africa 0-1 Canada Canada

Canada through · Stephen Eustáquio

⚑ Ranking favourite Canada 0-1 82% +10
Claude Opus 4.8 Canada 0-2 77% +9
GPT-5.5 Canada 0-1 78% +10
Gemini 3.1 Pro Canada 0-2 75% +9
GLM-5.2 Canada 1-2 71% +9
Qwen 3.7 Max Canada 0-2 78% +9
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-29 FT
Brazil Brazil 2-1 Japan Japan

Brazil through · Kaishū Sano, Casemiro, Gabriel Martinelli

⚑ Ranking favourite Brazil 1-0 62% +9
Claude Opus 4.8 Brazil 2-1 65% +10
GPT-5.5 Brazil 2-1 61% +10
Gemini 3.1 Pro Brazil 2-1 72% +10
GLM-5.2 Brazil 2-1 62% +10
Qwen 3.7 Max Brazil 2-1 65% +10
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-29 FT
Germany Germany 1-1 Paraguay Paraguay

Paraguay through on pens · Julio Enciso, Kai Havertz

⚑ Ranking favourite Paraguay 0-1 65% +5
Claude Opus 4.8 Germany 2-1 55% +3
GPT-5.5 Paraguay 1-1 56% +10
Gemini 3.1 Pro Paraguay 1-1 62% +13
GLM-5.2 Paraguay 1-1 55% +13
Qwen 3.7 Max Germany 2-1 62% +0
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-29 FT
Netherlands Netherlands 1-1 Morocco Morocco

Morocco through on pens · Cody Gakpo, Issa Diop

⚑ Ranking favourite Netherlands 1-0 67% +0
Claude Opus 4.8 Netherlands 2-1 64% +3
GPT-5.5 Netherlands 1-1 62% +8
Gemini 3.1 Pro Netherlands 2-1 65% +3
GLM-5.2 Netherlands 2-1 62% +3
Qwen 3.7 Max Netherlands 2-1 72% +3
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-30 locked
France France vs Sweden Sweden
⚑ Ranking favourite France 1-0 88%
Claude Opus 4.8 France 2-1 88%
GPT-5.5 France 2-1 84%
Gemini 3.1 Pro France 3-1 85%
GLM-5.2 France 3-1 85%
Qwen 3.7 Max France 2-0 82%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-30 locked
Ivory Coast Ivory Coast vs Norway Norway
⚑ Ranking favourite Ivory Coast 1-0 80%
Claude Opus 4.8 Ivory Coast 2-1 68%
GPT-5.5 Ivory Coast 2-1 72%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Ivory Coast 2-1 68%
GLM-5.2 Ivory Coast 2-1 68%
Qwen 3.7 Max Ivory Coast 2-1 72%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-06-30 locked
Mexico Mexico vs Ecuador Ecuador
⚑ Ranking favourite Ecuador 0-1 59%
Claude Opus 4.8 Mexico 1-1 52%
GPT-5.5 Ecuador 1-1 56%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Ecuador 1-1 55%
GLM-5.2 Mexico 2-1 55%
Qwen 3.7 Max Ecuador 1-1 55%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-01 locked
Belgium Belgium vs Senegal Senegal
⚑ Ranking favourite Belgium 1-0 86%
Claude Opus 4.8 Belgium 2-0 82%
GPT-5.5 Belgium 2-0 82%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Belgium 2-0 85%
GLM-5.2 Belgium 2-0 78%
Qwen 3.7 Max Belgium 2-0 85%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-01 locked
England England vs DR Congo DR Congo
⚑ Ranking favourite England 1-0 85%
Claude Opus 4.8 England 2-0 89%
GPT-5.5 England 2-0 86%
Gemini 3.1 Pro England 2-0 88%
GLM-5.2 England 2-0 82%
Qwen 3.7 Max England 2-0 88%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-01 locked
United States United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina
⚑ Ranking favourite United States 1-0 68%
Claude Opus 4.8 United States 2-1 69%
GPT-5.5 United States 2-1 71%
Gemini 3.1 Pro United States 2-1 68%
GLM-5.2 United States 2-1 72%
Qwen 3.7 Max United States 1-1 65%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-02 locked
Portugal Portugal vs Croatia Croatia
⚑ Ranking favourite Portugal 1-0 61%
Claude Opus 4.8 Portugal 2-1 63%
GPT-5.5 Portugal 2-1 62%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Portugal 2-1 65%
GLM-5.2 Portugal 2-1 64%
Qwen 3.7 Max Portugal 2-1 65%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-02 locked
Spain Spain vs Austria Austria
⚑ Ranking favourite Spain 1-0 87%
Claude Opus 4.8 Spain 2-0 87%
GPT-5.5 Spain 2-0 86%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Spain 2-0 85%
GLM-5.2 Spain 2-0 82%
Qwen 3.7 Max Spain 2-0 88%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-02 locked
Switzerland Switzerland vs Algeria
⚑ Ranking favourite Switzerland 1-0 51%
Claude Opus 4.8 0-1 53%
GPT-5.5 1-1 51%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Switzerland 1-1 52%
GLM-5.2 1-1 55%
Qwen 3.7 Max Switzerland 1-1 55%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-03 locked
Argentina Argentina vs Cape Verde Cape Verde
⚑ Ranking favourite Argentina 1-0 96%
Claude Opus 4.8 Argentina 3-0 95%
GPT-5.5 Argentina 3-0 94%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Argentina 3-0 95%
GLM-5.2 Argentina 3-0 93%
Qwen 3.7 Max Argentina 3-0 96%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-03 locked
Australia Australia vs Egypt Egypt
⚑ Ranking favourite Egypt 0-1 77%
Claude Opus 4.8 Egypt 0-1 74%
GPT-5.5 Egypt 0-1 72%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Egypt 0-2 72%
GLM-5.2 Egypt 0-2 72%
Qwen 3.7 Max Egypt 0-2 75%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-03 locked
Colombia Colombia vs Ghana Ghana
⚑ Ranking favourite Colombia 1-0 84%
Claude Opus 4.8 Colombia 2-0 84%
GPT-5.5 Colombia 2-0 84%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Colombia 2-0 85%
GLM-5.2 Colombia 2-0 78%
Qwen 3.7 Max Colombia 2-0 88%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup
2026-07-04 locked
Canada Canada vs Morocco Morocco
⚑ Ranking favourite Morocco 0-1 56%
Claude Opus 4.8 Morocco 1-2 57%
GPT-5.5 Morocco 1-1 57%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Morocco 1-2 62%
GLM-5.2 Morocco 1-2 62%
Qwen 3.7 Max Morocco 1-2 65%
springprompt.com/evals/world-cup

How World Cup Bench works

Each model receives an identical scouting report (Elo rating, recent form, head-to-head record and the full squad), frozen to 2026-06-11, the eve of the tournament, with no internet access. Every model runs at maximum reasoning. Because each model's training cut-off predates the tournament and web access is disabled, every pick is genuinely blind; knockout picks are saved before kickoff.

Results, scores and goalscorers from the open international results dataset; team ratings from eloratings.net; squads from Wikipedia.