Claude Fable 5.2: Why Pennywell customers don't use savings pots

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. CFO, question 1: no, the 'top reason' does not settle it. The reasons question was only put to the minority who already knew pots existed. About two-thirds of customers without a pot have never heard of them, so they could not have a view on the rate.

   High confidenceBase 700

   Q1: 276 of 700 (39.4%) knew about pots; 60.6% did not or were not sure (margin about ±3.6 points). The sample skews older and older customers are more aware (60.0% of 55-74s vs 21.6% of 18-34s). Weighted to the real age mix, about 66% are unaware, roughly 240,000 of 361,000 customers.

2. 'Rate too low' is the main reason for about one non-user in ten, not three in ten. It is still the largest single reason among those who know about pots, so it is a real barrier for that group.

   High confidenceBase 276

   Q3: 82 of 276 chose it (29.7%, ±5.4 points). That is 11.7% of all 700 respondents and 8.8% once weighted to the customer age mix. Among the same 276, three friction reasons add up to as much as rate: unsure how to set up 10.9%, not got round to it 11.6%, worried about access 7.6% (30.1% in total). The age gap in citing rate (35-54 27.5% vs 55-74 37.5%) is not statistically significant.

3. The nudge and the rate rise move different people. The nudge works on customers who did not know about pots, who are the majority. The rate rise works on those who already knew. Overall the two score about the same on stated intent, so the choice turns on which group matters more to the business.

   Medium confidenceBase 700

   Likely (4-5) to start saving at the current rate, with the nudge, and at 3.85%:

   • Unaware (No or Not sure, n=424): 17% → 43% with nudge → 25% at 3.85%.
   • Aware (n=276): 18.1% → 18.8% with nudge → 37.0% at 3.85%.
   • Total (n=700): 17.4% → 33.7% → 29.9%; age-weighted about 17% → 35% → 29%.

   The total gap between nudge and rate (3.8 points) is within noise. These are stated intentions on hypotheticals, so read them as relative, not as forecasts.

4. CFO, question 2: the £14,500 figure cannot be multiplied across 361,000 customers, and this survey cannot say how much a rate rise would bring in. A more defensible figure is about £7,000 held elsewhere per customer without a pot. That is money that exists elsewhere, not money that would move.

   Medium confidenceBase 700

   • The £14,513 mean covers only the 413 respondents who reported an amount; it leaves out the 250 (35.7%) with no savings elsewhere.
   • It rests on an assumed £75,000 for the top band: 32 people supply 40% of the total. The 88 holding £20,000 or more (12.6% of the sample) supply 73%.
   • The median saver is in the £1,000-£5,000 band; 55.2% of those reporting an amount hold under £5,000.
   • Counting 'None' as zero gives about £9,000 per respondent. Reweighting to the younger real age mix gives about £6,900, so roughly £2.5bn held elsewhere in total, against £5.2bn from the naive sum.
   • No question asked how much anyone would move, and Q7 intent is not cross-tabulated by balance.

5. 3.85% may fall short of what rate-sensitive customers say they want, and the larger balances sit with people who describe themselves as settled with another provider. The 18.1% → 37.0% rise in stated intent among aware customers should not be read as deposits.

   Low confidenceBase 230

   Open text: 45 of 230 answers ask for a better rate. Those that name a level ask for 'at least 4%', 'something like 5%', 'a full percentage point more than Nationwide' or 'top of the best-buy tables'. 17 answers say savings are staying with a named bank or building society, 11 of them alongside a rate comment. Q3: 19.6% of aware respondents keep savings elsewhere as their main reason.

6. Head of marketing: no, not on this evidence. The 75-or-over figures rest on 20 people, and the group is about 2% of customers without a pot (around 7,200 people). Most customers with large balances elsewhere are under 75.

   Low confidenceBase 20

   • 13 of 20 hold £20,000 or more (65%); the plausible range is roughly 43% to 82%. Only 7 answered Q3.
   • Applying each age band's share to the population gives about 4,700 such customers aged 75+, against about 10,100 aged 55-74 and 12,400 aged 35-54. That makes 75+ around one in seven of roughly 34,000.
   • Nothing shows this group would respond: 5 of 20 are likely under either the nudge or the rate rise, and 3 of the 7 asked said they keep savings elsewhere.

7. An awareness push will leak unless pots are easier to find and set up, and unless it says plainly that money can be withdrawn instantly. Some customers who knew about pots tried to open one and gave up. Others fear slow withdrawals from what is an instant-access product.

   Medium confidenceBase 230

   Open text: 40 of 230 answers say pots are hard to find or fiddly to set up; 20 of those are from aware customers, several describing an abandoned attempt (P039, P048, P141, P661). 10 answers worry about withdrawal speed. Q3 (n=276): 10.9% unsure how to set up, 7.6% worried about access.

8. A sizeable minority are out of reach of either lever because they have nothing to save or do not want to save.

   Medium confidenceBase 700

   Q4: 35.7% hold no savings elsewhere and a further 15.0% under £1,000 (n=700). Q3: 13.4% of aware respondents have no money left over (n=276). Open text: 23 answers say no spare money and 15 say not interested. Even in the best scenario shown, most respondents are not 'likely'.

Open-text themes it coded

Did not know pots exist or what they are; want Pennywell to tell them or explain 126Interest rate too low; want a higher or more competitive rate 45Pots hard to find in the app or set-up too complicated 40No spare money to save 23Savings kept with another provider out of habit, trust or loyalty 17Not interested in saving or in saving this way; nothing would change it 15Worry about how quickly money can be withdrawn 10

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Do you currently have a Pennywell current account?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No
   • Not sure

   Continues if Yes

2. S2

   How old are you?

   One answer
   • Under 18
   • 18 to 34
   • 35 to 54
   • 55 to 74
   • 75 or over

   Continues if 18 to 34; 35 to 54; 55 to 74; 75 or over

3. S3

   Pennywell offers 'savings pots' – savings accounts that you open inside the Pennywell app. Thinking about what you knew before today, which one of these best describes you? There are no right or wrong answers.

   One answer
   • I have opened a savings pot (now or in the past)
   • I knew Pennywell offered savings pots, but I have never opened one
   • I had a vague idea Pennywell offered something like this, but I wasn't sure
   • I did not know Pennywell offered savings pots

   Continues if I knew Pennywell offered savings pots, but I have never opened one; I had a vague idea Pennywell offered something like this, but I wasn't sure; I did not know Pennywell offered savings pots

4. Q1

   Which of the following, if any, are reasons why you have not opened a Pennywell savings pot? Please select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • I don't have spare money to save at the moment
   • I already save with another provider and I'm happy there
   • I haven't got round to it
   • I don't know enough about how savings pots work
   • I couldn't find them, or wasn't sure how to set one up, in the app
   • The interest rate is lower than I can get elsewhere
   • I don't know what interest rate they pay
   • I prefer to keep my savings separate from my everyday bank account
   • I mainly use Pennywell for spending, not as my main bank
   • Another reason
   • No particular reason / don't know

   Routing Shown only if S3 is: I knew Pennywell offered savings pots, but I have never opened one; I had a vague idea Pennywell offered something like this, but I wasn't sure

5. Q2

   As far as you know, what yearly interest rate (AER) do Pennywell savings pots currently pay? If you are not sure, please select 'I don't know' rather than guessing.

   One answer
   • Less than 1%
   • 1% to 1.99%
   • 2% to 2.99%
   • 3% to 3.99%
   • 4% or more
   • I don't know

   Routing Shown only if S3 is: I knew Pennywell offered savings pots, but I have never opened one; I had a vague idea Pennywell offered something like this, but I wasn't sure

6. Q3

   Thinking about cash savings you hold with providers other than Pennywell – for example savings accounts, cash ISAs or fixed-term savings, but not investments or pensions – roughly how much do you hold in total? A rough estimate is fine.

   One answer
   • None
   • Less than £1,000
   • £1,000 to £4,999
   • £5,000 to £9,999
   • £10,000 to £24,999
   • £25,000 to £49,999
   • £50,000 or more
   • Prefer not to say
7. Q4

   How much of that money could you withdraw at any time without paying a penalty or losing interest (for example, money in an easy-access or instant-access account)?

   One answer
   • All of it
   • More than half
   • About half
   • Less than half
   • None of it
   • I don't know

   Routing Shown only if Q3 is: Less than £1,000; £1,000 to £4,999; £5,000 to £9,999; £10,000 to £24,999; £25,000 to £49,999; £50,000 or more

8. Q5

   What yearly interest rate (AER) does the account holding most of those savings pay? If you are not sure, please select 'I don't know' rather than guessing.

   One answer
   • Less than 1%
   • 1% to 1.99%
   • 2% to 2.99%
   • 3% to 3.49%
   • 3.5% to 3.99%
   • 4% or more
   • I don't know

   Routing Shown only if Q3 is: Less than £1,000; £1,000 to £4,999; £5,000 to £9,999; £10,000 to £24,999; £25,000 to £49,999; £50,000 or more

9. Q6

   To help us check the quality of responses, please select 'Orange' from the list below.

   One answer
   • Blue
   • Green
   • Orange
   • Purple
10. Q7A

    Here is how Pennywell savings pots work. A savings pot is a savings account that you open inside the Pennywell app. You can pay money in or take it out at any time, with no penalties. Savings pots pay interest of 3.1% AER (the rate you would earn over a year). Knowing this, how likely or unlikely are you to open a savings pot in the next 3 months? Please answer on a scale from 1 (Very unlikely) to 5 (Very likely).

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

11. Q7B

    Here is how Pennywell savings pots work. A savings pot is a savings account that you open inside the Pennywell app. You can pay money in or take it out at any time, with no penalties. Savings pots pay interest of 3.85% AER (the rate you would earn over a year). Knowing this, how likely or unlikely are you to open a savings pot in the next 3 months? Please answer on a scale from 1 (Very unlikely) to 5 (Very likely).

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

12. Q8

    If you opened a Pennywell savings pot on the terms just described, roughly how much do you think you would put into it in the first 3 months? Please include any money you would move from accounts elsewhere.

    One answer
    • Nothing – I would not open one
    • Less than £500
    • £500 to £999
    • £1,000 to £4,999
    • £5,000 to £9,999
    • £10,000 to £24,999
    • £25,000 or more
    • I don't know
13. Q9

    Which one of the following, if any, would do the most to make you open a Pennywell savings pot?

    One answer
    • A clear explanation in the app of what savings pots are and how they work
    • A prompt on payday offering to set one up and move money into it
    • A quicker or simpler way to set one up
    • A higher interest rate than the one shown earlier
    • Something else
    • Nothing – I'm not interested in opening a savings pot