Kimi K3.1 Pro: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. Low overnight penetration does not make an estate-wide closure consequence-free: the minority using these hours is substantially more exposed, and the evidence does not justify closing all 14 gyms on the usage argument alone.

   Medium confidenceBase 950

   Door records show that 6% of members, about 2,316 people, entered overnight in September. Among 142 survey respondents reporting overnight use, 45.8% were likely to cancel, versus 9.2% of 808 non-users. Overnight users were also much more likely to cite 24-hour opening as a joining reason: 59.2% versus 17.8%.

2. Marketing should report 11.4%, or about 4,400 members, only as weighted stated cancellation risk, not as a forecast of actual membership losses.

   High confidenceBase 950

   Calibration to door-entry incidence gives 0.06 × 45.8% + 0.94 × 9.2% = 11.396%; applied to 38,600 members this is approximately 4,399. Roughly 1,061 would be overnight users and 3,338 non-users, so about 76% of the weighted stated risk comes from non-users. Q4 measured response to a hypothetical closure, not behaviour.

3. Any targeted closure option must specifically assess and mitigate loss of access for night-shift workers; treating them as occasional late-night users would materially understate the impact.

   Medium confidenceBase 56

   Among 56 respondents whose shifts include nights, 45 (80.4%) reported overnight gym use, and the Q1 distribution places all 45 in the 8+ visits-per-four-weeks bands. Twenty-seven of 56 (48.2%) were likely to cancel. Sixteen open-text answers explicitly said that nights or shift work made 11pm–5am their only viable training window.

4. Twenty-four-hour access is important to a meaningful segment, but the survey does not establish it as the principal reason most members join or quantify its effect on future acquisition.

   Medium confidenceBase 950

   Open 24 hours was selected by 24.0% unweighted, including 59.2% of overnight users and 55.4% of night-shift respondents, but 17.8% of non-users. Calibration to 6% overnight incidence gives approximately 20.3%. Price (68.9%) and location (62.6%) were more commonly cited overall. Q5 is recalled joining behaviour, not a measure of current brand value or prospective joiner conversion.

5. The North West should not receive a blanket 24-hour exemption on the basis of the observed regional gap.

   Medium confidenceBase 449

   Likely cancellation was 19.2% in the North West (44/229) versus 13.6% in the North East (30/220), a 5.6-point difference. A two-proportion test gives approximately z = 1.6 and p = 0.11; the approximate 95% CI for the difference is -1.2 to +12.4 percentage points. Overnight-use incidence was also similar, at 14.0% and 15.0%. This is not proof that the regions are identical, but it is not a statistically reliable basis for different opening policies.

6. These tables cannot identify which gyms are quiet enough to close or demonstrate that closing them would produce a net financial benefit.

   High confidenceBase 950

   Home-gym bases range from 11 to 81. For example, Wakefield's 54.5% overnight-use figure represents 6/11 respondents and its 27.3% likely-cancellation figure 3/11. Excluding Wakefield, gym-level overnight-use estimates range from 7.5% to 20.3%, still on small bases. Q1 concerns use of any Corefit gym, while Q4 concerns closure of the home gym. There are no gym-by-hour entry volumes, avoidable costs, member revenue, actual churn or joiner data with which to calculate site-level economics.

7. Closure planning must address fee fairness and displacement into shoulder hours, while the safety comments warrant a separate operational review rather than being treated as proof that closure is the only solution.

   Medium confidenceBase 239

   Among 239 self-selected open-text answers, 90 expressed no direct effect, 52 expected a lower fee, 42 welcomed closure or raised unstaffed-overnight safety concerns, and 31 anticipated busier late-evening or early-morning sessions. Sixteen described shift-work dependence and 19 described switching gyms. Themes overlap, and these counts are qualitative rather than population prevalence estimates.

Open-text themes it coded

No direct effect on the respondent's own gym use 90Expect a lower membership fee or consider the existing price unfair if hours are reduced 52Would welcome closure or feel safer because of concerns about unstaffed overnight opening 23

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Are you currently a Corefit member?

   One answer
   • Yes
   • No

   Continues if Yes

2. Q1

   Which, if any, of the following were reasons you chose Corefit when you first joined? Select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • The membership price
   • The location of a Corefit gym
   • The equipment and facilities
   • The rolling monthly membership, with no long-term contract
   • Corefit being open 24 hours a day
   • The cleanliness of the gym
   • A recommendation from someone I know
   • Another reason
   • I can't remember
3. Q2

   During September 2026, how many separate visits did you make to any Corefit gym where you entered between 11pm and 5am? Include every Corefit gym, not just your home gym.

   One answer
   • 0 visits
   • 1 visit
   • 2–3 visits
   • 4–7 visits
   • 8–14 visits
   • 15 or more visits
   • I can't remember
   • I was not a Corefit member in September 2026
4. Q3

   Why did you use Corefit between 11pm and 5am in September 2026? Select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • My work hours or shift pattern
   • Caring, study or other commitments
   • It is the only time I can reliably fit in exercise
   • I prefer exercising at night
   • The gym is usually quieter at that time
   • My travel or transport arrangements
   • Another reason
   • I can't remember

   Routing Shown only if Q2 is: 1 visit; 2–3 visits; 4–7 visits; 8–14 visits; 15 or more visits

5. Q4

   Imagine that your home gym closed every night between 11pm and 5am, but other Corefit gyms stayed open 24 hours. Your membership price and all other opening hours would stay the same. How much, if at all, would this affect your ability to use Corefit?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: No effect at all to A very large effect

6. Q5

   In that situation, what would you be most likely to do with your Corefit membership?

   One answer
   • Keep my membership with no change to what I do now
   • Keep my membership and use my home gym at other times
   • Keep my membership and use another Corefit gym overnight
   • Keep my membership but use Corefit less often
   • Cancel my membership
   • I don't know
7. Q6

   Now imagine instead that every Corefit gym closed every night between 11pm and 5am. Your membership price and all other opening hours would still stay the same. What would you be most likely to do with your Corefit membership?

   One answer
   • Keep my membership with no change to what I do now
   • Keep my membership and move my exercise to other times
   • Keep my membership but use Corefit less often
   • Cancel my membership
   • I don't know
8. Q7

   How important is it to you that Corefit is open 24 hours a day, even if you rarely or never use it between 11pm and 5am?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Not at all important to Extremely important

9. Q8

   If your home gym were closed between 11pm and 5am but other Corefit gyms stayed open, which of these would be realistic alternatives for your overnight visits? Select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • Use my home gym between 5am and 7am
   • Use my home gym between 7am and 5pm
   • Use my home gym between 5pm and 11pm
   • Use another Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am
   • Exercise somewhere other than Corefit
   • I would have no realistic alternative
   • I don't know

   Routing Shown only if Q2 is: 1 visit; 2–3 visits; 4–7 visits; 8–14 visits; 15 or more visits

10. Q9

    Which of the following apply to you at the moment? Select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • I work regular daytime hours
    • I work night shifts or rotating shifts
    • I work variable or unpredictable hours
    • I study
    • I have regular caring responsibilities
    • I am retired
    • I am not currently in paid work
    • None of these
    • Prefer not to say
11. Q10

    Which age group are you in?

    One answer
    • Under 18
    • 18–24
    • 25–34
    • 35–44
    • 45–54
    • 55–64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say