DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017: Why Quaymark's customer score fell

The decision: whether to reverse the per-shipment fee and bring back the subscription, invest in shipment tracking and proactive delay alerts, or add account managers for mid-sized customers. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✗ Not sound
Research score: 96 of 100
Analysis rating: 1,221
Head to head, this task: won 9 of 13

Why it is not sound

The survey

A double-barrelled question: Q8

Scorecard

Numbers 12 of 12 right

Question		Its answer	True
What is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS across all respondents (percentage scoring 9-10 minus percentage scoring 0-6), unweighted?	✓	12.9	12.9
Weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of all 4,720 active accounts, what is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS?	✓	17.7	17.8
Re-weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of the Q1 2026 wave's respondents, what is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS?	✓	20.3	20.3
Among respondents who scored 0-6 and answered the open question, what percentage of answers mention tracking (not being able to see where shipments are) or late or missed collections or deliveries?	✓	68.9%	68.9%
How many of the open-text answers mention the per-shipment fee or its cost?	✓	21	21
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the Q3 2026 wave's unweighted share of respondents scoring 9-10?	✓	4.12 points	4.12 points
Among accounts booking 100 or more shipments a month, is the change in the share scoring 9-10 between the Q1 2026 and Q3 2026 waves statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
What percentage of the accounts invited to the Q3 2026 wave completed it?	✓	11%	11%
Among Q3 2026 respondents booking fewer than 20 shipments a month, what percentage said the per-shipment fee is worse for their business than the subscription?	✓	49.2%	49.2%
Among accounts booking fewer than 20 shipments a month, by how many points did NPS fall between the Q1 2026 and Q3 2026 waves?	✓	4 points	3.9 points
How many Q3 2026 respondents who send shipments to the Republic of Ireland scored 0-6?	✓	13	13
Weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of all 4,720 active accounts, about how many accounts would score 0-6?	✓	1,002	1,001

Traps in the data 8 of 8 handled

✓The Q1 wave (+24) was phone interviews by account managers; the Q3 wave (+13) was online. Interviewer-administered scores, especially when the interviewer is the customer's own account manager, run higher, so part of the fall may be the change of method rather than a change in loyalty.
✓Accounts booking fewer than 20 shipments a month are 61% of Q3 respondents against 30% in Q1 and 40% of active accounts, and they score lowest (Q3 NPS +5). Re-weighted to Q1's mix the Q3 NPS is +20.3, and to the active-account mix +17.8, so much of the 11-point fall is a change in who answered.
✓The commercial director believes the fee caused the fall. Among detractors who explained their score, 69% mention tracking or delays and 18% the fee; only 39% of all respondents say the fee is worse than the subscription (49% of small accounts, 15% of the largest).
✓Respondents who ship to Ireland (base 14) are nearly all detractors (NPS -93).
✓45% of small accounts say they would be likely to choose a monthly subscription if offered: a stated intention about a hypothetical, with no price given.
✓521 of 4,720 invited accounts completed (about 11%); unhappy customers and small accounts may be more likely to respond online.
✓Among accounts booking 100 or more a month (bases 98 and 48), the promoter share moved from 49% to 52%, NPS +38 to +38: not significant.
✓The 69% figure is a share of the 45 detractors who answered the open question, not of all respondents or all customers.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not reverse the per-shipment fee for all customers now. Prioritise live tracking and proactive delay alerts as the first product investment, because this is the largest stated and open-text pain and affects all segments. Keep the fee but design and test an optional monthly subscription or small-shipper cap targeted at under-20-shipments and fee-worse customers. Do not add account managers broadly; pilot a named-manager service only for 100+ shippers or high-value accounts. Manually review the 14 Ireland shippers before concluding there is a country problem.

What would change it

A same-mode, properly weighted Q4/Q1 panel showing the NPS fall persists after mix and mode adjustment and is concentrated among fee-affected customers; an A/B fee-reversal test showing retention or revenue gains exceed tracking-alert gains; Ireland interviews showing systematic service failure; or a large-account study showing account managers improve retention enough to justify cost.

Findings

The 11-point Q1-to-Q3 NPS fall is not a defensible loyalty claim. Q3 unweighted NPS is +12.9, weighted to the active-account mix it is +17.7, and reweighted to the Q1 sample mix it is +20.3 against Q1 +24; most of the apparent drop is sample mix and mode, not proof of eroding loyalty.

Medium confidenceBase 521

Q3 n=521: 35.9% scored 9-10 minus 23.0% scored 0-6 = +12.9. Active-account mix 40/42/18% with Q3 band NPS +5.0/+21.4/+37.5 = +17.7. Q3 reweighted to Q1 mix 124/190/98 = +20.3; Q1 reported NPS +24 on n=412.
There is no clear mandate for a blanket return to subscription. The fee split is 39.0% worse, 20.0% better and 29.9% about the same; only 39.5% would be likely to choose a subscription and 36.7% unlikely. Demand is concentrated among small and fee-worse shippers, while larger shippers are more likely to prefer per-shipment pricing.

High confidenceBase 521

Q5 n=521: worse 39.0%, better 20.0%, about the same 29.9%. Q6 n=521: net likely 39.5%, unlikely 36.7%. Under 20 shipments/month: 49.2% worse and 44.5% likely; 100+/month: 14.6% worse and 31.2% better. Among fee-worse respondents, 61.6% likely to choose subscription.
Tracking and delay visibility are the strongest improvement lever. Live tracking and proactive delay alerts are the top two requested improvements and dominate detractor open text, ahead of support, claims and account management.

High confidenceBase 521

Q7 n=521: live tracking 41.3%, delay alerts 34.2%, net 65.6%; named account manager 14.2%. Q4 visibility dissatisfaction 28.6% vs satisfaction 41.2%. Of 45 detractor open answers, 31 (68.9%) mention tracking visibility or late/missed collections/deliveries.
Named account managers are not a broad fix. They appeal mainly to the largest shippers, who already report the highest NPS and are the least likely to want subscription back.

Medium confidenceBase 48

Q7 named account manager 14.2% overall, 31.2% among 100+ shipments/month (n=48). 100+ NPS +37.5, Q5 better 31.2% vs worse 14.6%, Q6 subscription likely 37.5%.
Ireland is a serious red flag but the evidence is too thin for a country-level conclusion. Almost all Ireland respondents are detractors, but the base is tiny; investigate account by account before making operational changes at scale.

Low confidenceBase 14

Q1/Q9: 13 of 14 Ireland shippers scored 0-6 (92.9%), NPS -93; Ireland is 2.7% of completes, while 95.2% do not ship there. All seven Ireland 'Yes' open answers are scores 5-6.
The Q3 sample over-represents small shippers and response is low, so unweighted tables understate account-level NPS and overstate the fee pain relative to the active account base.

High confidenceBase 521

Q8: 61.2% of 521 completes book under 20/month vs 40% of 4,720 active accounts; response 521/4,720 = 11.0%. Weighted NPS +17.7 vs unweighted +12.9.
Support and claims are secondary but real pain points; they do not displace tracking and delay alerts as the first priority.

Medium confidenceBase 521

Q7 quicker support 23.0%, easier claims 13.6%. Open text: 8 support-slow/unreachable answers and 5 damage/claims answers.

Caveats

Q1 and Q3 are not comparable as a trend: Q1 was phone interviews by account managers with 412 of 640 selected customers; Q3 was online to all active accounts with 521 completes. Mode, social desirability, selection and sample mix differ.
Q3 response rate is 11.0%; 61.2% of completes book under 20 shipments a month vs 40% of active accounts, so unweighted results are not account-representative. Weighted figures should be used for account-level decisions.
Subgroup bases are small: Ireland n=14; 100+ shipments n=48; Q1 100+ n=98. Treat subgroup NPS and significance with caution.
Q6 is a hypothetical choice, not observed behaviour; stated subscription likelihood overstates actual take-up.
Open text is available for 186 of 521 respondents and is not a representative sample; percentages among open answers are directional.
NPS is not the same as loyalty or retention; no behavioural retention data is in the survey.
Fee reversal causality cannot be inferred; Q5 is self-reported and confounded by shipment volume.

Next steps

decisionProceed with live tracking and proactive delay alerts, scope and build, then phased rollout.
experimentDesign and pilot an optional monthly subscription or small-shipper cap; do not withdraw per-shipment pricing globally.
researchInterview all 14 Ireland shippers and a sample of other 0-6 respondents.
experimentPilot named account managers for 100+ shipment or high-value accounts.
monitorRun future NPS waves in the same online mode with a weighted sample and monitor response and mix.

Open-text themes it coded

Fast and easy booking is the core positive 79Tracking visibility and vague updates 42Late or missed collections and deliveries 29Per-shipment fee and cost worse than subscription 21Customer support slow or unreachable 8Damage and claims process 5Neutral, new or no strong opinion 22

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

S1
Thank you for opening this survey. First, two quick questions to check you are the right person to answer. Are you the main person at your business who books shipments with Quaymark?
One answer
- Yes, that is me
- I share the role with someone else
- No, someone else does this
Continues if Yes, that is me; I share the role with someone else
S2
In the last three months, has your business booked at least one shipment through Quaymark?
One answer
- Yes
- No
- Not sure
Continues if Yes
S3
Is your business based in the UK?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
Q1
On average, how many shipments does your business book through Quaymark in a month?
One answer
- Fewer than 20
- 20 to 99
- 100 or more
- Don't know
Q2
How likely are you to recommend Quaymark to another business that ships pallets or parcels? Please use a scale from 0 to 10, where 0 is not at all likely and 10 is extremely likely.
Scale

Scale 1-11: 0 - Not at all likely to 10 - Extremely likely
Q3
What is the main reason for the score you gave?
Open text
Q4
In the last three months, which of the following, if any, have been a problem for your business when using Quaymark? Please select all that apply.
Any that apply
- The £3.50 per-shipment booking fee
- The overall price of shipping
- Deliveries arriving later than promised
- Not knowing where a shipment is
- Not being told about a delay before the delivery was due
- Getting a quick answer from customer support
- Invoices or payment administration
- Another problem
- No problems in the last three months
- Don't know
Q5
Before March 2026, Quaymark charged a monthly subscription, starting at £25 a month for the smallest accounts. Quaymark now charges a booking fee of £3.50 per shipment. For your business, does the booking fee cost more, less, or about the same as the subscription did?
One answer
- It costs us more
- It costs us less
- It costs us about the same
- I don't know
- We did not have a Quaymark subscription before March 2026
Q6
Which would you prefer Quaymark to use for your account?
One answer
- A booking fee of £3.50 per shipment, as now
- A monthly subscription, as before
- It makes no difference to us
- Don't know
Q7
In the last three months, has the booking fee prompted you to do any of the following? Please select all that apply.
Any that apply
- Compared Quaymark's prices with another provider
- Moved some bookings to another provider
- Booked fewer shipments with Quaymark
- Asked Quaymark for a discount or to waive the fee
- Made a complaint to Quaymark
- None of these
- Don't know / can't recall
Q8
Below are four changes Quaymark could make. Please put them in order of how much each one would improve your experience with Quaymark, from 1 (would improve it most) to 4 (would improve it least).
Ranking
- Better online tracking of where shipments are
- Proactive alerts when a shipment is going to be late
- A named account manager you can contact directly
- Lower or simpler fees
Judges: double-barrelled
“Lower or simpler fees” combines reducing the price and simplifying the fee structure in one ranked item. Its rank cannot distinguish which change respondents value.
'Lower or simpler fees' is double-barrelled, as a fee might be lower without being simpler, or simpler without being lower.
Q9
How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? 'Quaymark offers good value for money.'
Scale

Scale 1-5: Strongly disagree to Strongly agree
Q10
Over the next three months, do you expect your business to book more, about the same, or fewer shipments with Quaymark than in the last three months?
One answer
- More
- About the same
- Fewer
- Don't know

Sample plan

Invite the main booking contact for all 4,720 active accounts (at least one shipment booked in the last three months) by email from the customer database, with a personalised link, an invitation and two reminders over three weeks; UK-only list, and S3 guards against forwarded links. A full census invitation is used because the precision requirement rules out sampling. To report the share scoring 9-10 within plus or minus 5 percentage points at 95% confidence needs about 384 completes per account-size band (1.96-squared times 0.25 divided by 0.05-squared), i.e. roughly 1,150 completes across three bands - more than double the 520 budget. At 520 completes, each band holds only about 160-190 responses, giving around plus or minus 7-8 points per band at a 50/50 split (n=190 gives plus or minus 7.1 points; n=160 gives plus or minus 7.7 points, narrowing to about plus or minus 6.5 points in the 100+ band if finite-population correction is applied against a small band population). The board must therefore choose: (a) raise the target to about 1,150 completes by adding a small incentive (for example a £10 charity donation per complete) and a third reminder, requiring roughly a 24% response rate on the 4,720 list; (b) accept plus or minus 8 points per band and present band-level results as indicative only, using the 520-complete overall figure (plus or minus 4.3 points) for headline estimates; or (c) confirm that plus or minus 5 points is needed only for the total, not for each band. Target 520 completes (expected 11-13% response on 4,720 invitations), with monitoring quotas from the database booking-volume band: fewer than 20 a month n>=180, 20 to 99 a month n>=180, 100 or more a month n>=160, and exhausting the 100+ band if its base is small. Weight the final data to the database band profile and compare against Q1 self-report. Soft-launch 100 invitations first and check median completion time stays under 6 minutes before the main release; only S2 is mandatory.