Why Fernway customers cancel

Fernway, a UK meal-kit subscription: recipe boxes for two (Couples plan) or four (Family plan) delivered weekly.

Sound research: 2 of 8 models
Respondents: 640
Set numeric questions: 11
Traps planted: 8

What each model made of it

Part 1: the brief each model planned a survey for

Monthly cancellations have risen from 6% to 9% of subscribers over the past year. Customers can skip a week only by changing their delivery in the app at least six days ahead.

The decision

Whether to build one-tap skipping of any week (about four months of product work) or cut the price of the plans by 20%, to win back and keep customers.

Objectives

Why customers cancel, and how this differs by how long they were customers
How much flexibility (pausing, skipping, fewer meals) matters compared with price
Which former customers could be won back, and by what
How satisfied customers were with the product while subscribed

Who to survey

UK customers who cancelled a Fernway subscription in the last six months

Limits

At most 12 questions after the screener and 6 minutes; about 600 completes; email invitation to every customer who cancelled in the period, from the customer database (Fernway delivers only in the UK); online questionnaire.

Precision asked for

The board wants results for each tenure group (under 3 months, 3-12 months, over 12 months) to within plus or minus 5 percentage points at 95% confidence.

A note from the stakeholder

The chief executive is certain customers leave because Fernway is too expensive and wants the survey to show the board that a price cut is the answer.

Part 2: the fielded survey every model analysed

Every model analyses the same survey and the same simulated responses, so every true number is known. This is what they were given.

The survey that was fielded (10 questions)

S1
In the last six months, have you cancelled a Fernway subscription?
One answer
- Yes
- No
- Not sure
Continues if Yes
S2
Do you live in the UK?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
Q1
What was the main reason you cancelled?
One answer
- Price
- Hard to skip weeks
- Recipes got repetitive
- Delivery problems
- Portion sizes
- Packaging waste
- Other
Q2
Overall, how satisfied were you with Fernway while you were a customer?
Scale

Scale 1-5: Very dissatisfied to Very satisfied
Q3
If you could skip any week with one tap in the app, how likely would you be to come back to Fernway?
Scale

Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely
Q4
If your Fernway plan cost 20% less, with the same recipes and portions, how likely would you be to come back?
Scale

Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely
Q5
What, if anything, would have made you stay with Fernway?
Open text
Q6
How long were you a Fernway customer?
One answer
- Under 3 months
- 3-12 months
- Over 12 months
Q7
Which plan were you on when you cancelled?
One answer
- Couples
- Family
Q8
Where do you live?
One answer
- England
- Scotland
- Wales
- Northern Ireland

Fielding. Emailed to 9,850 customers who cancelled between March and August 2025, from 1 to 14 September 2025. 702 started and 640 completed (median 5 minutes 20 seconds). Tables show the 640 completes, unweighted. Percentages are of each column's base.

Population. All 9,850 customers who cancelled in the period, from the customer database: tenure under 3 months 45%, 3-12 months 35%, over 12 months 20%; Couples plan 66%, Family plan 34%.

The stakeholders asked:

The chief executive: 'People leave because we're too expensive. Does the survey confirm it?'
The head of product: 'Is the Family plan the problem? Its satisfaction looks low.'
The operations director: 'Do we have a delivery problem in Northern Ireland?'

The tables (8)

Q1 Main reason for cancelling

	Total	Under 3 months	3-12 months	Over 12 months	Couples	Family	England	Scotland	Wales	Northern Ireland
Base	640	138	195	307	339	301	546	46	36	12
Price	21.6%	31.2%	27.2%	13.7%	23.6%	19.3%	21.6%	30.4%	16.7%	0.0%
Hard to skip weeks	35.5%	26.1%	36.9%	38.8%	35.7%	35.2%	36.3%	28.3%	38.9%	16.7%
Recipes got repetitive	18.0%	6.5%	14.4%	25.4%	13.0%	23.6%	17.9%	10.9%	27.8%	16.7%
Delivery problems	9.1%	15.2%	8.7%	6.5%	10.0%	8.0%	8.1%	13.0%	0.0%	66.7%
Portion sizes	6.7%	10.1%	5.1%	6.2%	7.7%	5.6%	7.1%	2.2%	8.3%	0.0%
Packaging waste	4.8%	6.5%	4.1%	4.6%	5.9%	3.7%	4.8%	8.7%	2.8%	0.0%
Other	4.4%	4.3%	3.6%	4.9%	4.1%	4.7%	4.2%	6.5%	5.6%	0.0%

Q2 Overall satisfaction while a customer

	Total	Under 3 months	3-12 months	Over 12 months	Couples	Family
Base	640	138	195	307	339	301
Very dissatisfied	14.8%	10.1%	11.8%	18.9%	14.5%	15.3%
Fairly dissatisfied	16.4%	10.9%	15.9%	19.2%	15.3%	17.6%
Neither	17.3%	12.3%	13.3%	22.1%	16.8%	17.9%
Fairly satisfied	28.6%	35.5%	32.8%	22.8%	28.0%	29.2%
Very satisfied	22.8%	31.2%	26.2%	16.9%	25.4%	19.9%
Net: satisfied (4-5)	51.4%	66.7%	59.0%	39.7%	53.4%	49.2%

Q2 Satisfied (4-5), by plan within tenure

	Total	Under 3 months / Couples	Under 3 months / Family	3-12 months / Couples	3-12 months / Family	Over 12 months / Couples	Over 12 months / Family
Base	640	112	26	122	73	105	202
Net: satisfied (4-5)	51.4%	66.1%	69.2%	57.4%	61.6%	35.2%	42.1%

Q3 Likelihood of coming back if any week could be skipped with one tap

	Total	Price	Hard to skip weeks	Recipes got repetitive	Delivery problems	Portion sizes	Packaging waste	Other
Base	640	138	227	115	58	43	31	28
Very unlikely	20.5%	27.5%	10.1%	21.7%	29.3%	23.3%	32.3%	28.6%
Fairly unlikely	21.9%	23.9%	16.3%	26.1%	32.8%	20.9%	25.8%	14.3%
Neither likely nor unlikely	21.2%	23.9%	15.0%	23.5%	20.7%	27.9%	29.0%	32.1%
Fairly likely	22.0%	16.7%	34.4%	19.1%	8.6%	14.0%	6.5%	17.9%
Very likely	14.4%	8.0%	24.2%	9.6%	8.6%	14.0%	6.5%	7.1%
Net: likely (4-5)	36.4%	24.6%	58.6%	28.7%	17.2%	27.9%	12.9%	25.0%

Q4 Likelihood of coming back if the same plan cost 20% less

	Total	Price	Hard to skip weeks	Recipes got repetitive	Delivery problems	Portion sizes	Packaging waste	Other
Base	640	138	227	115	58	43	31	28
Very unlikely	21.4%	15.2%	22.5%	26.1%	17.2%	23.3%	22.6%	28.6%
Fairly unlikely	29.8%	19.6%	32.2%	26.1%	36.2%	41.9%	32.3%	42.9%
Neither likely nor unlikely	23.0%	15.9%	22.5%	28.7%	24.1%	23.3%	35.5%	21.4%
Fairly likely	14.4%	27.5%	14.1%	10.4%	12.1%	4.7%	0.0%	3.6%
Very likely	11.4%	21.7%	8.8%	8.7%	10.3%	7.0%	9.7%	3.6%
Net: likely (4-5)	25.8%	49.3%	22.9%	19.1%	22.4%	11.6%	9.7%	7.1%

Q6-Q8 Sample profile: tenure

	Total
Base	640
Under 3 months	21.6%
3-12 months	30.5%
Over 12 months	48.0%

Q6-Q8 Sample profile: plan

	Total
Base	640
Couples	53.0%
Family	47.0%

Q6-Q8 Sample profile: region

	Total
Base	640
England	85.3%
Scotland	7.2%
Wales	5.6%
Northern Ireland	1.9%

Open-text answers to Q5. What, if anything, would have made you stay with Fernway? (12 of 190 shown)

R007 · Under 3 months, Couples, England My main issue was too many meals arriving. Cutting it down to three, maybe even two, would have kept me.
R011 · 3-12 months, Couples, England Cutting down to two dinners a week. We were drowning in ingredients by Sunday and the fridge was constantly full.
R012 · 3-12 months, Family, England if the box had just arrived on the day i chose, i'd still be paying them
R014 · 3-12 months, Couples, Scotland Just a larger pool of recipes to pick from each week, as the choices barely changed from one week to the next.
R021 · Under 3 months, Couples, England Bigger portions. Two of us were still hungry after every single meal, so we kept having to make extra pasta or toast on the side.
R028 · Over 12 months, Family, England Wider range of dishes, especially fish ones, which seemed to be the same two each time.
R030 · Over 12 months, Family, England if the portions were actually big enough for a grown man who works on building sites. I was eating my dinner and then a sandwich an hour later
R031 · Over 12 months, Family, England Weekly was too often for us. Fortnightly boxes, or the freedom to skip alternate weeks easily, would have suited far better.
R033 · Under 3 months, Couples, England I needed a way to put the subscription on hold while my shifts changed. Having to cancel and restart felt silly.
R038 · Under 3 months, Couples, England recipe variety, i ended up skipping weeks because nothing new was on offer
R040 · 3-12 months, Couples, Scotland Honestly just a simpler way to skip weeks. I ended up cancelling because it felt like admin every single week.
R041 · 3-12 months, Family, Scotland If it was more affordable.

The numeric questions every model answered

What percentage of respondents gave price as their main reason for cancelling?
Weighted to the tenure mix of all customers who cancelled, what percentage would give price as their main reason?
Among respondents whose main reason was that it was hard to skip weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to come back if any week could be skipped with one tap?
How many of the open-text answers mention recipe variety or repetitive recipes?
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents giving price as their main reason?
Is the difference in the share satisfied (4-5) between Family and Couples respondents, across all respondents, statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)
Weighted to the tenure mix of all 9,850 customers who cancelled, about how many of them would give 'hard to skip weeks' as their main reason?
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who were customers for over 12 months mention recipe variety or repetitive recipes?
Among respondents whose main reason was that it was hard to skip weeks, by how many percentage points does the share likely to come back with one-tap skipping exceed the share likely to come back with a 20% price cut?
What percentage of the customers invited completed the survey?
Among respondents whose main reason was price, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to come back if the plan cost 20% less?

What was planted in the data

What a careful analyst notices. The judges check each analysis against these.

Northern Ireland respondents (base 12) cite delivery problems far more often.
Family-plan respondents look less satisfied overall, but are more satisfied than Couples within every tenure band: Family customers skew to long tenure, and long-tenure customers are less satisfied.
Long-tenure customers are 50% of respondents but 20% of cancellers; short-tenure customers, who cite price more, are under-represented.
'Likely to come back' answers are stated intentions about a hypothetical feature.
The chief executive believes customers leave mainly because of price.
Only 702 of 9,850 invited customers started the survey (about 7%); those who respond may differ from those who do not.
Only customers who cancelled were surveyed, so the survey cannot show what distinguishes leavers from customers who stay; the reasons are self-reported.
The one-tap skipping question (Q3) came immediately before the price-cut question (Q4), so answers to Q4 may have been framed by Q3.

Key findings.

Difficulty skipping weeks is the most common reason for cancelling, ahead of price, even after weighting for tenure
Respondents who left because skipping was hard are far more likely to say they would come back with one-tap skipping than with a 20% price cut

A sound recommendation, in substance. Build one-tap skipping first; treat a price cut as a secondary lever, mainly for new customers.