Muse Wonder: Why Fernway customers cancel

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. Build one-tap skipping before a blanket 20% price cut: hard to skip is the largest stated reason for leaving and the intervention with the larger stated win-back response.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Q1: Hard to skip 35.5% unweighted, 32.4% tenure-weighted vs Price 21.6% unweighted, 26.3% weighted. Q3 net likely to return with one-tap skip 36.4% vs Q4 25.8% with 20% less. Among hard-to-skip leavers 58.6% would likely return with one-tap skip vs 22.9% with a price cut, a 35.7pp gap.

2. CEO question: No, price is important but is not the main confirmed reason people leave. It is second, and a price cut mainly appeals to the minority who left for price.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Price is 21.6% unweighted, 26.3% after tenure weighting (95% margin approx +/-3.2pp unweighted). Among price leavers, 49.3% say likely to return at 20% less, but price leavers are only 138 respondents; among all others the price-cut likely-return share is 9.7-22.9%. Open text also contains many price-rise, introductory-price and loyalty complaints, suggesting targeted price fairness may matter more than a universal cut.

3. Head of Product question: There is no evidence the Family plan itself is the satisfaction problem. The apparent Family gap is a tenure-mix artefact.

   High confidenceBase 640

   Net satisfied: Couples 53.4% (n=339) vs Family 49.2% (n=301), difference 4.2pp, not significant at 95% (approx +/-7.8pp for the difference). Within tenure, Family is equal or higher: Under 3m 69.2% vs 66.1%, 3-12m 61.6% vs 57.4%, Over 12m 42.1% vs 35.2%. Family respondents are disproportionately long-tenure, and long-tenure satisfaction is much lower overall.

4. Satisfaction and reasons deteriorate/change with tenure: long-tenure customers are less satisfied and more likely to cite repetitiveness and skipping difficulty, while early leavers are more price- and delivery-sensitive.

   Medium confidenceBase 640

   Net satisfied falls from 66.7% under 3 months and 59.0% at 3-12 months to 39.7% over 12 months. Recipes repetitive rises 6.5% to 14.4% to 25.4%; hard to skip rises 26.1% to 36.9% to 38.8%; price falls 31.2% to 27.2% to 13.7%. This is consistent with novelty wearing off and flexibility needs accumulating, not proof of causation.

5. Operations Director question: Northern Ireland shows a strong delivery warning signal, but the survey base is far too small to diagnose a Northern Ireland delivery problem.

   Low confidenceBase 12

   Delivery problems as main reason: Northern Ireland 66.7% but base n=12, i.e. 8 respondents, vs England 8.1% (n=546), Scotland 13.0% (n=46), Wales 0.0% (n=36). The NI estimate has a very wide interval; operational delivery data by region must be checked before acting.

6. Open text reveals a related unmet need not directly tested in Q3/Q4: reducing or varying the number of meals, not only skipping whole weeks.

   Medium confidenceBase 190

   190 open-text answers include repeated requests for two-meal, one-meal, fortnightly and variable-quantity options, e.g. R007, R011, R059, R098, R138, R206, R270, R328, R361, R634. This may be part of the same flexibility problem as skipping and could increase the value, or change the design, of the flexibility work.

7. Recipe variety is a material retention issue, especially for long-tenure customers, and neither candidate decision directly fixes it.

   Medium confidenceBase 190

   Recipes got repetitive is 18.0% overall as main reason and 25.4% over 12 months. In open text, 40 of 190 answers mention variety/repetitiveness, 25 of them from over-12-month customers. Among repetitive-recipe leavers, neither one-tap skip (28.7% likely) nor 20% price cut (19.1% likely) recovers a majority.

8. Stated likelihood to return is not a forecast of actual return. Both options leave most leavers unlikely or neutral, so neither should be sold internally as recovering most cancellers.

   High confidenceBase 640

   Even the stronger option, one-tap skip, has only 36.4% net likely overall, with 41-42% unlikely and 21.2% neutral. For price cut the equivalent is 25.8% likely and 51.2% unlikely. Q3/Q4 are hypothetical, unpriced against real behaviour and subject to intention-behaviour gap.

Open-text themes it coded

Easy skip, pause or holiday hold 46Price, value, price rises or loyalty discounts 42Recipe variety or repetitive recipes 40Fewer, smaller or variable number of meals per week 28Delivery reliability or missing items 16Portion sizes too small or adjustable portions 12Packaging waste or non-recyclable packaging 19Nothing - life circumstances changed 6

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 12 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Which of the following best describes you?

   One answer
   • I cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last 6 months
   • I currently have a Fernway subscription and have not cancelled it
   • I paused a Fernway subscription but did not cancel it
   • I have never had a Fernway subscription
   • Someone else in my household cancelled a Fernway subscription, but I did not

   Continues if I cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last 6 months

2. S2

   Where do you currently live?

   One answer
   • England
   • Scotland
   • Wales
   • Northern Ireland
   • Outside the United Kingdom

   Continues if England; Scotland; Wales; Northern Ireland

3. S3

   Are you aged 18 or over?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No

   Continues if Yes

4. Q1

   Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied were you with Fernway while you were subscribed?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Very dissatisfied to Very satisfied

5. Q2

   In your own words, why did you cancel your Fernway subscription? Please be as specific as you can.

   Open text
6. Q3

   Which of the following, if any, were reasons why you cancelled your Fernway subscription? Please select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • It was too expensive for my budget
   • I did not think it was good value for money
   • I could not easily skip weeks I did not want
   • I could not easily pause my subscription
   • The plans did not offer a smaller number of meals per week that suited me
   • I did not enjoy the recipes, or there was not enough choice
   • The quality or freshness of the ingredients was not good enough
   • The portion sizes did not suit my household
   • The recipes took too much time or effort to cook
   • There was too much packaging or food waste
   • Deliveries were unreliable or at inconvenient times
   • My household circumstances changed
   • I only wanted to use an introductory offer
   • I found another way of eating that suited me better
   • Another reason not listed here
   • None of these
   Judges: double-barrelled

   Several options combine distinct cancellation reasons into one answer: recipe enjoyment versus choice, packaging versus food waste, and delivery reliability versus inconvenient timing. Selecting an option does not identify which reason applied.

   Several options combine two distinct reasons (e.g., 'packaging or food waste', 'unreliable or at inconvenient times', 'did not enjoy the recipes, or there was not enough choice').

7. Q4

   And which one of these was the single most important reason why you cancelled your Fernway subscription? Please select one answer.

   One answer
   • It was too expensive for my budget
   • I did not think it was good value for money
   • I could not easily skip weeks I did not want
   • I could not easily pause my subscription
   • The plans did not offer a smaller number of meals per week that suited me
   • I did not enjoy the recipes, or there was not enough choice
   • The quality or freshness of the ingredients was not good enough
   • The portion sizes did not suit my household
   • The recipes took too much time or effort to cook
   • There was too much packaging or food waste
   • Deliveries were unreliable or at inconvenient times
   • My household circumstances changed
   • I only wanted to use an introductory offer
   • I found another way of eating that suited me better
   • Another reason not listed here
   • None of these
   Judges: double-barrelled

   Several options combine distinct reasons, so the answer cannot identify a single most important reason—for example, recipe enjoyment versus choice or delivery reliability versus inconvenient timing.

   Uses the same double-barrelled options as Q3.

8. Q5

   To check that you are reading the questions carefully, please select ‘Blue’ from the list below.

   One answer
   • Red
   • Blue
   • Green
   • Yellow
9. Q6

   If Fernway stayed exactly as it was when you cancelled, how likely or unlikely would you be to rejoin in the next 6 months?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

10. Q7

    Please rank the following possible changes from 1 (most likely to make you consider rejoining Fernway) to 5 (least likely to make you consider rejoining Fernway). Please use each number once.

    Ranking
    • Being able to skip any week with one tap in the app, without changing your delivery at least six days ahead
    • A 20% reduction in the price of the Couples and Family plans
    • Being able to pause your subscription for several weeks at a time and restart it when you choose
    • Being able to order fewer meals per week than the current plans offer
    • A wider choice of recipes each week
11. Q8

    If the only change Fernway made was to let you skip any week with one tap in the app, how likely or unlikely would you be to rejoin in the next 6 months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

12. Q9

    If the only change Fernway made was to reduce the price of its plans by 20%, how likely or unlikely would you be to rejoin in the next 6 months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

13. Q10

    If Fernway could make only one of the following changes, which one, if any, would make you most likely to rejoin? Please select one answer.

    One answer
    • Let you skip any week with one tap in the app
    • Reduce the price of its plans by 20%
    • I would need both of these changes to consider rejoining
    • Neither of these changes would make me likely to rejoin
    • I would only consider rejoining if something else changed
14. Q11

    For about how long were you a Fernway customer before you cancelled?

    One answer
    • Less than 3 months
    • 3 to 12 months
    • More than 12 months
    • I don’t remember
15. Q12

    Which Fernway plan were you on most recently before you cancelled?

    One answer
    • Couples plan (recipe box for two)
    • Family plan (recipe box for four)
    • I was on both at different times
    • I don’t remember