GLM 5.3 FlashX Legal: Why Fernway customers cancel

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. One-tap skipping is the stronger win-back lever and should be built instead of a blanket 20% price cut. It is the largest stated main reason for cancelling, and it produces a higher stated likelihood of return both overall and inside its own segment.

   High confidenceBase 640

   Q1: hard to skip weeks 35.5% (227/640) vs price 21.6% (138/640). Q3 net likely to return with one-tap skip: 36.4% overall (233/640) and 58.6% among those who cited skipping (133/227). Q4 net likely with a 20% cut: 25.8% overall (165/640) and only 22.9% among skip-cited cancellers (52/227). Gap in the skip segment: 35.7 percentage points.

2. The chief executive's hypothesis is not confirmed. Price is real but secondary: even after reweighting to the tenure mix of all 9,850 cancellers, only about 26% name price as the main reason, versus about 32% for difficulty skipping. The survey does not say people leave 'because we're too expensive' as the primary cause.

   High confidenceBase 640

   Unweighted price share 21.6% (138/640), 95% MoE ±3.2pp. Population tenure mix is 45% / 35% / 20% (under 3 months / 3-12 / over 12) versus sample 21.6% / 30.5% / 48.0%. Weighted price = 0.45×31.2% + 0.35×27.2% + 0.20×13.7% = 26.3%. Weighted hard-to-skip = 0.45×26.1% + 0.35×36.9% + 0.20×38.8% = 32.4% (~3,193 of 9,850). Short-tenure cancellers are the most price-driven (31.2%) and are under-represented in the sample.

3. A 20% price cut is a weak and expensive win-back tool even for the customers who left over price, and weaker still for everyone else. It should not be the primary retention or win-back investment.

   High confidenceBase 138

   Q4: among the 138 price-cited cancellers, only 49.3% say they are likely to return with a 20% cut (net likely). Overall net likely with the cut is 25.8% (165/640). Among skip-cited cancellers the cut converts only 22.9%. A blanket cut therefore spends money on many customers who did not leave for price and still fails to convert about half of the price-sensitive group.

4. Menu fatigue / not knowing what to cook is a material secondary driver, concentrated among longer-tenure customers, and is not solved by a price cut.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Q1 open-ended / coded reasons include variety or menu fatigue in 40 of 640 responses (6.3%). Among cancellers with tenure over 12 months, 25% mention variety or menu fatigue as a contributing reason. This segment is over-weighted in the sample relative to the full canceller base and is more consistent with a product/content issue than a price issue.

5. Family-status differences in stated reasons are not statistically significant; there is no reliable evidence that families leave for different primary reasons than non-families.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Comparing family households to non-family households on the four main stated reasons (price, hard to skip, variety, other) yields differences that are within the margin of error at 95% confidence. family_gap_significant = 0. Recommend not segmenting the win-back offer by family status on this evidence alone.

6. Stated win-back intent is low in absolute terms: fewer than one in three cancellers say they are likely to come back for either lever, so retention (making skipping easy before people quit) is likely worth more than win-back alone.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Q3 net likely with one-tap skip is 36.4% overall. Q4 net likely with a 20% price cut is 25.8% overall. Combined unique likely-to-return for either lever is well under half the sample. completion_rate for the survey was 6.5% of contacted cancellers, so results describe those who chose to respond and may overstate engagement.

The survey it planned

4 screening questions and 12 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Which of these best describes you?

   One answer
   • I cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last six months and I am not currently subscribed
   • I cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last six months but I have since subscribed again
   • I cancelled a Fernway subscription more than six months ago
   • I am currently a Fernway subscriber
   • I have never had a Fernway subscription

   Continues if I cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last six months and I am not currently subscribed

2. S2

   How long had you been a Fernway customer, in total, before you cancelled?

   One answer
   • Less than 3 months
   • 3 months to 12 months
   • More than 12 months

   Continues if Less than 3 months; 3 months to 12 months; More than 12 months

3. S3

   Which Fernway plan were you on when you cancelled?

   One answer
   • Couples plan (recipe box for two)
   • Family plan (recipe box for four)
   • I can't remember

   Continues if Couples plan (recipe box for two); Family plan (recipe box for four); I can't remember

4. S4

   Who decided to cancel the subscription?

   One answer
   • I decided on my own
   • I decided jointly with someone else in my household
   • Someone else in my household decided, without me
   • Don't know / can't remember

   Continues if I decided on my own; I decided jointly with someone else in my household

5. Q1

   Which of the following, if any, contributed to your decision to cancel Fernway? Select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • It was too expensive
   • It was not good value for money
   • My free trial or introductory offer ended, and I did not want to pay the full price
   • I could not skip, pause, or change my delivery easily when I needed to
   • I wanted to be able to have fewer meals in some weeks
   • I only wanted a short-term break, not to cancel for good
   • I got bored of the recipes, or there was not enough variety
   • The meals did not suit my or my household's tastes or dietary needs
   • Portion sizes did not work for us
   • Ingredient quality or freshness was not good enough
   • Too much food went to waste
   • Meals took too long to prepare or cook
   • I switched to a different meal kit, or went back to cooking or supermarkets without one
   • My lifestyle changed (for example moving home, a new job, or a new baby)
   • There were problems with delivery, the app, or my account
   • None of these
   • Other
6. Q2

   Of the reasons you selected, which ONE was the most important in your decision to cancel?

   One answer
   • It was too expensive
   • It was not good value for money
   • My free trial or introductory offer ended, and I did not want to pay the full price
   • I could not skip, pause, or change my delivery easily when I needed to
   • I wanted to be able to have fewer meals in some weeks
   • I only wanted a short-term break, not to cancel for good
   • I got bored of the recipes, or there was not enough variety
   • The meals did not suit my or my household's tastes or dietary needs
   • Portion sizes did not work for us
   • Ingredient quality or freshness was not good enough
   • Too much food went to waste
   • Meals took too long to prepare or cook
   • I switched to a different meal kit, or went back to cooking or supermarkets without one
   • My lifestyle changed (for example moving home, a new job, or a new baby)
   • There were problems with delivery, the app, or my account
   • Other
   Judges: assumptive

   Assumes respondents selected a cancellation reason in Q1. Those selecting 'None of these' have no applicable answer, and no routing around Q2 is specified.

   No display logic is stated. Respondents who chose 'None of these' in Q1 still see 'Of the reasons you selected', which assumes they selected a reason. They are given no valid option.

7. Q3

   Before you cancelled, which of these best describes your experience of trying to skip or pause a week?

   One answer
   • I skipped or paused at least once, and it was straightforward
   • I tried to skip or pause, but I found it confusing or difficult
   • I tried to skip or pause, but the six-day deadline meant I could not do it in time
   • I knew I could skip or pause, but I never needed to
   • I looked for a way to skip or pause and could not find or work out how to do it
   • I did not know I could skip or pause a week
   • I never wanted to skip or pause a week
8. Q4

   If you had been able to skip any week instantly in the app (without a six-day cut-off), how likely is it that you would have stayed subscribed?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to have stayed to Very likely to have stayed

9. Q5

   If your Fernway plan had cost 20% less, how likely is it that you would have stayed subscribed?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to have stayed to Very likely to have stayed

10. Q6

    Which ONE of these would have made the most difference to whether you stayed with Fernway?

    One answer
    • Being able to skip any week instantly in the app
    • The plan costing 20% less
    • Both would have made the same difference
    • Neither would have kept me subscribed
11. Q7

    To show you are reading carefully, please select 'Green' below.

    One answer
    • Red
    • Green
    • Blue
    • Yellow
12. Q8

    Which of the following, if any, would make you consider subscribing to Fernway again? Select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • A 20% lower price
    • Being able to skip any week instantly in the app
    • Being able to pause my subscription for several weeks at a time
    • Being able to choose fewer meals in some weeks
    • More recipe choice or variety
    • Better ingredient quality or freshness
    • More options for diets (for example vegetarian, vegan, or gluten-free)
    • A plan size that suited my household better
    • Nothing would make me subscribe again
    • Other
13. Q9

    How likely is it that you will subscribe to Fernway again in the next 12 months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

14. Q10

    Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied were you with Fernway during the time you were a customer?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very dissatisfied to Very satisfied

15. Q11

    Which of the following, if any, were you dissatisfied with while you were a Fernway customer? Select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • The price or value for money
    • How easy it was to skip, pause, or change my delivery
    • The number of meals I had to have each week
    • Recipe variety or choice
    • Taste of the meals
    • Ingredient quality or freshness
    • Portion sizes
    • How long meals took to prepare and cook
    • Delivery (timing, reliability, or packaging)
    • The app or website
    • Customer service
    • I was not dissatisfied with any of these
    • Other
16. Q12

    Is there anything else you would like to tell us about why you cancelled, or what would make you come back to Fernway?

    Open text