Mercury 3: Why Quaymark's customer score fell

The decision: whether to reverse the per-shipment fee and bring back the subscription, invest in shipment tracking and proactive delay alerts, or add account managers for mid-sized customers. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✗ Not sound
Research score: 66 of 100
Analysis rating: 752
Head to head, this task: won 10 of 13

Why it is not sound

The survey

Presumed the stakeholder's view instead of testing it
A leading question: Q5

The analysis

Reported a material finding the data does not support
Made a recommendation that does not follow from the data
Missed a trap: 45% of small accounts say they would be likely to choose a monthly subscription if offered: a stated intention about a hypothetical, with no price given.

Findings the judges found unsupported

Fee dissatisfaction is concentrated among small shippers, and a meaningful share would choose a subscription if offered as an option.The claim that a meaningful share would choose a subscription converts hypothetical stated intention into actual behaviour. The 44.5% said they would be likely to choose it, with no subscription price specified; this is not a take-up forecast.
Large shippers remain the most loyal, are not significantly less positive than in Q1, and are the main segment interested in account managers.The reported base of 146 pools the two waves. Only 48 large shippers answered Q3, including the account-manager question. The caveat incorrectly presents 146 as the large-shipper subgroup size without distinguishing the waves, overstating the current evidence base.

Scorecard

Numbers 12 of 12 right

Question		Its answer	True
What is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS across all respondents (percentage scoring 9-10 minus percentage scoring 0-6), unweighted?	✓	13	12.9
Weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of all 4,720 active accounts, what is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS?	✓	17.7	17.8
Re-weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of the Q1 2026 wave's respondents, what is the Q3 2026 wave's NPS?	✓	20.2	20.3
Among respondents who scored 0-6 and answered the open question, what percentage of answers mention tracking (not being able to see where shipments are) or late or missed collections or deliveries?	✓	68.9%	68.9%
How many of the open-text answers mention the per-shipment fee or its cost?	✓	21	21
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the Q3 2026 wave's unweighted share of respondents scoring 9-10?	✓	4.1 points	4.12 points
Among accounts booking 100 or more shipments a month, is the change in the share scoring 9-10 between the Q1 2026 and Q3 2026 waves statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
What percentage of the accounts invited to the Q3 2026 wave completed it?	✓	11%	11%
Among Q3 2026 respondents booking fewer than 20 shipments a month, what percentage said the per-shipment fee is worse for their business than the subscription?	✓	49.2%	49.2%
Among accounts booking fewer than 20 shipments a month, by how many points did NPS fall between the Q1 2026 and Q3 2026 waves?	✓	4 points	3.9 points
How many Q3 2026 respondents who send shipments to the Republic of Ireland scored 0-6?	✓	13	13
Weighted to the shipments-a-month mix of all 4,720 active accounts, about how many accounts would score 0-6?	✓	1,001	1,001

Traps in the data 7 of 8 handled

✓The Q1 wave (+24) was phone interviews by account managers; the Q3 wave (+13) was online. Interviewer-administered scores, especially when the interviewer is the customer's own account manager, run higher, so part of the fall may be the change of method rather than a change in loyalty.
✓Accounts booking fewer than 20 shipments a month are 61% of Q3 respondents against 30% in Q1 and 40% of active accounts, and they score lowest (Q3 NPS +5). Re-weighted to Q1's mix the Q3 NPS is +20.3, and to the active-account mix +17.8, so much of the 11-point fall is a change in who answered.
✓The commercial director believes the fee caused the fall. Among detractors who explained their score, 69% mention tracking or delays and 18% the fee; only 39% of all respondents say the fee is worse than the subscription (49% of small accounts, 15% of the largest).
✓Respondents who ship to Ireland (base 14) are nearly all detractors (NPS -93).
✗45% of small accounts say they would be likely to choose a monthly subscription if offered: a stated intention about a hypothetical, with no price given.
✓521 of 4,720 invited accounts completed (about 11%); unhappy customers and small accounts may be more likely to respond online.
✓Among accounts booking 100 or more a month (bases 98 and 48), the promoter share moved from 49% to 52%, NPS +38 to +38: not significant.
✓The 69% figure is a share of the 45 detractors who answered the open question, not of all respondents or all customers.

The analysis

Recommendation

Findings

The headline 11-point NPS drop is not a clean measure of falling loyalty: the Q1 and Q3 waves used different methods and samples.

High confidenceBase 521

Q1 was run by phone by Quaymark account managers, n=412, NPS +24. Q3 was run online, n=521, NPS +13. Re-weighted to Q1's shipment-size mix, Q3 NPS is about +20.
Fee dissatisfaction is concentrated among small shippers, and a meaningful share would choose a subscription if offered as an option.

High confidenceBase 319

Among <20/month shippers, 49.2% say the per-shipment fee is worse than the subscription, vs 25.3% for 20-99 and 14.6% for 100+. Net 44.5% of <20 shippers say they would be likely to choose a monthly subscription. 21 open-text answers mention fee or subscription cost.
Tracking visibility and proactive delay alerts are the most requested improvements, especially among detractors.

High confidenceBase 120

Q7: live tracking 41.3%, late/missed alerts 34.2%, combined 65.6% overall and 69.2% among detractors. Of 45 detractor open-text answers, 31 (68.9%) mention poor tracking or late/missed collections/deliveries.
Ireland shows a severe warning sign, but the sample is too small to treat as proof of an Ireland-wide problem.

Low confidenceBase 14

Only 14 Q3 respondents ship to Ireland; 92.9% are detractors (0-6) and 0% are promoters, giving NPS -93. This is 2.7% of the Q3 sample.
Large shippers remain the most loyal, are not significantly less positive than in Q1, and are the main segment interested in account managers.

Medium confidenceBase 146

100+ monthly shippers: Q3 NPS +38 vs Q1 +38; promoter share 52.1% vs 49.0%, not statistically significant at 95% (z≈0.35). Named account manager was selected by 31.2% of 100+ shippers vs 14.2% overall.
Customer support and damage claims are secondary but recurring pain points that can erode otherwise positive customers.

Medium confidenceBase 186

Quicker support was selected by 23.0% in Q7; 6 open-text answers criticise support responsiveness and 5 cite damage or claims. Several positive-to-mid scores mention slow claims or hard-to-reach support.

Caveats

The Q1 and Q3 waves are not directly comparable: Q1 used phone interviews conducted by Quaymark account managers, while Q3 was an online survey. Phone and interviewer effects can inflate ratings.
The Q3 response rate was only 11% (521 of 4,720 invited). The respondent mix skews to small shippers (61% fewer than 20/month vs 40% in the population). Weights adjust for shipment-size mix but not for other non-response bias.
Several subgroup sizes are very small: Ireland n=14 (2.7% of the Q3 sample) and 100+ shippers n=146. Results for these groups are directionally useful but not conclusive.

Open-text themes it coded

Booking speed and ease 88Tracking and visibility 42Late or missed collections/deliveries 29Pricing: per-shipment fee versus subscription 21Customer support responsiveness 6Damage and claims 5Neutral or limited experience 13

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 8 questions, as the model wrote them.

S1
Are you the person at your business who is mainly responsible for booking freight and shipments?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
S2
Has your business used Quaymark to book at least one collection in the last 3 months?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
S3
Is your business based in the United Kingdom?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
Q1
Overall, how likely are you to recommend Quaymark to another UK business? Please select a number from 0 to 10, where 0 means “Not at all likely” and 10 means “Extremely likely”.
Scale

Scale 1-11: Not at all likely to Extremely likely
Q2
What is the main reason for the score you gave? Please be specific, for example what worked well or what went wrong.
Open text
Q3
Before reading this survey, were you aware that Quaymark replaced its monthly subscription with a £3.50 per-shipment booking fee?
One answer
- Yes
- No
- Not sure
Q4
If Quaymark offered you the choice, which pricing option would you prefer?
One answer
- A monthly subscription, with no per-shipment fee
- The current per-shipment fee of £3.50
- No preference
- Neither / I’m not sure
Q5
Since the per-shipment fee was introduced, how has your booking behaviour changed?
One answer
- I have not changed my booking behaviour
- I now book fewer shipments through Quaymark
- I now consolidate shipments into fewer bookings
- I now use another freight provider for some shipments
- I now use another freight provider for most or all shipments
Judges: leading, assumptive
The options allow unchanged behaviour or reductions, consolidation and switching away, but not increased booking through Quaymark. The question also assumes respondents have booking experience spanning the fee's introduction, although recent customers can pass the screeners.
It assumes the respondent was booking with Quaymark before the fee was introduced. Accounts active in the last 3 months may have joined since the change, and none of the options fits them.
Q6
Please rank the following three potential improvements in order of value to your business (1 = most valuable, 3 = least valuable).
Ranking
- Real-time shipment tracking
- Proactive delay alerts
- A dedicated account manager
Q7
What single improvement would most help your business? This can be different from the three improvements above.
Open text
Q8
In an average month, approximately how many shipments/collections does your business book through Quaymark? Please give your best estimate.
Number

Sample plan

Invite all 4,720 active UK accounts via email to the main booking contact, with a unique survey link. Target about 520 completed screened surveys. Set quotas by account-size band from the customer database (fewer than 20 monthly shipments, 20-99, 100+), aiming for at least 150 completes per band where possible, with one reminder email to non-respondents and targeted follow-ups to underrepresented bands. Note: a ±5 percentage point 95% CI for the percentage scoring 9-10 in each band requires a finite-population-adjusted sample of up to ~385 per band (fewer if the band population is small). With a total of 520, the plan cannot guarantee the full ±5 precision in every band; if the board requires that precision for all three bands, the total must be increased (to roughly 900-1,155 completes, depending on band sizes). Otherwise, final CIs will be reported and implications flagged.