Benchmarks / SurveyBench / Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours? / Muse Wonder

Measured by Spring Prompt

Muse Wonder: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✓ Sound research
Research score
94 of 100
Analysis rating
1,460
Head to head, this task
won 11 of 15

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,3994,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.3 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1919
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓8%8%

Traps in the data 8 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✓Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not close all 14 gyms 11pm-5am on this evidence. Keep 24-hour opening as the default, and move to selective closure only where objective door-entry data (not this survey) show sustained near-zero overnight use: rank all 14 gyms by unique overnight users, visits per night and revenue at risk over at least 3 months, then pilot closure at the 2-3 quietest with advance notice, a price/value communication that pre-empts the widespread 'same price for less' objection, and monitoring of cancellations and 10pm/5am crowding. The survey justifies investigating selective closure - 94% of members did not enter overnight in September and only 24% joined for 24 hours - but it also shows blanket closure puts a concentrated, high-frequency segment (night-shift workers, 48% likely to cancel) at near-certain risk and, on reweighted stated intent, ~11% of the whole base in play.

What would change it

Door-entry and membership data by gym showing that some gyms have effectively zero unique overnight users and negligible night-shift membership over 3+ months, plus a pilot at those gyms showing actual cancellations and boundary-hour congestion close to zero and no price-cut pressure, would support extending closure. Conversely, pilot cancellations approaching the reweighted 11.4%, competitor switching in exit data, or 10pm/5am capacity problems would support keeping 24 hours everywhere. Evidence on overnight running costs, safety incidents and prospective-member demand for 24 hours could also shift the balance either way.

Findings

  1. Blanket closure is not supported as low-impact: even after correcting for over-representation of overnight users, about 1 in 9 members say they are likely to cancel.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Unweighted Q4 likely to cancel 14.6% (139/950). Reweighted to door-entry population (6% overnight users, 94% others): 0.06x45.8% + 0.94x9.2% = 11.4%, ~4,399 of 38,600 members. This is stated intention, not observed behaviour, so treat as an upper-bound risk signal, not a forecast.

  2. Operations is right that overnight use is a minority activity in the population, but wrong to infer it is negligible: actual door entry is 6%, and for those who do use it, use is frequent and often irreplaceable.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Door records: 6% (~2,316 members) entered 11pm-5am at least once in September. Survey reports 14.9% +/-2.3pp (142/950), 2.5x the door figure, showing self-selection. Among the 142 survey overnight users, median visits fall in the 2-3 band and mean is 7.4 in 4 weeks, skewed by heavy users (e.g. night-shift workers reporting 8-14 and 15+ visits).

  3. The cancellation risk is concentrated, not general: overnight users and night-shift workers are about 5x as likely to say they will cancel as non-overnight users.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Q4 likely: overnight users 45.8% (65/142) vs non-users 9.2% (74/808); shifts including nights 48.2% (27/56) vs mainly daytime 12.5%, not in paid work 8.4%. Q5: 59.2% of overnight users and 55.4% of night-shift workers chose Corefit for 24-hour opening, vs 17.8% of non-users and 24.0% overall.

  4. Marketing's brand concern is real but narrower than '24 hours for everyone': only a quarter joined for 24-hour access, yet losing it creates a second risk among non-users - expectation of a price cut and resentment at paying the same for less.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q5 'Open 24 hours' 24.0% (228/950), behind price 68.9% and location 62.6%. In open text, dozens of non-overnight users who say closure would not affect their visits still spontaneously demand a lower fee. 9.2% of non-overnight users also say they are likely to cancel, so risk is not confined to current overnight users.

  5. There is no evidence for the regional manager's North West vs North East claim, and no reliable survey basis for deciding by individual gym.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Q4 likely: North West 19.2% (44/229) vs North East 13.6% (30/220), gap 5.6pp, 95% CI for difference approx +/-6.8pp - not significant. Gym bases are only 61-81, and Wakefield Calder Park is n=11 (Q1 overnight 54.5%, Q4 likely 27.3% on ~3-6 people) - unusable. Gym-level decisions must use door-entry counts by site, not this survey.

  6. Closure would displace, not just remove, demand: non-overnight users who train at 10-11pm and 5-6am expect crowding, which could create secondary dissatisfaction at exactly the boundary hours.

    Medium confidenceBase 239

    Recurring open-text theme from members who never use 11pm-5am themselves (e.g. M057, M058, M119, M152, M177, M190, M324, M361, M509, M529, M812, M918) fearing overnight users will compress into 10pm and 5am slots. Q2: only 5.4% usually arrive 11pm-5am, but 35.4% arrive 5pm-11pm and 22.0% 5am-9am, so boundary capacity matters.

  7. A minority welcome closure on safety grounds, but this is a preference among non-users, not evidence overnight opening is unsafe, and should not be used to justify closure.

    Low confidenceBase 239

    Open-text answers (e.g. M009, M069, M103, M285, M534, M675) call unstaffed overnight access uneasy/unsafe and welcome closure. No incident, safety or staffing-cost data were provided in this study.

Caveats

  • Very low response: 950 completes from 11,900 invited (8.0%), unweighted, median completion 4m30s. Overnight users are heavily over-represented (survey 14.9% vs door-entry 6%), so all unweighted totals overstate overnight use and cancellation risk; the 11.4% reweighted figure corrects only for that one variable, not for other non-response bias (no population profile for working pattern, tenure or gym was supplied to weight against).
  • Q4 is hypothetical stated intention on a rolling monthly contract. 'Likely to cancel' (14.6% unweighted, 11.4% reweighted, ~4,399 members) will not translate 1:1 into actual cancellations; 32.3% answered 'neither', whose behaviour is unknown. Do not book this as a churn forecast or as revenue loss without a pilot.
  • Small bases drive key subgroups: night-shift workers n=56, individual gyms n=61-81, Wakefield n=11. Regional and gym differences in the tables are mostly within sampling error; the North West-North East gap is not significant at 95%.
  • Open text was answered by only 239 of 950 and is self-selecting; theme counts (16 'only time I can train' due to shifts, 19 overnight users saying they would switch) illustrate mechanisms, they are not prevalence estimates. Some open-text answers are internally inconsistent (e.g. respondents coded as overnight visitors saying they never go overnight, and mentions of places/prices inconsistent with their stated home gym), so verbatims should be used for language and reasons, not as factual records.
  • The survey measures members only (screened at S1), at one point in time (1-14 Oct 2026, usage recalled for last 4 weeks vs September door data). It says nothing about prospective members deterred by losing 24-hour access, competitor offers nearby each gym, overnight operating/safety costs, or revenue per member - all of which the closure decision also needs.

Next steps

  • researchProduce gym-by-gym overnight demand pack from door-entry and membership systems: unique users, visits/night, visits per user, tenure and monthly fee, for at least Sep-Nov 2026, for all 14 gyms.
  • experimentPilot 11pm-5am closure for 3 months at the 2-3 quietest gyms identified from door data, with matched non-pilot gyms as controls, 4+ weeks' member notice and targeted comms to identified overnight users.
  • decisionDecide and test the price/value proposition before any closure announcement: hold price with added value vs a small reduction, and message it explicitly as hours changing.
  • monitorDuring any pilot, monitor hourly door counts 9pm-midnight and 5-7am, equipment wait proxies/complaints, and safety incidents, weekly.
  • researchAdd a short exit/retention survey and competitor-destination question for cancellers at pilot and control gyms, and track re-joining.

Open-text themes it coded

No effect - never use 11pm-5am 90Expect a lower monthly fee if hours are cut 5111pm-5am is the only time I can train because of night/shift work 16Would move/switch to another 24-hour gym 19Concern displaced overnight users will crowd 10-11pm and 5-6am 31Welcome closure - unstaffed overnight feels unsafe 41

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Are you currently a member of Corefit?

    One answer
    • Yes, I am a current Corefit member
    • No, I am not a current Corefit member

    Continues if Yes, I am a current Corefit member

  2. Q1

    In the last 4 weeks, how many separate visits have you made to any Corefit gym, at any time of day or night?

    One answer
    • 0
    • 1-2
    • 3-5
    • 6-9
    • 10 or more
  3. Q2

    In the last 4 weeks, how many separate visits have you made to a Corefit gym that started between 11:00pm and 5:00am?

    One answer
    • 0
    • 1
    • 2-3
    • 4-5
    • 6 or more
  4. Q3

    Why did you visit a Corefit gym between 11:00pm and 5:00am in the last 4 weeks? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • It fits around my work or study hours
    • It fits around caring or family commitments
    • The gym is quieter at that time
    • I prefer to exercise at that time
    • It is the only time I can go
    • Another reason

    Routing Shown only if Q2 is: 1; 2-3; 4-5; 6 or more

  5. Q4

    How likely, if at all, are you to visit a Corefit gym between 11:00pm and 5:00am in the next 3 months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

    Routing Shown only if Q2 is: 0

  6. Q5

    Which of the following, if any, were reasons why you chose to join Corefit? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • Low monthly price
    • Rolling monthly membership with no long-term contract
    • A location close to my home
    • A location close to my work or place of study
    • Being open 24 hours a day
    • The range or quality of equipment and facilities
    • Recommendation from someone I know
    • Another reason
    • None of these
  7. Q6

    If the Corefit gym you use most often closed between 11:00pm and 5:00am every night, what would you be most likely to do?

    One answer
    • Stay a Corefit member and visit at a different time
    • Stay a Corefit member but visit less often
    • Cancel my Corefit membership and not join another gym
    • Cancel my Corefit membership and join a gym that is open overnight
    • I don't know
  8. Q7

    If the Corefit gym you use most often closed between 11:00pm and 5:00am every night, how likely would you be to still be a Corefit member 3 months later?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

  9. Q8

    Which one of the following best describes your usual work or study pattern?

    One answer
    • I usually work or study during the daytime
    • I usually work or study in the evenings
    • I usually work or study at night
    • My work or study hours change and include night shifts
    • My work or study hours change but do not include night shifts
    • I do not currently work or study
    • Another pattern
  10. Q9

    Which age group do you belong to?

    One answer
    • 16-24
    • 25-34
    • 35-44
    • 45-54
    • 55-64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
  11. Q10

    Is there anything else you would like to tell us about how closing Corefit gyms between 11:00pm and 5:00am would affect you?

    Open text
Sample plan

The stated target of about 1,000 completes cannot deliver +/-8 percentage points per gym: at 95% confidence and worst-case 50%, 1,000 split equally gives about 71 completes per gym and a margin of about +/-11.6 points. The required design is therefore a stratified random email sample targeting 2,240 completes: 160 per home gym x 14 gyms, giving about +/-7.7 points per gym before any finite-population correction. Home gym, region and recorded overnight-user stratum are already held on the membership database, so they are appended from the unique survey link rather than asked. Within each gym, stratify by door-entry records for September 2026: recorded overnight users (entered at least once 11pm-5am; 6% of members) and non-overnight users. Invite all recorded overnight users (about 2,316 members) to secure enough overnight users for analysis, plus a random sample of non-overnight users, approximately 9,000 invitations in total with reminders and top-up invitations by gym/stratum until quotas are met, aiming for at least 40 recorded overnight completes per gym where the population allows. Weight overall estimates back to the 38,600 member population by gym size and recorded overnight stratum; report gym-level estimates weighted only within gym by overnight stratum. Do not mention cost savings, staffing or low overnight use in the invitation or questionnaire.