Gemini 3.8 Flash: What Hollinbrook residents think of three-weekly bin collections

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. The Council Leader cannot claim majority backing: district residents are divided in a statistical dead-heat between opposition and support, and an outright district-wide rollout without support has very low appeal.

   High confidenceBase 422

   On the representative residents' panel, 40.8% support vs 45.3% oppose the change at Q2 (margin of error +/-4.7 percentage points, making them statistically indistinguishable). When asked for their most preferred option at Q4, only 22.0% of the panel chose moving to three-weekly across the whole district without support.

2. The Cabinet Member's instinct to drop the proposal based on 77.5% consultation opposition is flawed: the open consultation is heavily skewed by geographic self-selection and an organised local campaign.

   High confidenceBase 1740

   Brookfield represents 38.0% of consultation respondents despite being only 12% of the district's households, and 209 open-text comments (15.9% of all consultation responses and 50.1% of all open-text comments) were exact or near-exact copies of a template circulated by Keep Brookfield Tidy. On the demographically matched panel, only 24.6% want to keep fortnightly collections, meaning 71.1% favour moving to three-weekly collections in some form (22.0% district-wide, 23.7% with extra support, 25.4% via a phased trial).

3. The Head of Waste Services' hypothesis that larger bins would win over opponents is incorrect: offering larger bins would fail to flip most opponents and risks defeating the waste-reduction objective.

   High confidenceBase 422

   At Q3, among panel opponents, 61.3% would still oppose three-weekly collections even with a free larger bin; only 22.5% would switch to support. Across the total panel, offering larger bins brings over only 10.2% of residents, leaving net support under 51% while providing increased landfill capacity that disincentivises recycling.

4. Opposition is heavily concentrated among households with infants or medical hygiene needs, but targeted service support neutralises their resistance.

   High confidenceBase 54

   Panel households with under-3s or hygiene products oppose three-weekly collections overwhelmingly at baseline (74.1% oppose, 44.4% strongly oppose). However, when offered tailored support at Q4, 55.6% choose 'three-weekly with extra support' as their preferred policy, while only 25.9% prefer retaining fortnightly collections.

5. The policy has strong potential to drive recycling behaviour across the district.

   High confidenceBase 422

   40.5% of the panel report they are very or fairly likely to recycle more under three-weekly collections, and another 11.8% state they already recycle everything possible. Only 29.1% say they are unlikely to recycle more.

Open-text themes it coded

Coordinated campaign template text (Keep Brookfield Tidy) 209Bin capacity and overflowing bins in larger households 62Hygiene, smell, flies, maggots, and vermin risks 34Council tax, value for money, and perceived cuts to service 39Environmental support and incentive to recycle more 57Fear of increased fly-tipping and roadside dumping 15Minimal impact on small or low-waste households 16

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 9 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Are you aged 18 or over?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No

   Continues if Yes

2. S2

   Do you live within the Hollinbrook District Council area?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No
   • Don't know

   Continues if Yes

3. S3

   Which ward in Hollinbrook do you live in? (If unsure, please enter the first part of your postcode below)

   One answer
   • Hollinbrook Central
   • Hollinbrook North & Rural
   • Highgate & Parkside
   • Meadow Vale
   • Stourford & Riverside
   • Westwood & Abbey
   • Not sure / Prefer to enter postcode

   Continues if Hollinbrook Central; Hollinbrook North & Rural; Highgate & Parkside; Meadow Vale; Stourford & Riverside; Westwood & Abbey; Not sure / Prefer to enter postcode

4. Q1

   Which of the following apply to your household? (Select all that apply)

   Any that apply
   • Children in nappies (aged under 3)
   • Someone who uses medical, continence, or sanitary hygiene products producing regular waste
   • Five or more people living in the home
   • Limited outdoor storage space for bins (e.g. flat, terraced house with no front garden/rear access)
   • None of these apply to my household
5. Q2

   On average, how full is your black general waste bin when it is collected every two weeks?

   One answer
   • Overflowing (the lid does not close fully / extra bags placed alongside)
   • Completely full (lid closes)
   • About three-quarters full
   • About half full
   • Less than half full
   Judges: assumptive

   Assumes every eligible household uses a black bin collected fortnightly and can assess its fullness. Residents using communal bins or other arrangements have no applicable response.

   Assumes every respondent has their own black bin collected fortnightly. Residents of flats who use communal bins, a group Q1 explicitly anticipates, cannot answer meaningfully.

6. Q3

   The council is proposing to collect black general waste bins every three weeks instead of every two weeks, to help save £600k per year and encourage more recycling. Food waste would continue to be collected every week, and dry recycling every two weeks. To what extent do you support or oppose moving general waste collections to every three weeks?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Strongly oppose to Strongly support

   Judges: leading

   Immediately frames the proposal with financial and recycling benefits, without corresponding drawbacks, before measuring support.

   The preamble presents only benefits: saving £600k and, stated as fact, encouraging more recycling. It gives no drawbacks just before asking for support, which steers respondents towards supporting the change.

7. Q4

   If black general waste bins were collected every three weeks, what impact, if any, would this have on your household? (Select up to three main concerns)

   Any that apply
   • No noticeable impact / manageable for our household
   • Not enough space in the black bin for our general waste
   • Smells or hygiene concerns (e.g. from nappies or incontinence products)
   • Smells or pest issues from general rubbish
   • Difficulty storing additional waste outside
   • Confusion about collection dates / calendar changes
   • Other
8. Q5

   If general waste collections moved to every three weeks, how likely would your household be to increase the amount of food waste and dry recycling you separate?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Much less likely to Much more likely

   Judges: double-barrelled

   Requires one likelihood rating for increasing food-waste separation and dry recycling, although a household's response could differ between the two.

   Combines food waste and dry recycling in one answer. The scale anchors ('Much less likely' to 'Much more likely') do not fit the question 'how likely would your household be to increase', so a respondent could read the scale as likelihood or as direction of change.

9. Q6

   Would any of the following support measures make a three-weekly general waste collection more acceptable to your household? (Select all that apply)

   Any that apply
   • A free separate, frequent collection for disposable nappies and hygiene/continence waste
   • An option to request a larger general waste bin for households of 5+ or with special needs
   • An extra or larger recycling bin/box at no extra cost
   • Clearer guides on what can and cannot be recycled
   • None of these would make it acceptable to me
   • I already support the change without needing extra support
10. Q7

    Council members must decide between four possible approaches in the autumn. Which of the following options would you most prefer Hollinbrook District Council to take?

    One answer
    • Option A: Move to three-weekly collections across the whole district as proposed
    • Option B: Move to three-weekly collections, but with extra support (e.g. larger bins or separate hygiene collections) for qualifying households
    • Option C: Pilot three-weekly collections in selected areas first to test how it works before rolling out district-wide
    • Option D: Keep collections every two weeks, and find the £600,000 savings from other council services
    Judges: leading

    Keeping fortnightly collections is explicitly tied to finding savings from other council services, making that option less attractive. The pilot option also presupposes eventual district-wide rollout rather than leaving its outcome open.

    Only Option D (dropping the proposal) carries a stated cost, 'find the £600,000 savings from other council services', which implies cuts elsewhere. Options A–C have no trade-offs attached, which tilts respondents away from D.

11. Q8

    Please explain the reason for your choice in the previous question, or share any specific suggestions for managing household waste in Hollinbrook.

    Open text
12. Q9

    What type of home do you live in, and what is your housing tenure?

    One answer
    • House / bungalow - Owned (outright or with mortgage)
    • House / bungalow - Rented (council, housing association, or private)
    • Flat / apartment / maisonette - Owned or rented
    • Other
    Judges: double-barrelled

    Asks for both dwelling type and tenure, but the flat/apartment/maisonette response combines owned and rented homes, so those respondents cannot report their tenure.

    Asks about dwelling type and tenure in one item. Owned and rented flats are merged, and council, housing association and private renting are merged, so tenure cannot be recovered for weighting against the panel's tenure profile.