Benchmarks / SurveyBench / Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours? / DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017

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DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✗ Not sound
Research score
86 of 100
Analysis rating
1,221
Head to head, this task
won 5 of 13

Why it is not sound

The analysis

  • Reported a material finding the data does not support
  • Missed a trap: The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • Missed a trap: Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

Findings the judges found unsupported

  • Closing all gyms overnight would likely lose about one in nine members on stated intentions, concentrated among current overnight users.The weighted 11.4% is a supported calculation of stated cancellation intentions, not evidence that closure would actually lose about 4,400 members. The headline presents it as a loss forecast despite the later caveat.
  • Night-shift workers are the core overnight segment and would be disproportionately lost if overnight opening ended.Night-shift workers' dependence on overnight access is supported, but saying they would be disproportionately lost treats hypothetical cancellation intentions as actual future behaviour.
  • Gym-level differences are larger and more actionable than regional differences, but several gym bases are very small.The observed gym-level ranges do not establish that underlying gym differences are larger or more actionable than regional differences. The gym estimates are unweighted, have limited bases and have not been tested for reliable differences.
  • 24-hour opening is not the main joining reason overall, but it is important to overnight users and to the brand.The survey supports 24-hour access being a joining reason for some current members, especially overnight users. It does not establish its importance to the wider brand, prospective members or recruitment.

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,4004,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.3 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1919
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓7.98%8%

Traps in the data 6 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✗The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✗Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not close all 14 gyms overnight. Keep 24-hour opening where overnight use and likely cancellation are highest, and consider closing overnight only at the quietest sites after validating gym-level door-entry and local churn risk. If any site closes, reduce price or offer equivalent credit and communicate the change; do not use North West vs North East as the cut criterion.

What would change it

Gym-level door-entry showing very low overnight use at most sites, and a controlled pilot showing actual cancellations well below stated intentions without peak-hour crowding, would justify broader closures. Conversely, if more sites show high overnight use, or pilot churn among overnight users is high, keep all sites open 24 hours.

Findings

  1. Overnight use is a minority but not negligible: door records show 6% of all members used 11pm-5am in September, while the survey shows 14.9% reporting at least one such visit in four weeks; treat the survey as overstating population prevalence.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Q1 net at least one visit = 14.9% (142/950); door-entry population figure = 6% (~2,316/38,600); among survey overnight users, mean 7.4 visits in four weeks.

  2. Closing all gyms overnight would likely lose about one in nine members on stated intentions, concentrated among current overnight users.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q4 likely to cancel: all respondents 14.6%; overnight users 45.8% vs non-users 9.2%; weighted 6% overnight users / 94% others gives 11.4%, or about 4,400 of 38,600 members.

  3. Night-shift workers are the core overnight segment and would be disproportionately lost if overnight opening ended.

    Medium confidenceBase 56

    80.4% of respondents on shifts including nights reported at least one 11pm-5am visit (45/56); 16 open-text answers explicitly say overnight is the only shift-compatible training window.

  4. Closure would also affect some non-overnight users by displacing overnight traffic into 10pm-11pm and 5am-6am quiet slots.

    Medium confidenceBase 239

    31 open-text answers cite crowding or loss of quiet slots around 10pm/5am; Q2 shows 35.4% usually arrive 5pm-11pm and 22.0% arrive 5am-9am.

  5. The claim that North West members are much more likely to leave than North East members is not supported statistically.

    High confidenceBase 449

    Likely to cancel: North West 19.2% (44/229) vs North East 13.6% (30/220); difference 5.6pp, z≈1.6, p≈0.11, not significant at 95%.

  6. Gym-level differences are larger and more actionable than regional differences, but several gym bases are very small.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Overnight visit share by home gym ranges from 7.5% at Leeds Kirkstall to 54.5% at Wakefield (base 11); likely-cancel ranges from 6.6% at Bradford to 27.3% at Wakefield. High-use examples: Newcastle Byker 20.3%/18.9% likely cancel, Manchester Ancoats 18.5%/21.0%, Glasgow Finnieston 20.0%/17.1%; lower examples: Leeds Kirkstall 7.5%/8.8%, Middlesbrough 9.9%/8.6%.

  7. 24-hour opening is not the main joining reason overall, but it is important to overnight users and to the brand.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Open 24 hours cited by 24.0% overall, 59.2% of overnight users, versus low monthly price 68.9% and close to home/work 62.6%.

  8. There is a real safety/relief constituency for overnight closure, and a strong price-reduction expectation if hours are cut.

    Medium confidenceBase 239

    42 open-text answers welcome closure or feel safer without unstaffed overnight opening; 53 expect a lower monthly fee if opening hours are reduced.

  9. Low response and unweighted tables mean member-wide estimates should be governed by door-entry and actual churn, not survey prevalence alone.

    High confidenceBase 950

    950 completes from 11,900 invited = 7.98%; Q1 overnight share 14.9% vs 6% door-entry.

Caveats

  • Response rate is only 7.98% (950/11,900), and tables are unweighted; non-response and self-selection are likely.
  • The survey over-represents overnight users relative to door-entry records: 14.9% in the survey vs 6% population door-entry in September. Use door-entry for population prevalence.
  • Q4 measures stated likelihood to cancel, not actual behaviour; it does not tell respondents a price change would accompany closure.
  • Gym-level and shift-worker bases are small in places: Wakefield has base 11; shifts-including-nights base 56. Treat these as directional.
  • Open-text themes are from 239 of 950 respondents and are not representative; they are useful for explaining risk, not for estimating its size.
  • Region is based on home gym; members may use other Corefit sites, so closing only some gyms may have different impact from closing all.
  • No cost, revenue, or competitor data are provided, so the net financial case cannot be calculated from these tables alone.

Next steps

  • decisionDecide not to close all 14 gyms; shortlist only sites with low door-entry overnight use and low local cancellation risk.
  • experimentRun a 8-12 week overnight-closure pilot at 2-3 quietest gyms, with price/credit and communications.
  • monitorAnalyse door-entry by gym and hour for at least three months and compare with nearby 24-hour competitors.
  • researchInterview or survey night-shift users and 10pm/5am regulars at shortlisted sites before closure.
  • decisionIf closing any site overnight, test a price reduction or credit and monitor churn; if keeping 24 hours, market it explicitly.

Open-text themes it coded

No effect / never uses overnight 90Expects lower monthly fee if hours are cut 52Welcomes closure / feels safer without unstaffed overnight opening 42Would cancel, leave, or switch to another gym 20Overnight is the only viable training time because of shifts/night work 16Concern about displacing overnight users into 10pm/5am and crowding quiet slots 31

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Which of these best describes your Corefit membership?

    One answer
    • I have an active Corefit monthly membership
    • My membership has been cancelled, frozen or has lapsed
    • I have never been a Corefit member
    • I'm not sure

    Continues if I have an active Corefit monthly membership

  2. Q1

    In the last 4 weeks, how many times have you been inside a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am? Please count any visit, however short, including visits that started before 11pm and finished after 11pm.

    One answer
    • Never
    • Once
    • 2 to 3 times
    • 4 to 7 times
    • 8 to 14 times
    • 15 times or more
  3. Q2

    Which Corefit gym do you use as your home gym?

    One answer
    • [The member's home gym from the database, shown pre-selected]
    • [Each of the other Corefit gyms, listed]
    • I use two or more Corefit gyms equally
    • A gym not listed here
  4. Q3

    Which of these were reasons you chose Corefit? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • The price of membership
    • The location, close to home or work
    • Being able to use the gym 24 hours a day
    • No long-term contract, so I can leave month to month
    • The equipment and facilities
    • The classes and timetable
    • A friend or family member recommended it
    • It was the only gym convenient for me
    • None of these, or I can't remember
  5. Q4

    How important was being able to use the gym 24 hours a day when you decided to join Corefit?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Not at all important to Extremely important

  6. Q5

    Corefit is reviewing whether its gyms should stay open between 11pm and 5am. If your home gym stopped opening between 11pm and 5am, how would this affect you?

    One answer
    • Not at all, I never use the gym between 11pm and 5am
    • A little, I would just use the gym at a different time
    • Moderately, I would sometimes have to find another time or place to train
    • A lot, it would seriously disrupt my training or my work
    • Not sure
  7. Q6

    If your home gym stopped opening between 11pm and 5am, how likely would you be to keep your Corefit membership?

    One answer
    • I would definitely keep it
    • I would probably keep it
    • I would probably cancel it
    • I would definitely cancel it
    • I don't know
  8. Q7

    If your home gym stopped opening between 11pm and 5am, which of these would you use instead? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • Another Corefit gym that stays open 24 hours
    • Another gym that is not Corefit
    • Train at home or outdoors
    • Use my Corefit gym at a different time of day
    • I would not train at those times any more
    • Something else

    Routing Shown only if Q5 is: Moderately, I would sometimes have to find another time or place to train; A lot, it would seriously disrupt my training or my work

  9. Q8

    Which of these best describes your usual working pattern?

    One answer
    • Regular daytime hours, roughly 7am to 7pm
    • Starts before 7am
    • Evening or night shifts
    • Shifts that change from week to week
    • Not currently in paid work
    • Student
    • Other
  10. Q9

    Which age group are you in?

    One answer
    • 16 to 24
    • 25 to 34
    • 35 to 44
    • 45 to 54
    • 55 to 64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
  11. Q10

    Is there anything else you would like us to know about how you use your gym, or about how closing between 11pm and 5am would affect you?

    Open text

    Routing Shown only if Q1 is: Once; 2 to 3 times; 4 to 7 times; 8 to 14 times; 15 times or more

Sample plan

Everyone invited is a current member drawn from the membership database, which already holds a home gym and an email address for each of the 38,600 members. Design: a random sample stratified by home gym - 8,000 invitations (about 21% of the base), drawn at random within each of the 14 gyms, allocated in proportion to gym size but with a floor of 350 invitations per gym so that no gym depends on a handful of replies. Unique single-use links, a 14-day field period, one reminder on day 7, and entry into a prize draw, with no other exclusion beyond the screener. Expected completes: about 1,000 at a 12-13% response rate (plan for 800-1,300); no gym stratum closes below 60 completes. STOP AND FLAG THE PRECISION PROBLEM TO THE BOARD: plus or minus 8 percentage points at 95% confidence for a proportion near 50% needs n of about 151 per gym, i.e. roughly 2,115 completes across the 14 gyms - about double the 1,000 commissioned. At 1,000 completes (about 71 per gym) gym-level results will be plus or minus 11 to 12 percentage points, not 8. Two honest options: (a) fund about 2,150 completes (invite about 16,000-17,000 members) so every gym reaches about 151; or (b) keep 1,000 completes and pool the 14 gyms into 4 or 5 size-and-region tiers of 151+ respondents each, which restores plus or minus 8 at tier level, with gym-level figures reported as indicative only. Option (a) is the right call if the close-the-quietest-gyms option stays on the table, because that decision is made gym by gym. Second gap to fix: overnight users are only about 6% of members, so 1,000 random completes yields about 60 overnight respondents, too few for any subgroup comparison. Recommend an oversample - a random sample of 400 members whose door records show at least one 11pm-5am entry in the last 3 months, invited in addition to the main sample and weighted back to 6% in analysis. Weighting: home gym x database profile (age band, membership length), overnight oversample down-weighted; design weights reported alongside unweighted bases, and any base under 50 suppressed.