Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview: Why Riverside Food Network is losing volunteers

The decision: how to spend next year's £45,000 for volunteer support: reimburse volunteers' travel costs, fund a part-time volunteer coordinator with online shift booking, or do both at a smaller scale. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✗ Not sound
Research score: 70 of 100
Analysis rating: 810
Head to head, this task: won 4 of 10

Why it is not sound

The analysis

Reported a material finding the data does not support
Missed a trap: Travel cost is the most-cited difficulty overall, but it is cited about as often by active volunteers (37%) as by lapsed ones (40%), so it does not explain who left. Short-notice shift changes (14% active against 52% lapsed), no way to book or swap shifts and not being told about changes differ sharply.
Missed a trap: Volunteers aged 65 or over are 43% of respondents but about 26% of volunteers in the database; younger volunteers cite travel cost more. Weighted to the lapsed age mix, travel cost among lapsed volunteers rises from 40% to 47%; a scheduling main reason goes from 43% to 41%, still well ahead of travel cost (21%).
Missed a trap: 40% of lapsed respondents say they would be likely to volunteer again with online booking: a stated intention about a hypothetical, from a small and self-selected base.
Proposed a mistaken next step: Forecast how many lapsed volunteers will return from the likely-to-return answers
Proposed a mistaken next step: Set up a travel scheme for under-25s on the strength of the lapsed under-25 result

Findings the judges found unsupported

Implementing online shift booking is the most effective way to win back lost volunteers.Hypothetical return intentions from 112 self-selected respondents do not establish which intervention would be most effective or support forecasting roughly 400 returning volunteers. The 26.8% reimbursement result is also an intention, not an actual return rate.
Travel costs are a persistent annoyance for active volunteers, but they rarely cause them to quit.The data establish that travel cost was a less common main reason for stopping among lapsed respondents, not that it rarely causes active volunteers to quit. Calling it an annoyance also understates a potentially substantive financial barrier, especially given the age skew.

Scorecard

Numbers 12 of 12 right

Question		Its answer	True
What percentage of active volunteers who responded chose 'The cost of travelling to the site' as a difficulty in Q2?	✓	37.2%	37.2%
What percentage of lapsed volunteers who responded chose 'The cost of travelling to the site' as a difficulty in Q2?	✓	40.2%	40.2%
Is the difference between active and lapsed respondents in the share choosing 'The cost of travelling to the site' in Q2 statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
Weighted to the age mix of all 1,000 lapsed volunteers, what percentage of lapsed volunteers would choose 'The cost of travelling to the site' as a difficulty in Q2?	✓	47.4%	47.4%
What percentage of lapsed respondents gave a scheduling reason as their main reason for stopping in Q3 (either of its first two options: shifts changed at short notice, or hard to arrange shifts)?	✓	42.9%	42.9%
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on that unweighted share of lapsed respondents giving a scheduling reason as their main reason?	✓	9.2 points	9.17 points
On average, how many difficulties did each respondent choose in Q2 (counting every option except 'None of these', which counts as zero), across all respondents?	✓	1.55	1.55
What percentage of lapsed respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to volunteer again if they could arrange their shifts online (Q4)?	✓	40.2%	40.2%
How many of the open-text answers mention shift scheduling (booking or swapping shifts, or last-minute changes or cancellations)?	✓	37	34
What percentage of the active volunteers invited completed the survey?	✓	52.4%	52.4%
What percentage of the lapsed volunteers invited completed the survey?	✓	11.2%	11.2%
If the lapsed respondents were representative, about how many of the 1,000 lapsed volunteers would give a scheduling reason (either of the first two Q3 options) as their main reason, using the unweighted share?	✓	429	429

Traps in the data 5 of 8 handled

✗Travel cost is the most-cited difficulty overall, but it is cited about as often by active volunteers (37%) as by lapsed ones (40%), so it does not explain who left. Short-notice shift changes (14% active against 52% lapsed), no way to book or swap shifts and not being told about changes differ sharply.
✓The operations lead believes volunteers leave because of travel costs. Among lapsed respondents, 43% give a scheduling reason as their main reason against 12% travel cost.
✓Q2 is multi-select: respondents chose 1.6 difficulties on average, so columns add up to more than 100%.
✓52% of active volunteers responded but only 11% of lapsed ones, so the lapsed base is small (112) and those who replied may differ from the 89% who did not (for example, still feeling some attachment).
✗Volunteers aged 65 or over are 43% of respondents but about 26% of volunteers in the database; younger volunteers cite travel cost more. Weighted to the lapsed age mix, travel cost among lapsed volunteers rises from 40% to 47%; a scheduling main reason goes from 43% to 41%, still well ahead of travel cost (21%).
✓Lapsed under-25s (base 11) mostly give travel cost as their main reason (8 of 11).
✓The travel-cost gap between lapsed and active respondents (3.0 points) is not significant at 95%.
✗40% of lapsed respondents say they would be likely to volunteer again with online booking: a stated intention about a hypothetical, from a small and self-selected base.

The analysis

Recommendation

Allocate the budget to fund the part-time volunteer coordinator and implement the online shift booking system.

What would change it

If a pilot of the online booking system shows low adoption rates among older volunteers, or fails to significantly reduce volunteer churn and no-shows within the first few months, the budget should be split to include travel reimbursement experiments.

Findings

Scheduling issues, not travel costs, are the primary reason volunteers leave.

High confidenceBase 112

42.9% of lapsed volunteers cited scheduling (shifts changed at short notice or hard to arrange) as their main reason for stopping, compared to only 11.6% who cited travel costs.
Implementing online shift booking is the most effective way to win back lost volunteers.

High confidenceBase 112

40.2% of lapsed volunteers would be likely to return if they could book online, representing roughly 400 of the 1,000 lapsed volunteers. By comparison, only 26.8% would return if travel was reimbursed.
Travel costs are a persistent annoyance for active volunteers, but they rarely cause them to quit.

High confidenceBase 327

While 38.2% of all volunteers find travel costs difficult (the most mentioned difficulty), it was the main reason for quitting for only 11.6% of lapsed volunteers.
Travel cost is heavily cited as the biggest barrier for under-25s, but data on this group is too limited to be decisive.

Low confidenceBase 11

72.7% of the lapsed under-25s cited travel as the main reason they stopped, but this rests on just 11 respondents. Weighted, they represent 22% of the lapsed population.

Caveats

The response rate for lapsed volunteers was low (11.2%), introducing potential non-response bias. The views of those who didn't respond might differ from those who did.
The unweighted sample of lapsed volunteers overrepresents the 45+ age groups (71.4% of sample vs 48% of population), slightly skewing the raw data toward older volunteers' preferences.
The sample size for under-25 lapsed volunteers is extremely small (11 respondents), making findings about this group unreliable.

Next steps

decisionFund the part-time volunteer coordinator and roll out online booking.
researchInvestigate low-cost or non-monetary ways to support volunteers with travel and parking (e.g., carpooling boards, designated drop-off spots).
experimentRun a small-scale pilot of a targeted travel scheme for under-25s.

Open-text themes it coded

Shift scheduling, booking difficulties, and late notice 37Travel costs, fuel, and distance 25Parking issues and costs 6Content with current system 38

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 7 questions, as the model wrote them.

S1
When did you last volunteer for a shift at Riverside Food Network?
One answer
- In the last 3 months
- Between 3 and 12 months ago
- More than 12 months ago
- I have never volunteered here
Continues if In the last 3 months; Between 3 and 12 months ago
Q1
Which Riverside Food Network distribution site do (or did) you normally volunteer at?
One answer
- Site 1
- Site 2
- Site 3
- Site 4
- Site 5
- Site 6
- Site 7
- Site 8
- Site 9
- Multiple sites equally
- Not sure
Q2
Which of the following age groups do you belong to?
One answer
- 16-24
- 25-34
- 35-44
- 45-54
- 55-64
- 65 or older
- Prefer not to say
Q3
Roughly how much does it cost you in travel and parking (e.g., bus fares, petrol) to attend a single volunteer shift?
One answer
- £0 (I walk, cycle, or have a free pass)
- Under £2
- £2 to £4.99
- £5 to £9.99
- £10 or more
- Can't remember / Don't know
Q4
Which, if any, of the following have you found difficult or frustrating while volunteering with us? Please select all that apply.
Any that apply
- Paying for travel (bus fares, parking, petrol)
- The process of booking or swapping shifts via phone/message
- Getting hold of the site lead when needed
- Finding shifts that fit my schedule
- The physical demands of sorting and handing out food
- I have not experienced any difficulties
Q5
What were the main reasons you stopped volunteering with us? Please select all that apply.
Any that apply
- The cost of travel to and from the site
- Difficulties booking, swapping, or managing my shifts
- Changes in my personal schedule or lack of time
- Moved away or the travel distance was too far
- Health reasons or physical demands of the role
- Found another volunteering opportunity
- Other
Routing Shown only if S1 is: Between 3 and 12 months ago

Judges: assumptive
Having last volunteered between 3 and 12 months ago does not establish that someone has stopped volunteering. Conversely, someone who stopped within the last 3 months will not see this question.
It is shown to everyone whose last shift was 3 to 12 months ago and assumes they have stopped volunteering. Occasional volunteers who simply have not booked a shift recently may still see themselves as active, so they have no true reasons to give.
Q6
Which of these improvements would make you most likely to start volunteering with us again?
One answer
- Having my travel and parking costs fully reimbursed
- An online system to easily book and swap shifts
- A combination of partial travel reimbursement and an online booking system
- None of the above would make me return
Routing Shown only if S1 is: Between 3 and 12 months ago

Judges: assumptive
The routing assumes that everyone whose last shift was between 3 and 12 months ago has stopped and needs to restart. It also excludes people who stopped within the last 3 months.
It has the same display logic as Q5 and asks what would make them 'start volunteering again'. This presumes that everyone with no shift in 3 to 12 months has lapsed.
Q7
Riverside Food Network has a fixed budget of £45,000 next year to improve volunteer support. If you had to choose, how do you think we should spend this?
One answer
- Spend it all on reimbursing volunteers' travel and parking costs
- Spend it all to fund a part-time volunteer coordinator and a new online shift booking system
- Split it to provide partial travel reimbursement and a basic online booking system
- Not sure

Sample plan

Invite all 1,410 eligible volunteers (410 active, 1,000 lapsed) via email and SMS. Target approximately 330 completes total. Set soft quotas of ~36 completes per site to ensure baseline coverage across all 9 locations. NOTE ON PRECISION CONSTRAINTS: To achieve the trustees' desired precision of +/- 7% at 95% confidence for EACH of the 9 sites, applying a finite population correction (pop ~156 per site), would mathematically require ~87 completes per site (~783 total completes). Because the constraint limits the sample to ~330 total completes (~36 per site), the actual margin of error at the individual site level will be roughly +/- 14%. Stakeholders must be informed of this statistical limitation regarding the site-level precision.