Benchmarks / SurveyBench / Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours? / GPT-6.1 Terra

Measured by Spring Prompt

GPT-6.1 Terra: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✓ Sound research
Research score
97 of 100
Analysis rating
1,273
Head to head, this task
won 7 of 10

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,3994,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.3 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1919
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓8%8%

Traps in the data 8 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✓Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Keep all 14 gyms open 24 hours for now. Do not approve blanket closure or a North West-wide exception from this survey. Prioritise a controlled, reversible test of overnight closure at carefully selected quiet gyms only if verified site-level use, nearby alternatives and a pre-specified financial and member-impact case support it.

What would change it

A credible site-level test showing that net operating savings exceed incremental lost membership contribution, acquisition effects, discounts and implementation costs, without unacceptable member or safety impacts, would support selective closure. Consistently positive results across sites could support wider closure; material incremental losses or unacceptable impacts would favour keeping sites open.

Findings

  1. Do not close every gym on the grounds that overnight access is unused. Use is concentrated among a minority, some of whom may have no workable alternative.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Door records show 6% of all 38,600 members, about 2,316 people, entered overnight in September. In the survey, 142 of 950 respondents, or 14.9%, reported being in a gym overnight in the last four weeks. Among 56 respondents whose shifts included nights, 80.4% reported an overnight visit and 48.2% said they were likely to cancel.

  2. The survey cannot tell marketing how many members Corefit will lose. The weighted result is a risk scenario, not a forecast of actual cancellations.

    Low confidenceBase 950

    Overall, 14.6% of 950 respondents said they were likely to cancel. Weighting the 45.8% of 142 overnight users and 9.2% of 808 non-users to 6% and 94% respectively gives 11.4%, equivalent to about 4,399 of 38,600 members if applied mechanically. Stated likelihood is not observed behaviour, and the weighting does not correct all selection biases.

  3. 24-hour access is an important reason for choosing Corefit, especially among overnight users, but the survey does not measure the effect on future recruitment.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Open 24 hours was selected as a joining reason by 24.0% of all 950 respondents and 59.2% of the 142 overnight users. Low price was selected by 68.9% overall. Multiple answers were allowed.

  4. Do not make a North West-wide exception based on the regional cancellation difference alone.

    Medium confidenceBase 449

    19.2% of 229 North West respondents and 13.6% of 220 North East respondents said they were likely to cancel: a 5.6 percentage-point difference. An approximate unweighted two-proportion comparison gives a 95% interval for the difference of roughly -1.6 to 12.8 points; it is not significant at 95%.

  5. Assess closure gym by gym rather than treating low reported overnight use as proof of low commercial risk.

    Low confidenceBase 89

    Preston had 7.7% reporting an overnight visit but 19.2% likely to cancel, among 78 respondents. Wakefield had 54.5% reporting an overnight visit among only 11 respondents. Q1 records visits to any Corefit gym, while the breakdown groups respondents by registered home gym.

  6. A closure could affect non-overnight users through perceived value and crowding as well as affect overnight users directly.

    Medium confidenceBase 808

    Among 808 respondents reporting no recent overnight visits, 9.2% said they were likely to cancel. In open answers, some expected a price reduction or feared crowding near 11pm or 5am; others welcomed closure because of perceived safety concerns. These are reported views, not measured effects.

Caveats

  • Only 950 of 11,900 invitees completed the survey: 8.0%. The tables are unweighted, and respondents may differ systematically from non-respondents.
  • The 2.3-point margin of error is an approximate 95% sampling margin under a simple-random-sample assumption. It does not account for nonresponse bias or measurement error.
  • The door figure is September entries between 11pm and 5am; Q1 asks about being in any Corefit gym during those hours in the last four weeks. Different periods and definitions, including sessions entered before 11pm, limit direct comparison and the validity of using 6% as a weighting target.
  • The weighted calculation assumes each survey group's stated cancellation likelihood applies to the corresponding member group. Even if that assumption held, stated likelihood is not a cancellation rate; some likely respondents may stay and some others may leave.
  • Q4 asks about closure of the respondent's home gym, not a selective-closure policy with nearby overnight alternatives. It does not estimate switching within Corefit, future acquisition, discounts or lost revenue.
  • Gym-level survey bases are small, particularly Wakefield at 11. Q1 is about visits to any Corefit gym, so its home-gym breakdown is not a count of use at that site.
  • The 239 open answers are a selected subset of completes; theme counts are not population prevalence estimates. Some answers conflict with their Q1 segment, including M034 and M305 saying they never use the gym at night despite being tagged as recent overnight users. Check the underlying records before relying on individual coding.
  • The regional significance calculation is approximate and does not remove nonresponse bias. Failure to find a statistically significant difference is not evidence that the regions are identical.
  • Members whose memberships had already ended were screened out. The study therefore cannot describe former members' reasons for leaving or prospective members' choices.

Next steps

  • researchCalculate overnight entries and distinct users by actual site, hour and day over several months; link to home gym, membership and cancellation records where permitted.
  • decisionBuild a site-level business case and set cancellation, access and financial guardrails before selecting any pilot.
  • experimentIf the business case supports it, test closure at selected quiet sites against comparable sites kept open, with advance notice, a defined test period and feasible nearby alternatives.
  • researchResearch affected overnight users, including night-shift workers, and test the proposed alternatives, price and communications.
  • monitorMonitor occupancy around 10–11pm and 5–6am, complaints, safety incidents and cancellations during any test.
  • researchAudit the contradictory Q1 and open-text records and validate the weighting against linked door data where consent and privacy rules permit.

Open-text themes it coded

Shift or night work leaves overnight as the only training window 16Recent overnight user says they would switch to another gym 19Expects or wants a lower membership price for reduced hours 51Worries that displaced users would crowd quiet periods around closure 31Welcomes closure or feels uneasy about unstaffed overnight opening 42

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Are you currently a Corefit member? Your answers will be linked to the home gym and region recorded on your membership account for analysis.

    One answer
    • Yes
    • No
    • Not sure

    Continues if Yes

  2. Q1

    In the last 4 weeks, on how many visits were you at a Corefit gym at any time from 11pm up to 5am? Include visits that started before 11pm.

    One answer
    • None
    • 1 visit
    • 2–3 visits
    • 4–7 visits
    • 8–15 visits
    • 16 or more visits
    • Not sure
  3. Q2

    Thinking about those visits from 11pm up to 5am in the last 4 weeks, which Corefit gyms did you visit? Your home gym is the gym recorded on your membership account.

    One answer
    • Only my home gym
    • My home gym and at least one other Corefit gym
    • Only Corefit gyms other than my home gym
    • Not sure

    Routing Shown only if Q1 is: 1 visit; 2–3 visits; 4–7 visits; 8–15 visits; 16 or more visits

  4. Q3

    Which best describes your usual work or study schedule?

    One answer
    • Mainly daytime
    • Mainly evenings
    • Mainly nights
    • Rotating or variable shifts
    • No usual schedule
    • Not currently working or studying
    • Prefer not to say
  5. Q4

    Which of the following were reasons you chose Corefit? Select all that apply. If none apply, select 'None of these' on its own.

    Any that apply
    • Price
    • Location
    • Open 24 hours
    • Rolling monthly membership
    • Equipment or facilities
    • Classes
    • Ability to use more than one Corefit gym
    • Recommendation from someone
    • Another reason
    • None of these
    • I do not remember
  6. Q5

    If all Corefit gyms closed from 11pm until 5am every day, how would this affect you? Select all that apply. If it would not affect you, or you are unsure, select that answer on its own.

    Any that apply
    • I would need to change when I exercise
    • I would exercise less often
    • I would use a different gym or exercise elsewhere
    • It would make exercise harder to fit around work, study or other commitments
    • It would increase my travel time or costs
    • It would affect my sense of safety
    • It would affect me in another way
    • It would not affect me
    • Not sure
  7. Q6

    If all Corefit gyms closed from 11pm until 5am every day, how likely would you be to keep your Corefit membership?

    One answer
    • Definitely keep it
    • Probably keep it
    • Probably cancel it
    • Definitely cancel it
    • Not sure
  8. Q7

    Imagine your home gym closed from 11pm until 5am every day, but some other Corefit gyms remained open 24 hours. How likely would you be to keep your Corefit membership?

    One answer
    • Definitely keep it
    • Probably keep it
    • Probably cancel it
    • Definitely cancel it
    • Not sure
  9. Q8

    Imagine your home gym remained open 24 hours, but some other Corefit gyms closed from 11pm until 5am every day. How likely would you be to keep your Corefit membership?

    One answer
    • Definitely keep it
    • Probably keep it
    • Probably cancel it
    • Definitely cancel it
    • Not sure
  10. Q9

    If your home gym closed from 11pm until 5am, could you reasonably use another Corefit gym during those hours instead?

    One answer
    • Yes
    • No
    • Not sure
  11. Q10

    What is your age?

    One answer
    • Under 18
    • 18–24
    • 25–34
    • 35–44
    • 45–54
    • 55–64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
Sample plan

Invite a random sample of current members from the membership database, stratified by home gym, using individual links so responses can be joined to home gym and region. Target 1,000 completes: 72 from each of six randomly selected gyms and 71 from each of the other eight. As an initial batch, invite 360 randomly selected members from each 72-complete gym and 355 from each 71-complete gym, assuming a 20% completion rate; invite further random batches from under-target gyms as needed, up to all eligible members. Monitor invitations and response rates by gym and avoid claiming representativeness from quotas alone. The requested per-gym precision is not achievable with about 1,000 completes: for a worst-case 50% proportion, approximately 151 completes per gym, or 2,114 in total, are needed for ±8 percentage points at 95% confidence before finite-population adjustment. With roughly 71–72 per gym, the corresponding margin is approximately ±11.6 points before that adjustment. If ±8 points is mandatory, agree a larger sample; otherwise report the limitation and actual intervals. Subgroup estimates, especially for overnight users, will be less precise.