Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict: ✗ Not sound
Research score: 71 of 100
Analysis rating: 810
Head to head, this task: won 6 of 10

Why it is not sound

The survey

Ignored the precision the brief asked for, which the sample cannot deliver
Answer bands that overlap or leave gaps

The analysis

Reported a material finding the data does not support
Missed a trap: Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
Missed a trap: Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

Findings the judges found unsupported

Closing all gyms overnight carries a substantial risk of membership loss, far beyond the small group who actually use the gyms at night.The weighted 11.4% is hypothetical stated cancellation intention, not a prediction that roughly 4,400 members will leave. The later use of it as an estimated membership revenue loss repeats this error despite the caveat. Current members' reported joining reasons also do not establish the wider recruitment or brand effect of 24-hour opening.
An overnight closure risks severely degrading the daytime member experience by displacing overnight users into adjacent hours.The open-text answers establish concerns about crowding, not that displacement will severely degrade the member experience. Actual displacement and spare capacity have not been measured.
A large portion of the membership expects a fee reduction if operating hours are cut.Fee-reduction requests in the supplied open-text answers do not establish that a large portion of the entire membership expects a reduction. Nor do the data establish that withholding a price cut makes stated cancellation intentions more likely to become actual churn.

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

Question		Its answer	True
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?	✓	14.9%	14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?	✓	14.6%	14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?	✓	45.8%	45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?	✓	11.4%	11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?	✓	4,400	4,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').	✓	2	2
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?	✓	2.3 points	2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)	✓	No	No
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?	✓	16	16
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?	✓	19	19
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?	✓	8%	8%

Traps in the data 6 of 8 handled

✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
✗Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
✗Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not implement a blanket closure of all 14 gyms, as the Marketing Director's fear of alienating the membership base is warranted (24-hour access is deeply tied to the brand proposition). Instead, close overnight only at the quietest gyms. This targeted approach mitigates the Operations Director's cost concerns and resolves member anxieties about unstaffed buildings, without completely eroding the 24-hour brand and abandoning shift workers across the entire estate.

What would change it

If door-entry capacity modeling proves that the 10pm and 5am slots absolutely cannot absorb the displaced overnight members at the quietest gyms without hitting safety limits, or if financial models show the savings of a blanket closure vastly outweigh the estimated 11.4% membership revenue loss.

Findings

Closing all gyms overnight carries a substantial risk of membership loss, far beyond the small group who actually use the gyms at night.

High confidenceBase 950

While entry records show only 6% of members visit overnight, a weighted calculation predicts 11.4% of members (roughly 4,400 people) are likely to cancel if the gyms close. 24-hour access is a core brand proposition chosen by 24.0% of respondents when they joined.
The regional manager's concern regarding higher flight risk in the North West compared to the North East is statistically unfounded.

High confidenceBase 449

The difference in cancellation likelihood between the North West (19.2%) and North East (13.6%) is not statistically significant at the 95% level.
An overnight closure risks severely degrading the daytime member experience by displacing overnight users into adjacent hours.

High confidenceBase 239

31 open-text responses flagged major concerns that 10pm and 5am slots will become overcrowded, ruining the quiet periods that many members actively target.
Many members actively want the gym to close overnight due to safety anxieties.

High confidenceBase 239

42 open-text responses expressed relief at the idea of an overnight closure, indicating that the knowledge of an open, unstaffed building leaves them feeling unsafe or uneasy.
A large portion of the membership expects a fee reduction if operating hours are cut.

High confidenceBase 239

51 open-text responses explicitly demanded a lower monthly direct debit. Without a price cut, theoretical cancellation intent is more likely to turn into actual churn.

Caveats

Stated intent to cancel in surveys frequently overestimates actual cancellation behavior.
The unweighted survey data drastically over-represents overnight visitors (14.9% vs the true 6% from entry records), which skews top-line 'Total' numbers unless correctly weighted.
Respondents answering the cancellation likelihood question were not told whether their monthly fee would decrease; their answers likely assume the fee stays the same.

Next steps

experimentPilot an overnight closure at the 2-3 quietest gyms.
researchAnalyze historic door-entry data between 5am-6am and 10pm-11pm across all sites.

Open-text themes it coded

Expectation of lower monthly fee 51Safety concerns regarding unstaffed night hours 42Worry about displacement causing overcrowding at 5am or 10pm 31Will switch to a competitor if closed overnight 19Shift workers left with no alternative time to train 16

The survey it planned

2 screening questions and 6 questions, as the model wrote them.

S1
Are you currently an active member of a Corefit gym?
One answer
- Yes
- No
Continues if Yes
S2
Which Corefit gym is your primary location?
One answer
- Gym 1 (Scotland)
- Gym 2 (Scotland)
- Gym 3 (Scotland)
- Gym 4 (Scotland)
- Gym 5 (North England)
- Gym 6 (North England)
- Gym 7 (North England)
- Gym 8 (North England)
- Gym 9 (North England)
- Gym 10 (North England)
- Gym 11 (North England)
- Gym 12 (North England)
- Gym 13 (North England)
- Gym 14 (North England)
Continues if Gym 1 (Scotland); Gym 2 (Scotland); Gym 3 (Scotland); Gym 4 (Scotland); Gym 5 (North England); Gym 6 (North England); Gym 7 (North England); Gym 8 (North England); Gym 9 (North England); Gym 10 (North England); Gym 11 (North England); Gym 12 (North England); Gym 13 (North England); Gym 14 (North England)
Q1
Thinking back to when you joined Corefit, which of the following were your main reasons for choosing us? (Select up to 3)
Any that apply
- Affordable membership price
- 24-hour opening times
- Rolling monthly contract
- Location / proximity to home or work
- Quality and amount of equipment
- Gym atmosphere and facilities
Q2
In an average month, how often do you visit a Corefit gym between the hours of 11pm and 5am?
One answer
- Never
- Less than once a month
- 1 to 3 times a month
- 1 to 2 times a week
- 3 or more times a week
Q3
If Corefit decided to close your primary gym overnight between 11pm and 5am, how would this affect you?
One answer
- It would not affect me at all
- I would easily adjust my workout times to when the gym is open
- I would struggle to adjust my workout times
- I would not be able to use Corefit anymore
Q4
If your primary Corefit gym was no longer open between 11pm and 5am, how likely would you be to cancel your membership?
Scale

Scale 1-5: Extremely unlikely to cancel to Extremely likely to cancel
Q5
Which of the following best describes your typical working or studying pattern?
One answer
- Standard daytime hours (e.g. 9am to 5pm)
- Evening shifts
- Night shifts
- Rotating, flexible, or irregular shifts
- Student
- Not currently working / Other
Q6
What is your age group?
One answer
- 16-24
- 25-34
- 35-44
- 45-54
- 55-64
- 65 or older

Sample plan

Email invitations will be sent to a random, stratified sample of current members based on the home gym on file. To meet the required +/- 8 percentage points at 95% confidence per gym for a behavior with an estimated 6% to 10% prevalence, we will set a quota of exactly 72 completed surveys for each of the 14 gyms. This will result in a total of 1,008 completes across the chain, safely satisfying both the total completes constraint (~1000) and the precision requirement per individual gym.