Claude Fable 5.2: What Hollinbrook residents think of three-weekly bin collections

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. Council leader: no, you cannot tell full council that residents back three-weekly collections. On the residents' panel, the only source that reflects the district, opinion is split with no majority either way, and feeling is stronger among opponents.

   High confidenceBase 422

   Panel (n=422): 40.8% support (±4.7 points, so roughly 36-46%) and 45.3% oppose (roughly 41-50%). The 4.5-point gap between them is within sampling error. Strongly oppose is 28.2% against strongly support 17.3%, and that gap is statistically significant. The supportable line is 'residents are divided, and most are open to a supported or trialled version'.

2. Cabinet member: the 'nearly four in five oppose' figure is real, but it measures who was mobilised to respond, not what the district thinks. It is not grounds on its own to drop the proposal.

   High confidenceBase 1318

   Open consultation (n=1,318, self-selected): 77.5% oppose. Brookfield supplies 38.0% of responses against 12% of households. 28.9% of respondents (381) have a child under 3 or a hygiene-product user against about 15% of households. 18-34s are 15.3% against 24%, and owners 81.5% against 67%. Re-weighting wards to their true shares only moves opposition to about 75%, so the bias is self-selection across the district, not just Brookfield. On the panel, Brookfield (n=47) is 46.8% opposed, in line with the district's 45.3%.

3. Keeping fortnightly collections is a minority first choice, but so is an unconditional district-wide switch. There is no mandate to drop the proposal and none to impose it as it stands.

   Medium confidenceBase 422

   Panel Q4 (n=422): whole district 22.0%, with extra support 23.7%, trial first 25.4%, keep two-weekly 24.6% (each about ±4 points, so a statistical four-way tie). 71.1% chose some form of three-weekly, including trial. 45.3% oppose at Q2 but only 24.6% pick 'keep two-weekly', so roughly half of opposition is conditional. Even in the open consultation only 42.7% chose keep two-weekly and 52.4% chose a three-weekly variant. Medium confidence because Q4 offers three change options against one status quo, and 'trial then decide' is not an endorsement.

4. Households with a child under 3 or a hygiene-product user are by far the most opposed group, yet they are no more likely than anyone else to want the proposal dropped. Most choose three-weekly with extra support, so the support package is the condition for their acceptance.

   Medium confidenceBase 54

   Panel, affected households (n=54): 74.1% oppose and 14.8% support, against 41.0% and 44.6% among other households (n=368); the difference is significant. At Q4, 55.6% of affected households (30 of 54, ±13 points) choose 'with extra support' and 25.9% keep two-weekly, against 24.5% keep two-weekly among others. The direction is clear but precision is poor on 54 people. The panel slightly under-represents this group (12.8% against about 15%); correcting for that moves the panel totals by less than a point.

5. Head of waste: no, a larger bin alone would not bring most opponents round. It converts about one in five, which would lift support to roughly half, not to a clear majority.

   Medium confidenceBase 191

   Panel opponents (n=191): 22.5% would support with a free larger bin (43 people, ±6 points), 61.3% would still oppose, 9.4% neither, 6.8% don't know. Those 43 are 10.2% of the whole panel; added to the 172 existing supporters that gives about 51% hypothetical support, while 27.7% of the panel (117) still oppose. Open consultation opponents (n=1,021): 17.4% would support, 66.5% would still oppose. Q3 tested only the bin, not nappy or hygiene collections, and it is a stated hypothetical.

6. Opposition rests on four distinct objections, and a larger bin answers only one of them (capacity). Hygiene needs a separate nappy and hygiene collection, 'paying the same for less' needs a financial answer, and fly-tipping needs enforcement and evidence.

   Medium confidenceBase 208

   Of 208 comments written in respondents' own words (106 consultation, 102 panel): bin already full or large household 65; smell, flies, vermin or nappies 35; council tax or value for money 39; fly-tipping or side waste 15. On the positive side, 57 would recycle more or back it for the environment and 16 expect no impact. Among panel comments (n=102), 42 are supportive, 24 capacity, 15 value for money, 10 no impact, 9 hygiene and 7 fly-tipping. Counts show the range of concerns and their rough order, not prevalence.

7. About two-thirds of the consultation comments supplied are one campaign text. Treat it as one argument made many times by genuinely concerned residents, not as 209 independent accounts of household impact.

   High confidenceBase 315

   209 of the 315 open-consultation comments are copies or near-copies of the Keep Brookfield Tidy wording (four variants). Roughly three-quarters come from Brookfield and the rest from every other ward. None of the 102 panel comments uses it. The template makes overflow, hygiene and fly-tipping points that also appear independently in own-words comments, so the concerns are real even though the volume is inflated.

8. The environmental case is unproven by this survey. Four in ten say they would recycle more, but stated intentions overstate behaviour, so real tonnage data from a trial is needed.

   Low confidenceBase 422

   Panel Q5 (n=422): 40.5% very or fairly likely to recycle more (±4.7 points), 29.1% unlikely, 11.8% already recycle everything they can, 16.1% neither. Open consultation: 24.2% likely. No behavioural or tonnage data was collected.

9. Do not target or exempt groups by tenure, age or ward on this evidence. Subgroup differences on the panel are mostly within sampling error; the only reliable split is households with young children or hygiene-product users.

   Low confidenceBase 422

   Owners 42.6% support (n=282) against renters 37.1% (n=140): z≈1.1, not significant. Renters are more often strongly opposed (37.1% against 23.8%), which is suggestive but one of many post-hoc comparisons. Ward bases are 16-133: Wendle Vale's 62.5% support is 10 of 16 people, and the widest ward gap (Stanmoor 55.2% oppose against Ashby Marsh 33.7%) does not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Those aged 75 or older show 51.0% support on n=51 (±14 points).

Open-text themes it coded

Campaign template comment (Keep Brookfield Tidy wording: overflow, smell, flies and rats, fly-tipping, keep fortnightly) 209Bin already full at two weeks: would overflow (often large households) 65Hygiene: smell, flies, maggots, vermin; nappies and continence waste sitting for three weeks 35Value for money: same or higher council tax for a reduced service 39Fly-tipping and bags dumped or left beside bins in the neighbourhood 15Supportive: would recycle more and waste less, good for the environment 57Little or no impact: small household, black bin rarely full 16

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   How old are you?

   One answer
   • Under 18
   • 18 to 24
   • 25 to 34
   • 35 to 44
   • 45 to 54
   • 55 to 64
   • 65 to 74
   • 75 or over

   Continues if 18 to 24; 25 to 34; 35 to 44; 45 to 54; 55 to 64; 65 to 74; 75 or over

2. S2

   Do you live in the Hollinbrook District Council area? (This is the council that collects your household bins.)

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No
   • Not sure

   Continues if Yes; Not sure

3. S3

   What is the full postcode of your home address? (For example: AB1 2CD.) We use this only to confirm that you live in the Hollinbrook District Council area and to compare views between different parts of the district. It will be converted to a ward and will not be used to identify you or your household.

   Open text

   Continues if Any valid full postcode inside the Hollinbrook District Council area (checked automatically against the council's postcode-to-ward list; postcodes outside the district are screened out)

4. Q1

   Thinking about the last few general waste (black bin) collections, how full was your household's black bin usually by collection day?

   One answer
   • Less than half full
   • About half full
   • About three-quarters full
   • Completely full
   • Completely full, with extra waste that would not fit in the bin
   • We do not have our own black bin (for example, we share bins or use sacks)
   • Don't know
5. Q2

   How much of your household's food waste do you put out for the weekly food waste collection?

   One answer
   • All or almost all of it
   • Most of it
   • Some of it
   • None – it goes in the black bin
   • None – we compost it at home or deal with it another way
   • We do not have a food waste container
   • Don't know
6. Q3

   Hollinbrook District Council is considering collecting general waste (the black bin) every three weeks instead of every two weeks. Food waste would still be collected every week and recycling every two weeks. The council estimates the change would save about £600,000 a year; it needs to find £3.1 million of savings next year. No decision has been made. To what extent do you support or oppose collecting general waste every three weeks?

   One answer
   • Strongly support
   • Tend to support
   • Neither support nor oppose
   • Tend to oppose
   • Strongly oppose
   • Don't know
7. Q4

   If your black bin were collected every three weeks instead of every two, how easy or difficult would it be for your household to manage its general waste?

   One answer
   • Very easy
   • Fairly easy
   • Neither easy nor difficult
   • Fairly difficult
   • Very difficult
   • Don't know
   Judges: assumptive

   Assumes the household has a black bin, although Q1 explicitly allows households using sacks and no routing excludes them from this question.

   Assumes the respondent's household has a black bin, but Q1 allows them to state they share bins or use sacks. It lacks display logic to handle this.

8. Q5

   If your black bin were collected every three weeks, which, if any, of these would your household be likely to do? Please select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • Put more of our recyclable items in the recycling bin
   • Put more of our food waste out for the weekly food waste collection
   • Try to produce less waste (for example, buying things with less packaging)
   • Take extra waste to the household waste recycling centre (the tip)
   • Put out extra bags beside the black bin
   • Nothing different – we already recycle everything we can
   • Nothing different – for other reasons
   • Don't know
   Judges: assumptive

   Assumes the household has a black bin, although households using sacks can reach this question. Several response options also refer to using or placing waste beside that bin.

   Assumes the respondent has a black bin, which may not be true for those who selected 'We do not have our own black bin' in Q1.

9. Q6

   Now suppose the council did move to collecting general waste every three weeks, but households that needed it could get extra help: a larger black bin, or an extra collection for nappies and hygiene waste (such as continence products). With this extra help available, to what extent would you support or oppose collecting general waste every three weeks?

   One answer
   • Strongly support
   • Tend to support
   • Neither support nor oppose
   • Tend to oppose
   • Strongly oppose
   • Don't know
10. Q7

    If general waste were collected every three weeks and this extra help were available, which, if any, would your household ask for? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • A larger black bin
    • An extra collection for nappies
    • An extra collection for continence products or similar hygiene waste
    • None of these
    • Don't know
11. Q8

    The council has four options. Which one would you most prefer?

    One answer
    • Collect general waste every three weeks across the whole district
    • Collect general waste every three weeks across the whole district, with extra help (a larger bin, or extra collections of nappies and hygiene waste) for households that need it
    • Try three-weekly collection in some areas first, before deciding whether to introduce it across the district
    • Keep general waste collection every two weeks
    • Don't know / no preference
12. Q9

    Which, if any, of these apply to your household? Please select all that apply. We ask because a change to collections could affect these households differently.

    Any that apply
    • One or more children in nappies
    • Someone who uses continence products, stoma bags or similar products because of a health condition or disability
    • Five or more people live in the household
    • None of these
    • Prefer not to say
13. Q10

    Is there anything else you would like to tell the council about this proposal, including how it would affect your household? (Optional – please do not include your name or other personal details.)

    Open text