Particle-1: What Hollinbrook residents think of three-weekly bin collections

The decision: whether to move general waste collection to every three weeks across the whole district, to do so with extra support for households that need it (a larger bin, or extra collections of nappies and hygiene waste), to pilot it in some areas first, or to drop the proposal. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✓ Sound research
Research score: 89 of 100
Analysis rating: 1,193
Head to head, this task: won 7 of 13

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

Question		Its answer	True
What percentage of open-consultation respondents tend to oppose or strongly oppose collecting general waste every three weeks (Q2)?	✓	77.5%	77.5%
What percentage of residents' panel respondents tend to oppose or strongly oppose collecting general waste every three weeks (Q2)?	✓	45.3%	45.3%
What percentage of residents' panel respondents strongly support or tend to support collecting general waste every three weeks (Q2)?	✓	40.8%	40.8%
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the share of residents' panel respondents who support the change (strongly or tend to)?	✓	4.7 points	4.69 points
On the residents' panel, is the difference in the share supporting the change (strongly or tend to) between owner-occupiers and renters statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
Among residents' panel respondents whose household includes a child under 3 or someone who uses continence or other hygiene products, what percentage chose 'every three weeks, with extra support for households that need it' as their preferred option (Q4)?	✓	55.6%	55.6%
How many of the open-text answers are copies or near-copies of the template comment circulated by a local group?	✓	209	209
How many of the open-text answers from residents' panel respondents mention hygiene: smell, flies, maggots or vermin, or nappies or hygiene waste sitting in the bin?	✓	9	9
As a percentage of all residents' panel respondents, how many oppose the change at Q2 and said they would support it if their household could have a larger bin at no extra charge (Q3)?	✓	10.2%	10.2%
What percentage of residents' panel respondents said they would be very or fairly likely to recycle more if general waste were collected every three weeks (Q5)?	✓	40.5%	40.5%
What percentage of the addresses invited by letter to the residents' panel produced a completed questionnaire?	✓	21.1%	21.1%

Traps in the data 8 of 8 handled

✓The open consultation is self-selected: anyone with the link could respond, Brookfield is 38% of it against 12% of households, and households with a young child or hygiene needs are over-represented. It shows 78% opposed, against 45% on the panel, which matches the district's age and tenure profile.
✓209 open-consultation comments (16% of the consultation's responses) are copies or near-copies of a template circulated by Keep Brookfield Tidy.
✓The council leader wants to show that residents support the change. Support is 41% on the panel (with 45% opposed) and 15% in the open consultation.
✓Q3 was asked only of those who oppose: 22% of panel opponents would support the change with a larger bin, which is only 10% of all panel respondents; most opponents would still oppose.
✓Wendle Vale (panel base 16) shows 62% support, far above any other ward.
✓On the panel, owner-occupiers support the change more than renters (43% against 37%, bases 282 and 140), but the gap is not statistically significant at 95%.
✓40% of the panel say they would be likely to recycle more: a stated intention about a hypothetical change.
✓Only 422 of 2,000 addresses invited to the panel completed (about 21%); the panel is matched on age and tenure only, and those who replied may care more about bins than those who did not.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not claim a resident mandate and do not move to district-wide three-weekly collections now. Also do not drop the proposal solely on the open-consultation figure. Authorise a representative pilot of three-weekly general waste with extra support for households that need it (larger bins and/or extra nappy/hygiene collections), alongside a two-weekly control, and make the full-council decision after that trial. Use the trial to test the concern that matters most in the qualitative data: overflow, smell/hygiene, fly-tipping and perceived value for money.

What would change it

A representative trial or properly weighted panel showing majority support for three-weekly collection with support, with no material rise in fly-tipping, overflow complaints or hygiene problems, would justify district-wide rollout. A larger-bin/extra-collections offer converting more than half of current opponents would also change the case. Conversely, trial evidence of increased fly-tipping, unacceptable hygiene problems, or no cost/service benefit would justify dropping the proposal.

Findings

The council leader cannot tell full council that residents support the change. The best representative evidence shows a plurality opposed, not a majority in favour.

High confidenceBase 422

Residents' panel: support 40.8% (strongly 17.3 + tend 23.5), oppose 45.3% (tend 17.1 + strongly 28.2), neither/don't know 13.9%; base 422. Open consultation is much more negative but campaign-affected.
The cabinet member's 'nearly four in five oppose' is an artefact of the open consultation, not a district estimate. It should not be used to drop the proposal by itself.

High confidenceBase 1318

Open consultation Q2 oppose 77.5% (base 1,318), but 209 of 417 open-text comments are template/near-template campaign responses; Brookfield is 38.0% of the open sample versus 12% of households, and the local group promoted a suggested comment. The residents' panel oppose share is 45.3% (base 422).
There is no majority for any single collection option. The most acceptable routes are a trial or three-weekly with extra support, not immediate district-wide rollout.

High confidenceBase 422

Residents' panel Q4: trial in some areas 25.4%, three-weekly with extra support 23.7%, keep fortnightly 24.6%, district-wide three-weekly 22.0%, don't know 4.3%; base 422. Combining the two supported three-weekly routes gives 49.1% versus 24.6% for keeping fortnightly.
A larger bin alone would not bring most opponents round. The head of waste services should not expect the larger-bin offer to solve opposition.

High confidenceBase 191

Residents' panel opposers at Q2: 22.5% would support with a larger bin, 9.4% neither, 61.3% would still oppose, 6.8% don't know; base 191. As a share of all panel respondents, only 10.2% oppose at Q2 and would support with a larger bin.
Households with a child under 3 or hygiene waste are a critical opposition group, and they prefer extra support over a standard three-weekly service.

Medium confidenceBase 54

Residents' panel child-under-3/hygiene subgroup: oppose 74.1%, support 14.8%; Q4 preference is 55.6% for three-weekly with extra support, 25.9% keep fortnightly, 13.0% trial, 5.6% district-wide; base 54.
Recycling is a plausible benefit but not a guaranteed behavioural change; around two in five panel respondents say they are likely to recycle more.

High confidenceBase 422

Residents' panel Q5 net likely 40.5% (very likely 15.6% + fairly likely 24.9%), neither 16.1%, unlikely 29.1%, already recycle everything 11.8%, don't know 2.4%; base 422.
Tenure differences are not statistically robust, so there is no clear evidence to target rollout by owner/renter status alone. Ward and household-size differences matter more.

Medium confidenceBase 422

Residents' panel support: owner-occupiers 42.6% (base 282) versus renters 37.1% (base 140); difference 5.5 points, not significant at 95% (z about 1.08).
Open-text opposition is driven mainly by capacity/overflow, smell/hygiene/vermin, fly-tipping/litter and value-for-money; support is driven mainly by recycling and environmental benefit.

Medium confidenceBase 417

417 open-text answers; 209 template/near-template campaign responses. Organic themes include capacity/overflow in 67 non-template answers, smell/hygiene/vermin in 35, fly-tipping/dumping in 15, value-for-money/council tax in 39, support/recycling in 57, and no-impact/low-waste in 18.

Caveats

The open consultation is self-selected and heavily campaign-affected: 209 of 417 open-text comments are template/near-template responses, Brookfield is overrepresented (38.0% of open consultation versus 12% of households), and the link was promoted with suggested wording. It cannot be treated as a representative district vote.
The residents' panel is more balanced but unweighted, achieved only 422 completes from 2,000 invited addresses (21.1%), and subgroup bases are small (child/hygiene 54; Wendle Vale 16). The 95% margin of error on panel support is about ±4.7 points, before design and non-response effects.
Q3 is hypothetical and only asked of Q2 opponents; it tests a larger bin but not extra nappy/hygiene collections, which the child/hygiene subgroup especially values.
Q4 preferences are not the same as Q2 support/oppose and include a 'don't know' option; no single option has majority support.
Open-text coding is manual; the campaign-template count is a judgement about near-copies and variants, though the pattern is very strong.
The data contain no cost, service-performance, contamination, fly-tipping or trial outcome evidence, so the financial and operational case for three-weekly collection is not tested here.

Next steps

decisionRule out immediate district-wide rollout and commission a pilot in a representative mix of urban, rural and high-family wards, with matched two-weekly control areas.
decisionDesign and fund extra support: larger bins and/or separate nappy/hygiene waste collections for eligible households.
experimentRun the pilot for at least six months including summer, measuring support/opposition, recycling tonnage, contamination, missed collections, fly-tipping, complaints and household experience.
researchBoost representative research with the residents' panel, especially child-under-3/hygiene households, renters and Brookfield, using weighted or quota-based sampling.
monitorMonitor fly-tipping, bin-overflow reports and hygiene complaints during any pilot and publish a before/after comparison.

Open-text themes it coded

Template/near-template campaign response 209Organic capacity/overflow concerns (non-template) 67Organic smell/hygiene/vermin/nappy or hygiene waste concerns (non-template) 35Organic fly-tipping/litter/dumped bags concerns (non-template) 15Value for money/council tax/service cut 39Support/recycling/environmental benefit 57No impact or low general waste 18

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 8 questions, as the model wrote them.

Q1
How old are you?
One answer
- Under 18
- 18–24
- 25–34
- 35–44
- 45–54
- 55–64
- 65–74
- 75 or over
Continues if 18–24; 25–34; 35–44; 45–54; 55–64; 65–74; 75 or over
Q2
Do you live in the Hollinbrook District Council area?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
Q3
Please enter your postcode. We will use it only to confirm you live in the Hollinbrook District Council area and to assign your answers to the correct ward. It will not be used to identify you in the results.
Open text

Continues if Valid postcode in the Hollinbrook District Council area
Q4
The council is considering changing general waste (black bin) collections from every two weeks to every three weeks. Food waste would stay weekly and recycling would stay every two weeks. To what extent do you support or oppose this change?
One answer
- Strongly oppose
- Somewhat oppose
- Neither support nor oppose
- Somewhat support
- Strongly support
- Don't know
Q5
If general waste were collected every three weeks instead of every two, how easy or difficult would it be for your household to manage?
One answer
- Very difficult
- Somewhat difficult
- Neither easy nor difficult
- Somewhat easy
- Very easy
- Don't know
Q6
How many children aged under 5 live in your household? Enter 0 if none.
Number
Q7
Does anyone in your household use nappies (including reusable nappies) or continence or hygiene products?
One answer
- Yes – nappies for a baby or young child
- Yes – continence or hygiene products
- Yes – both
- No
- Prefer not to say
Q8
Which one of these options would you most prefer for general waste collections in Hollinbrook?
One answer
- Collect general waste every three weeks across the whole district
- Collect general waste every three weeks, with extra support for households that need it (such as a larger bin or extra collections for nappies and hygiene waste)
- Pilot three-weekly general waste collections in some areas first
- Keep general waste collections every two weeks and drop the proposal
- Don't know
Q9
If extra support were available for households that need it (such as a larger general waste bin or extra collections for nappies and hygiene waste), would that make you more likely or less likely to support three-weekly general waste collections?
One answer
- Much more likely
- Somewhat more likely
- No difference
- Somewhat less likely
- Much less likely
- Don't know
Q10
If general waste were collected every three weeks, would you recycle more, less, or about the same as you do now?
One answer
- Much more
- A little more
- About the same
- A little less
- Much less
- Don't know
Q11
Do you own or rent your home?
One answer
- Own outright
- Own with a mortgage or loan
- Rent from the council or a housing association
- Rent from a private landlord
- Other
- Prefer not to say

Sample plan

Two data collection routes will use the same questionnaire. Residents' panel: random sample of addresses stratified by the six wards, with quotas within each ward for age and tenure to match the district profile; invite households by letter, with reminder and replacement addresses, targeting about 420 panel completes. Open consultation: promoted link on the council website, social media and residents' magazine, open to any adult resident; these completes are self-selected and will be reported separately, not combined with the panel for prevalence estimates. Precision: a 420-complete panel gives roughly ±4.8 percentage points at district level at 95% confidence for a 50% estimate, but it cannot give each of six wards ±6 percentage points; that requires about 267 completes per ward, or about 1,602 panel completes in total. If the panel remains at 420, ward results will be indicative only and the ±6pp ward claim must not be made. The questionnaire is neutrally worded and must not be designed or reported to produce a predetermined conclusion; all support, opposition and don't know responses will be reported.