GLM 5.3 FlashX Legal: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✗ Not sound
Research score: 58 of 100
Analysis rating: 997
Head to head, this task: won 15 of 15

Why it is not sound

The survey

Produced no usable survey

The analysis

Reported a material finding the data does not support
Missed a trap: The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.

Findings the judges found unsupported

Overnight use is a small minority of the membership, but it is not 'almost nobody'. Plan against the door-entry figure of 6% of members (about 2,316 people) who entered a gym between 11pm and 5am at least once in September, not against the survey's 14.9%. The survey has roughly 2.5 times too many overnight users.The mean of 7.4 does not establish that overnight users generally are heavy rather than occasional users. The distribution is skewed by heavy users, and the median overnight user falls in the 2-to-3-visit band.
The sample is badly skewed towards overnight users and cannot be read as a member census. Unweighted survey percentages must not be applied to the 38,600 without the door-entry weighting, and even then the 45.8% cancel rate among survey overnight users (mean 7.4 visits) will overstate churn among the much larger light-user population captured by door-entry.About 34.5%, not 45%, of the 142 overnight users reported eight or more visits. Door-entry frequency distributions were not supplied, so the claim that survey overnight users are heavier users than door-entry overnight users, and that their cancellation intentions therefore overstate those of that population, is not established.
24-hour access is a real but concentrated brand asset. One in four members say they chose Corefit for it; among overnight users it is a majority. Several open-text answers name PureGym, The Gym Group and Anytime Fitness as ready 24-hour alternatives, so switching is a practical option for some.The 24% choosing 24-hour access is an unweighted respondent percentage, not an established percentage of all members. Overnight users, who select this reason much more frequently, are over-represented. The finding's population-level 'one in four members' claim is therefore unsupported.
Night-shift workers are the dependent core, not the average member. They are 5.9% of the sample, 80.4% of them used the gym overnight, 48.2% say they would likely cancel, and 15 open-text answers state outright that 11pm–5am is the only time they can train (nurses, care workers, factory, warehouse, HGV). A full closure ends their membership in practice.A full closure cannot be said to end night-shift workers' memberships in practice: this turns hypothetical intentions and qualitative accounts into a definite behavioural outcome for the group. Also, 16 supplied answers explicitly describe shift-related dependence on overnight access, including M685, rather than the stated 15.
A large group of members who never go overnight would welcome closure on safety grounds because the gyms are unstaffed overnight. This is a genuine upside for operations and communications, not only a cost story. A second large group expects a monthly fee cut, and a third predicts their quiet 10pm or 5am slots will be swamped.The open texts establish safety, price and crowding themes among those answering, but do not establish that large groups across the membership hold these views. They also establish perceived safety concerns, not an independently demonstrated operational safety benefit from closure.

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

Question		Its answer	True
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?	✓	14.9%	14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?	✓	14.6%	14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?	✓	45.8%	45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?	✓	11.4%	11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?	✓	4,400	4,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').	✓	2	2
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?	✓	2.3 points	2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?	✓	15	16
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?	✓	19	19
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?	✓	8%	8%

Traps in the data 7 of 8 handled

✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
✗The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
✓Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not close all 14 gyms overnight, and do not keep every gym open on brand alone. Close overnight only at gyms where door-entry shows negligible 11pm–5am use, keep 24-hour access at gyms with proven overnight demand (especially where night-shift members cluster), and run the first closures as a 10–12 week trial with control gyms. Do not use this survey to privilege the North West: the NW–NE gap in stated cancellation is not significant. Pair any closure with a clear safety rationale (unstaffed overnight is a real member concern) and a tested price position, because a large minority will demand a fee cut and a smaller group will switch to a 24-hour competitor. Protect the captive night-shift segment with a retained alternative (a small number of 24-hour hubs, or partner-gym access) before any wider rollout. Treat ~4,400 as the stated-intent ceiling on churn, not the forecast; the hard core is closer to the 6% who actually use the hours, of whom night-shift workers are the ones with no alternative. Get the cost model before the operations director's 'almost nobody' framing drives a full closure: if the gyms are already unstaffed overnight, the savings may not justify even the real churn.

What would change it

A full-estate closure would become the right call if (a) door-entry by site showed overnight use below a low threshold everywhere, (b) the cost of keeping 11pm–5am open (energy, incidents, insurance, any staffing) exceeded the realistic churn revenue even after the intent-to-behaviour haircut, (c) the trial showed 5am/10pm crowding was manageable, and (d) night-shift members could be retained another way or were too few to matter commercially. Conversely, the recommendation to keep some sites open 24 hours would strengthen if door-entry showed stable overnight communities at particular gyms, if those sites have no 24-hour competitor nearby, or if 5am displacement looked severe enough to push daytime members out. If a price test shows members will not accept the same fee for fewer hours, the commercial case for closure weakens unless fees are cut, which must then be modelled against savings. Historical conversion rates from 'likely to cancel' to actual cancel, and the operations director confirming whether overnight is already unstaffed, would also move the recommendation.

Findings

Overnight use is a small minority of the membership, but it is not 'almost nobody'. Plan against the door-entry figure of 6% of members (about 2,316 people) who entered a gym between 11pm and 5am at least once in September, not against the survey's 14.9%. The survey has roughly 2.5 times too many overnight users.

High confidenceBase 950

Q1: 14.9% of 950 respondents (142 people) reported at least one overnight visit in the last four weeks. Door-entry: 6% of 38,600 members (about 2,316) entered overnight at least once in September 2026. Among the 142, mean visits were 7.4 in four weeks, so the users there are are heavy, not occasional.
Closing the whole estate overnight would put a material but smaller-than-headline share of members at stated churn risk. Weighted to the 6%/94% door-entry split, 11.4% of members (about 4,400 people) say they would be likely to cancel. Stated intent will overstate actual cancels, especially among light or non-users, but the night-shift core is real.

Medium confidenceBase 950

Q4: likely to cancel is 45.8% of the 142 overnight users, 9.2% of the 808 non-overnight users, 14.6% of all 950. Weighted: 0.06×45.8 + 0.94×9.2 = 11.4%. 11.4% of 38,600 ≈ 4,400. The 9.2% among people who do not use the hours is the larger absolute number (~3,300) and is the least reliable.
The sample is badly skewed towards overnight users and cannot be read as a member census. Unweighted survey percentages must not be applied to the 38,600 without the door-entry weighting, and even then the 45.8% cancel rate among survey overnight users (mean 7.4 visits) will overstate churn among the much larger light-user population captured by door-entry.

High confidenceBase 950

Survey overnight share 14.9% (n=950) versus door-entry 6% (n≈2,316 of 38,600). Q1 among the 142: 45% had 8 or more visits in four weeks. Response rate was 8.0% of those invited (950/11,900), with obvious topic self-selection.
There is no reliable evidence that North West members are more likely to cancel than North East members. The regional manager should not keep the North West open 24 hours on this survey alone. Gym-level survey cuts are worse: Wakefield Calder Park has n=11.

Medium confidenceBase 449

Q4 likely to cancel: North West 19.2% of 229 vs North East 13.6% of 220. Two-proportion z ≈ 1.6, p > 0.05. Yorkshire is lowest at 12.3% (n=366), Scotland 14.8% (n=135). Wakefield: 54.5% overnight users and 27.3% likely to cancel on a base of 11.
24-hour access is a real but concentrated brand asset. One in four members say they chose Corefit for it; among overnight users it is a majority. Several open-text answers name PureGym, The Gym Group and Anytime Fitness as ready 24-hour alternatives, so switching is a practical option for some.

High confidenceBase 950

Q5 'Open 24 hours': 24.0% of 950 overall, 59.2% of the 142 overnight users, 55.4% of the 56 night-shift workers, 17.8% of the 808 who did not use overnight. Open text names competitors at M224, M459, M467, M623, M713, M942 and others.
Night-shift workers are the dependent core, not the average member. They are 5.9% of the sample, 80.4% of them used the gym overnight, 48.2% say they would likely cancel, and 15 open-text answers state outright that 11pm–5am is the only time they can train (nurses, care workers, factory, warehouse, HGV). A full closure ends their membership in practice.

High confidenceBase 56

Q1 net at least one visit: 80.4% of 56 night-shift respondents vs 10.3% of 455 mainly-daytime respondents. Q4 likely to cancel: 48.2% of 56. Q5 24-hour as a join reason: 55.4%. Open-text IDs M162, M166, M222, M300, M321, M492, M551, M568, M592, M593, M695, M752, M793, M889, M924.
A large group of members who never go overnight would welcome closure on safety grounds because the gyms are unstaffed overnight. This is a genuine upside for operations and communications, not only a cost story. A second large group expects a monthly fee cut, and a third predicts their quiet 10pm or 5am slots will be swamped.

Medium confidenceBase 239

Of 239 open-text answers, 42 welcome closure or raise unstaffed-overnight safety; 51 expect a lower fee; 30 predict crowding of late-evening or 5am slots. Q2: 85.1% of the sample had no overnight visit. Q5: only 17.8% of non-overnight users joined for 24-hour access.
The operations director's cost case is unproven. Open text repeatedly describes overnight sessions as unstaffed, so closing 11pm–5am may not remove labour cost. Savings are likely limited to energy, wear, incidents and insurance. Without a cost model, 'almost nobody uses it' is not the same as 'we should close'.

Medium confidenceBase 239

Open text: M009, M069, M103, M118, M144, M150, M151, M197, M285, M528, M675, M781, M819, M868 and others refer to no staff on site overnight. No cost, staffing or incident data was provided in the brief.

Caveats

The survey overstates overnight use: 14.9% of respondents versus 6% of members in door-entry data. This is almost certainly self-selection (8.0% response rate on a survey about overnight hours) plus a heavier mix of users (mean 7.4 visits among the 142). Do not apply 14.9% or 45.8% to the full membership without the 6%/94% weighting.
Tables are unweighted. If the sample also differs from the membership on working pattern, region or tenure, other estimates are biased too. There is no population benchmark for Q7 working pattern.
Stated cancellation intent (Q4) is hypothetical and will overstate actual churn, especially among the 808 people who do not use the hours. Typical intent-to-behaviour conversion is far below 100%. The 11.4% / 4,400 figure is a risk ceiling, not a forecast.
The 45.8% cancel rate among survey overnight users will overstate churn among all 2,316 door-entry overnight users, because door-entry includes people who went once in a month while the survey over-represents 8+ visit heavy users.
Q1 and Q3 conflict for a few respondents (for example M034 and M305 are tagged as overnight visitors but say they never use those hours). Treat individual records with care.
Open text is 239 of 950 completes and is self-selected towards people who feel strongly. It is good for themes, not for measuring how many members feel that way.
Gym-level bases are too small for site decisions from this survey (Wakefield Calder Park n=11; most gyms n=61–81). The 95% MoE on the overall 14.9% is ±2.3pp; gym-level MoEs are much wider.
No cost, staffing, incident, energy or insurance data was provided. Open text implies overnight is already unstaffed, in which case closure savings are not primarily labour.
No competitor-proximity data. Switch risk depends on whether a PureGym, The Gym Group or Anytime Fitness sits near each site.
Q1 asks about any Corefit gym in the last four weeks; door-entry is September entries. Windows differ slightly but cannot explain a 14.9% vs 6% gap.
Region is taken from home gym at Q6, not from address. A few open-text answers mention using a different gym from the one named (for example M100, M429, M592), so home gym is not always the visited gym.
This is a stated-preference study of a change that has not been trialled. Crowding at 5am and 10pm, price expectations and actual cancels are untested.

Next steps

researchPull at least six months of door-entry data by gym and by hour; rank all 14 gyms by unique overnight users and overnight entries per 100 members, and look for night-shift clusters (same members, same small hours, most weeks).
decisionBuild a cost model of closing 11pm–5am (energy, wear, incidents, insurance, any staffing) against churn revenue at 5%, 10% and 15% of members cancelling, using actual average revenue per member by gym.
experimentTrial overnight closure at the three or four quietest gyms for 10–12 weeks, holding similar gyms open as controls. Communicate a safety rationale and a single clear price position. Measure actual cancellations, membership freezes, 5–7am and 10pm–11pm occupancy, complaints and competitor joins.
researchMap 24-hour competitor gyms within a short walk or drive of each Corefit, with their prices.
researchIdentify night-shift members (CRM, employer partnerships, or a short follow-up) and cost a retained offer, for example two or three 24-hour hub gyms or partner-gym access.
monitorIf closures proceed, monitor 5am–7am and 10pm–11pm occupancy, queue/equipment waits, complaints and NPS among early-morning and late-evening members.

Open-text themes it coded

No personal impact (does not use overnight) 89Welcomes closure or cites safety concerns about unstaffed overnight hours 42Expects a lower monthly fee if hours are cut 51Predicts crowding of remaining quiet slots (late evening or early morning) 30Overnight is the only time they can train because of night or shift work 15Would switch to another 24-hour gym 19

The survey it planned

This model produced no usable survey for this task.