Gemini 4 Carbon: What Hollinbrook residents think of three-weekly bin collections

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. Answer to the Council Leader: You cannot tell full council that residents currently back an unmitigated switch to three-weekly collections, because district-wide opinion on a straight switch leans slightly against it, though most residents are open to a trial or a supported model.

   High confidenceBase 422

   On the demographically balanced residents' panel (n=422), 45.3% oppose the change while 40.8% (±4.7 percentage points) support it. However, when offered policy options at Q4, 71.1% selected a three-weekly route—25.4% a trial first, 23.7% with extra support, and 22.0% district-wide—versus 24.6% preferring to keep fortnightly collections.

2. Answer to the Cabinet Member for Environment: Do not drop the proposal on the strength of the 77.5% opposition in the open consultation, which reflects self-selection and an organised local campaign rather than district-wide views.

   High confidenceBase 1740

   In the open consultation (n=1,318), Brookfield ward accounts for 38.0% of responses versus 12% of district households, owner-occupiers account for 81.5% versus 67%, and households with children under 3 or hygiene waste needs account for 28.9% versus ~15%. Furthermore, 209 of the 315 open-consultation comments (66.3%) are verbatim or near-verbatim copies of the Keep Brookfield Tidy template. On the representative panel (n=422), opposition is 45.3% and only 24.6% prefer keeping fortnightly collections at Q4.

3. Answer to the Head of Waste Services: Offering a free larger bin will not bring most opponents round; over three in five opponents would still oppose, though it shifts overall panel sentiment from plurality opposition to a narrow majority in support.

   High confidenceBase 1212

   Among opponents at Q2, only 22.5% on the residents' panel (n=191) and 17.4% in the open consultation (n=1,021) say they would support three-weekly collections if given a larger bin, while 61.3% and 66.5% respectively would still oppose (9.4% and 10.9% move to neither). Across all 422 panel respondents, a free larger bin adds 10.2 percentage points to support (lifting support from 40.8% to 51.0% and cutting opposition from 45.3% to 27.7%).

4. Households with children under 3 or continence/medical hygiene waste strongly oppose an unmitigated three-weekly cycle because of odour, pests and hygiene over 21 days—meaning they need more frequent hygiene collections, not just a bigger bin.

   Medium confidenceBase 54

   On the residents' panel, 74.1% of households with a child under 3 or hygiene products oppose the base proposal (n=54, vs 41.0% among other households, n=368). At Q4, 55.6% of this group prefer three-weekly collections with extra support (such as extra nappy/hygiene collections or a larger bin), cutting preference for keeping two-weekly collections to 25.9%. Open-text comments highlight summer maggots, flies, foxes and rotting clinical or nappy waste.

5. Opposition outside hygiene-need households is split between physical bin-capacity constraints in larger multi-person households and council-tax value-for-money resentment, plus fears of rural and alleyway fly-tipping.

   Medium confidenceBase 422

   Across 208 non-template open-text comments (106 open consultation, 102 panel), 69 cite bins already full at two weeks (predominantly 4–8 person households), 39 object to paying the same or higher council tax for fewer collections, and 15 predict increased side-waste and fly-tipping in lanes and alleys. Apparent tenure differences in support on the panel (42.6% owner-occupiers, n=282 vs 37.1% renters, n=140) are not statistically significant at the 95% level, though renters show higher strong opposition (37.1% vs 23.8%).

6. Three-weekly collections show promising self-reported potential to increase recycling, while roughly one in nine panelists say they already recycle everything they can.

   Medium confidenceBase 422

   At Q5 on the residents' panel (n=422), 40.5% say they would be very (15.6%) or fairly (24.9%) likely to recycle more, 29.1% say unlikely, and 11.8% say they already recycle everything they can; 42 of 102 panel open-text comments endorse the environmental nudge.

Open-text themes it coded

Organised campaign template objections (Keep Brookfield Tidy) 209Insufficient bin capacity and overflowing rubbish (unprompted) 69Hygiene, odour, pests, nappies and clinical/continence waste (unprompted) 35Council tax and poor value for money 39Fly-tipping and dumped side-waste in lanes and streets (unprompted) 15Environmental benefit and incentive to recycle more 57Minimal or no impact on low-waste households 18

The survey it planned

3 screening questions and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Are you aged 18 or over?

   One answer
   • Yes, I am 18 or over
   • No, I am under 18

   Continues if Yes, I am 18 or over

2. S2

   Do you live in the Hollinbrook District Council area?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No
   • Not sure

   Continues if Yes

3. S3

   Which ward of Hollinbrook District do you live in? (If you are unsure, you can check using the ward finder link below before answering.)

   One answer
   • Ward 1 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • Ward 2 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • Ward 3 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • Ward 4 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • Ward 5 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • Ward 6 [Replace with actual ward name]
   • I do not live in Hollinbrook District

   Continues if Ward 1 [Replace with actual ward name]; Ward 2 [Replace with actual ward name]; Ward 3 [Replace with actual ward name]; Ward 4 [Replace with actual ward name]; Ward 5 [Replace with actual ward name]; Ward 6 [Replace with actual ward name]

4. Q1

   Thinking about your general waste (black bin), which is currently collected every two weeks, how full is it usually on collection day?

   One answer
   • Overflowing, or we regularly have extra bags beside it
   • Completely full, with the lid just closing
   • About three-quarters full
   • Half full or less
   • We do not have an individual black bin (e.g. we use shared communal bins or sacks)
5. Q2

   Hollinbrook District Council must find £3.1 million of savings next year. One proposal is to collect general waste (black bins) every three weeks instead of every two weeks. Food waste would still be collected every week and recycling every two weeks. This change would save about £600,000 a year in collection and disposal costs, though households would have one fewer black bin collection every six weeks. Other councils making this change have also seen recycling rates rise. Overall, to what extent do you support or oppose collecting general waste every three weeks across the district?

   One answer
   • Strongly support
   • Tend to support
   • Neither support nor oppose
   • Tend to oppose
   • Strongly oppose
   • Don't know
   Judges: leading

   The budget-necessity framing, quantified saving and asserted recycling benefit collectively favour the proposal. The service reduction is mentioned, but household disadvantages are not presented before the support question.

   The preamble is weighted towards support. It states the £3.1m savings need and the £600k saving, and presents 'other councils have seen recycling rates rise' as fact. The downside is minimised as 'one fewer black bin collection every six weeks'. Possible problems such as overflow, smells and nappies are not mentioned.

6. Q3

   If general waste (black bin) collections moved to every three weeks, with food waste staying weekly and recycling every two weeks, how easy or difficult would it be for your household to manage?

   One answer
   • Very easy
   • Fairly easy
   • Neither easy nor difficult
   • Fairly difficult
   • Very difficult
   • Don't know
7. Q4

   Which of the following, if any, would be a problem for your household if general waste was collected every three weeks? (Select all that apply)

   Any that apply
   • Not enough space in the black bin for three weeks of general waste
   • Disposing of nappies
   • Disposing of adult continence, medical, or hygiene products
   • Smells, pests, or hygiene concerns from waste sitting longer
   • Not enough space in our recycling bin or food caddy to divert more waste
   • Difficulty storing extra waste or extra bins at our property
   • Other problem
   • None — my household would not have any particular problems
8. Q5

   If general waste was collected every three weeks, how would it affect the amount of food waste and dry recycling (paper, card, plastics, tins, glass) your household separates out from the black bin?

   One answer
   • We would recycle and separate food waste a lot more than now
   • We would recycle and separate food waste a little more than now
   • No change — we already recycle and separate everything we possibly can
   • No change — we would not recycle any more than we do now
   • Don't know
   Judges: double-barrelled

   A single answer combines food-waste separation and dry recycling, which could change differently. The options allow increases or no change but exclude decreases, steering reported effects towards increased recycling.

   Dry recycling and food waste separation are combined into single answer options ('recycle and separate food waste a lot more'). A household that would change one but not the other cannot answer accurately.

9. Q6

   Suppose the council moved to three-weekly general waste collections, AND provided extra support for households with specific needs — such as a larger black bin for large households, or extra collections for nappies and medical/continence hygiene waste. With that extra support in place, to what extent would you support or oppose moving to three-weekly general waste collections?

   One answer
   • Strongly support
   • Tend to support
   • Neither support nor oppose
   • Tend to oppose
   • Strongly oppose
   • Don't know
10. Q7

    The council is considering four options for the autumn decision. Bearing in mind that keeping two-weekly collections means finding the £600,000 saving from other council services or council tax, which ONE of the following options do you prefer?

    One answer
    • Move to three-weekly general waste collections across the whole district as standard
    • Move to three-weekly general waste collections across the whole district, with larger bins or extra hygiene/nappy collections for households that need them
    • Trial three-weekly general waste collections in selected areas first before deciding for the whole district
    • Drop the proposal and keep two-weekly general waste collections, finding the £600,000 saving elsewhere
    • Don't know
    Judges: leading

    The preamble frames retaining fortnightly collections as requiring savings from other services or council tax, and repeats the financial penalty in that option. This steers preference towards changing collections.

    The cost trade-off (cuts to other services or council tax) is attached only to keeping two-weekly collections, and is repeated in the 'drop' option. The costs or downsides of the other options are not stated, which pushes respondents away from dropping the proposal.

11. Q8

    How many people live in your household altogether (including yourself and any children)?

    One answer
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6 or more
12. Q9

    Do any of the following apply to your household? This helps us understand how changes affect households with different needs. (Select all that apply)

    Any that apply
    • One or more children aged under 4, or children using nappies
    • Someone who uses adult continence, stoma, or medical hygiene products at home
    • Someone with a disability or long-term health condition that makes moving bins difficult
    • None of these
    • Prefer not to say
13. Q10

    Which of the following best describes the area and home you live in, and your age group? Please select the ONE option that matches your age and whether you rent or own, and note we also use your ward from earlier:

    Any that apply
    • Area: Town or urban area
    • Area: Village, hamlet, or rural countryside
    • Home: Own outright or buying with a mortgage/shared ownership
    • Home: Rent from council or housing association
    • Home: Rent from a private landlord, or live rent-free
    • Age: 18 to 34
    • Age: 35 to 54
    • Age: 55 to 69
    • Age: 70 or over
    • Prefer not to say
    Judges: double-barrelled, ambiguous

    It requests area type, tenure and age together while instructing respondents to select ONE option. No option records all three. The multi-select designation also conflicts with the single-selection instruction, making responses inconsistent and the profile data unusable.

    It asks about area type, tenure and age in one question. It is set up as multi-select but tells respondents to 'select the ONE option that matches your age and whether you rent or own'. That instruction cannot be followed and contradicts itself, so the profile data would be unusable for weighting.