Benchmarks / SurveyBench / Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours? / Particle-1

Measured by Spring Prompt

Particle-1: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✗ Not sound
Research score
82 of 100
Analysis rating
1,193
Head to head, this task
won 8 of 15

Why it is not sound

The survey

  • Answer bands that overlap or leave gaps

The analysis

  • Reported a material finding the data does not support
  • Missed a trap: Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

Findings the judges found unsupported

  • The 24-hour brand matters strongly to overnight users but is not the dominant reason most members joined, so marketing risk is concentrated rather than universal.Reasons current members recall choosing Corefit do not establish that marketing or brand risk is concentrated among overnight users. The survey excludes prospective members and former members and does not measure the wider brand effect.
  • Site-level variation is the actionable pattern: overnight use and cancellation risk differ widely by home gym, and regional aggregation hides this.The observed gym-level percentages differ, but the survey does not establish reliable underlying site differences or rankings. Calling these differences the actionable pattern goes beyond the small, unweighted site samples, although the caveats and recommendation to use door-entry records reduce the risk.
  • Stated cancellation is an upper-bound risk estimate: most non-users still say they would not cancel, but response bias, the hypothetical wording, and the gap between survey self-report and door-entry records mean actual churn should be tested in a pilot.Stated cancellation intentions are not a demonstrated upper bound on actual cancellations. Hypothetical wording and response bias justify uncertainty and testing, but do not establish a ceiling.

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,3994,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.3 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1919
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓7.98%8%

Traps in the data 7 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✗Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not close all 14 gyms overnight. Use site-level door-entry data to close overnight only at the quietest and lowest-cancellation-risk gyms, ideally as a controlled pilot, while retaining 24-hour opening at high-use or high-risk sites such as Newcastle Byker, Manchester Ancoats, Glasgow Finnieston and Hull Marina until proven otherwise. If a site is closed, communicate the change carefully, protect shift workers who depend on overnight access, and assess whether a fee adjustment or retention offer is needed because many non-users still expect lower prices.

What would change it

If site-level door-entry records show overnight use is very low across most sites and a pilot produces no material excess cancellations, complaints or shift-worker attrition, a wider roll-out of overnight closure at quiet sites would be justified. If pilot cancellations, brand backlash, or competitor switching among overnight users exceed agreed thresholds, keep all sites open 24 hours or introduce a lower-cost overnight access solution rather than closing.

Findings

  1. Overnight use is a real minority, not 'almost nobody': the survey finds 14.9% reporting at least one 11pm-5am visit in four weeks, far above the 6% door-entry benchmark, so the survey likely overstates but still confirms meaningful overnight demand.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Q1 net at least one visit: 14.9% (142/950). Door-entry records: 6% of members, about 2,316 people, entered overnight at least once in September 2026.

  2. A blanket overnight closure would put roughly 4,400 members at stated cancellation risk when overnight users are weighted to the 6% door-entry share; this is large enough that the operations director should not close all 14 sites without mitigation.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q4 likely to cancel: total 14.6%; overnight users 45.8%; non-users 9.2%. Weighted: 0.06*45.8 + 0.94*9.2 = 11.4%; 11.4% of 38,600 = about 4,399.

  3. The 24-hour brand matters strongly to overnight users but is not the dominant reason most members joined, so marketing risk is concentrated rather than universal.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Q5 chose Corefit because 'Open 24 hours': 24.0% overall vs 59.2% among overnight users.

  4. The regional manager's North West vs North East framing is not statistically reliable; the apparent North West cancellation gap is not significant and overnight-use rates are similar.

    Medium confidenceBase 449

    Q4 likely to cancel: North West 19.2% (n=229) vs North East 13.6% (n=220); difference 5.6 points, z≈1.6, not significant at 95%. Q1 overnight visit: North West 14.0% vs North East 15.0%.

  5. Hard-core overnight demand is driven by shift and night workers, who are much more likely to use the gym overnight and to say a closure would remove their only training window.

    High confidenceBase 239

    Among night-shift workers, 80.4% had at least one overnight visit and 62.5% usually arrive 11pm-5am. 16 open-text answers explicitly say overnight is their only feasible time because of shifts/nights.

  6. Site-level variation is the actionable pattern: overnight use and cancellation risk differ widely by home gym, and regional aggregation hides this.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q1 overnight visit by gym ranges from 7.5% at Leeds Kirkstall to 20.3% Newcastle Byker, with Wakefield Calder Park at 54.5% on only 11 respondents. Q4 likely-to-cancel by gym ranges from 6.6% Bradford Centre to 27.3% Wakefield, with high values at Manchester Ancoats 21.0%, Preston 19.2%, Newcastle Byker 18.9% and Hull Marina 18.3%.

  7. If quiet sites are closed overnight, expect displacement crowding at 10pm and 5am and pressure for a fee reduction; these are operational and retention risks not captured by the headline cancellation estimate.

    Medium confidenceBase 239

    31 open-text respondents warn about displaced overnight users crowding 10pm/5am slots; 52 open-text respondents say a closure should reduce the monthly fee.

  8. Stated cancellation is an upper-bound risk estimate: most non-users still say they would not cancel, but response bias, the hypothetical wording, and the gap between survey self-report and door-entry records mean actual churn should be tested in a pilot.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q4 non-users likely to cancel 9.2%; overall stated cancellation 14.6%; survey overnight use 14.9% vs door-entry 6%. Completed responses 950 from 11,900 invited.

Caveats

  • Completed responses were 950 from 11,900 invited, a 7.98% response rate; non-response bias could materially affect all survey estimates, especially if overnight users or angry members were more likely to reply.
  • The survey says 14.9% used a gym overnight in the last four weeks, while door-entry records say 6% did so in September; this gap means self-reported overnight use is probably overstated or inconsistently understood.
  • Q4 is a hypothetical stated-likelihood question and is not actual cancellation behaviour; the weighted 11.4% / about 4,400 projection should be treated as a risk scenario, not a forecast.
  • The tables are unweighted, and the weighted cancellation projection assumes the door-entry 6% split is accurate and that Q4 rates in each group apply to all members.
  • Several gym-level bases are very small, especially Wakefield Calder Park (n=11), so site rankings from the survey alone are unstable.
  • Open-text answers are only 239 of 950 completes and are self-selected; the theme counts show the shape of concerns, not prevalence among all members.
  • The analysis does not include site-level operating costs, security incidents, competitor 24-hour access by location, or legal/insurance implications of overnight closure.

Next steps

  • decisionApprove a site-level pilot rather than a blanket 11pm-5am closure, selecting the quietest sites using door-entry data and retaining 24-hour opening at high-use/high-risk sites.
  • researchExtract and analyse site-level door-entry counts by hour and unique member for September-October 2026 and reconcile them with Q1.
  • experimentRun an 8-12 week overnight closure pilot at 2-4 of the lowest-use sites, with clear member communications, monitoring of shift workers, and a control group of similar open sites.
  • monitorMonitor cancellations, complaints, 5am/10pm occupancy, door-entry displacement and competitor switching at pilot versus control sites.
  • researchQuantify price sensitivity and competitor 24-hour access among overnight users and shift workers before deciding whether closure requires a fee change.

Open-text themes it coded

No impact because they do not use overnight 90Welcomes closure or feels safer with no unstaffed overnight access 42Expects a lower monthly fee if opening hours are cut 52Overnight is the only feasible training time because of shift or night work 16Would move to another gym or leave Corefit 19Warns that closing overnight would displace users into 10pm or 5am and create crowding 31

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Are you currently a Corefit member with an active membership?

    One answer
    • Yes
    • No

    Continues if Yes

  2. Q1

    In the last 30 days, how many times did you enter a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am?

    One answer
    • None
    • 1–2 times
    • 3–5 times
    • 6–10 times
    • 11–20 times
    • More than 20 times
  3. Q2

    How often do you usually use a Corefit gym at any time of day or night?

    One answer
    • Less than once a month
    • 1–3 days a month
    • 1–2 days a week
    • 3–4 days a week
    • 5 or more days a week
    • Don't know
  4. Q3

    If Corefit closed all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, how would this affect your gym use?

    One answer
    • No effect on how often I use Corefit
    • I would use Corefit at different times instead
    • I would use Corefit less often
    • I would stop using Corefit
    • Don't know
  5. Q4

    If Corefit closed all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, would you keep your membership?

    One answer
    • Definitely keep it
    • Probably keep it
    • Might leave or might keep it
    • Probably leave
    • Definitely leave
    • Don't know
  6. Q5

    Which of the following were reasons you chose Corefit? Select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • 24-hour opening
    • Price / value for money
    • Location
    • Equipment
    • No long-term contract / rolling monthly membership
    • Cleanliness
    • Classes or facilities
    • Crowd levels / not too busy
    • Other
    • None of these
  7. Q6

    If Corefit closed all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, what would you most likely do instead during those hours?

    One answer
    • Use Corefit at a different time of day
    • Use another gym
    • Exercise somewhere else (e.g., home, outdoors)
    • Skip or reduce workouts
    • Don't know

    Routing Shown only if Q1 is: 1–2 times; 3–5 times; 6–10 times; 11–20 times; More than 20 times

  8. Q7

    What is your age?

    One answer
    • Under 18
    • 18–24
    • 25–34
    • 35–44
    • 45–54
    • 55–64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
  9. Q8

    How would you describe your gender?

    One answer
    • Woman
    • Man
    • Non-binary
    • Other
    • Prefer not to say
  10. Q9

    How long have you been a Corefit member?

    One answer
    • Less than 3 months
    • 3–6 months
    • 7–12 months
    • 1–2 years
    • More than 2 years
    • Don't know
  11. Q10

    How important was 24-hour opening when you decided to join Corefit?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Not at all important to Extremely important

Sample plan

Invite a random sample of current Corefit members stratified by home gym from the membership database by email, with two reminders. The stated per-gym precision of ±8 percentage points at 95% confidence requires about 151 completes per gym (about 2,114 total; invite about 4,200 assuming a 50% response rate). The brief's ~1,000 completes would give about 71 per gym and only ±11.6 percentage points at p=0.5, so either raise the field to ~2,114 completes or relax the per-gym precision. If fielding is capped at ~1,000, report per-gym results as indicative only. No demographic quotas; monitor completes by gym and region to ensure minimum cell sizes and weight overall results back to the member population by gym.