Claude Fable 5.2: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

Scorecard

The analysis

Findings

1. Operations director: overnight use is a small minority, but it is not 'almost nobody', and the survey alone does not justify closing all 14 gyms.

   High confidenceBase 950

   14.9% of respondents (142 of 950, ±2.3 points) say they were in a gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks. Door-entry records put it at 6% of members (about 2,316) in September. The survey over-represents overnight users roughly 2.5 times, partly through self-selection and partly because Q1 counts anyone still inside after 11pm while the door data counts entries only. Only 5.4% (51 respondents) say overnight is their usual arrival time.

2. Overnight users are two different groups: a majority of occasional visitors, and a core of night-shift workers who use the gym heavily overnight and say they have no other time to train. A blanket closure removes the service entirely for that core.

   Medium confidenceBase 142

   Of 142 overnight users, 78 (55%) made only 1 to 3 visits in four weeks; the median is in the '2 to 3' band, and the mean of 7.4 is pulled up by heavy users. 49 made 8 or more visits, and 45 of those 49 work shifts that include nights. Among the 56 night-shift workers, 80.4% visited overnight, 62.5% usually arrive overnight and 48.2% say they are likely to cancel (±13 points on this base). 16 open-text answers say overnight is the only time they can train. If the door-entry population has the same mix, this core is roughly 800 members, a rough extrapolation.

3. Marketing director: plan for losing roughly 1,000 overnight users as the firmer core of the loss, with about 4,400 members (11.4%) as a stated-intention ceiling rather than a forecast.

   Low confidenceBase 950

   Unweighted, 14.6% say they are likely to cancel (139 of 950). This is 45.8% of overnight users (65 of 142, ±8 points) and 9.2% of non-users (74 of 808, ±2 points). Reweighted to the door-entry split of 6% and 94%, it is 11.4%, about 4,400 of 38,600 members (sampling range about 3,650 to 5,150). Overnight users account for about 1,060 of that (45.8% of 2,316). Counting 'very likely' only gives 4.9%, about 1,900 members. Stated intention to cancel under a hypothetical normally overstates what people do, and 32.3% answered 'neither'.

4. About three-quarters of the projected loss comes from members who never use the gym overnight. Their answers look like reactions to price fairness and crowding rather than lost access, so this part of the risk is the softest and the most manageable through pricing and communication.

   Medium confidenceBase 808

   Non-users contribute 8.6 of the 11.4 weighted points, about 3,300 of the 4,400 members. Among the 200 comments from non-users, 87 say no effect, 43 expect a lower fee, 42 would welcome closure on safety grounds and 28 fear crowding just before 11pm or just after 5am. None says they would leave. Q4 did not say what would happen to the price.

5. 24-hour opening is a secondary reason for joining among current members; price and location dominate. But it is the main draw for the minority who use it, and the survey says nothing about its pull on prospective members.

   Medium confidenceBase 950

   'Open 24 hours' was a joining reason for 24.0%, fifth of the six named reasons, behind low price (68.9%), location (62.6%), no contract (38.9%) and equipment (29.8%). It is 59.2% among overnight users (base 142) against 17.8% among non-users (base 808), and 55.4% among night-shift workers (base 56). Only current members were surveyed.

6. Regional manager: the North West versus North East gap is not reliable and should not drive a regional exemption. The decision unit should be the individual gym.

   Low confidenceBase 449

   19.2% of North West respondents are likely to cancel (44 of 229) against 13.6% in the North East (30 of 220). The 5.6-point gap gives z of about 1.6, not significant at 95%. North West against all other regions combined (19.2% v 13.2%) is borderline, but that is a post-hoc pick of the highest of four regions. Overnight use is no higher in the North West (14.0% v 15.0%). Preston has the second-lowest overnight use (7.7%) yet 19.2% likely to cancel, and Newcastle Byker in the North East (18.9%) is as high as the North West gyms. Region is also derived from Q6, which looks unreliable.

7. The survey cannot identify 'the quietest gyms'. That choice must come from door-entry data by gym, not from these tables.

   Medium confidenceBase 950

   Per-gym bases are 61 to 81, giving margins of roughly ±6 to ±10 points, and Wakefield has 11 respondents. Reported overnight use runs from 7.5% (Leeds Kirkstall) to 20.3% (Newcastle Byker). Wakefield's 54.5% is 6 of 11 people and its 27.3% likely to cancel is 3 of 11, so neither can be read. About 19 of the 239 comments mention a city or branch that does not match the respondent's Q6 home gym (for example M100, M121, M429, M625, M823), so the gym and region splits may be misattributed.

8. Closure has side effects beyond the overnight users: an unprompted expectation of a price cut, fear of crowding at 10 to 11pm and 5 to 6am, and a group who would welcome it because unstaffed nights feel unsafe.

   Medium confidenceBase 239

   Of 239 open-text answers, 52 expect a lower fee (suggested amounts range from £3 to £10 a month), 31 expect crowding in the hours either side of the closure, and 42 would be glad of closure for safety reasons. 90 say it would not affect them. These are counts of comments, not estimates of prevalence. The safety and crowding themes were not measured in any closed question.

Open-text themes it coded

No effect on me: I never use the gym overnight 90Would expect a lower monthly fee if hours are cut 52Would welcome closure: an unstaffed gym at night feels unsafe 42Fear of crowding in the quiet hours either side of the closure (about 10 to 11pm and 5 to 6am) 31Overnight is the only time I can train because of night or shift work 16Would move to another gym that stays open 24 hours 19

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

1. S1

   Are you currently a member of Corefit?

   One answer
   • Yes, I am currently a member
   • Yes, but I have given notice to cancel
   • No, my membership has ended or been cancelled

   Continues if Yes, I am currently a member; Yes, but I have given notice to cancel

2. Q1

   Thinking back to when you joined Corefit, which of these were reasons you chose it? Please select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • Low monthly price
   • No long-term contract
   • Convenient location
   • Open 24 hours a day
   • The equipment and facilities
   • The classes on offer
   • Friends or family were members
   • Recommendations or reviews
   • Something else
   • I don't remember
3. Q2

   In the past 3 months, at which of these times of day have you been at a Corefit gym? Please select every time period in which you spent any part of a visit.

   Any that apply
   • Between 5am and 9am
   • Between 9am and 12 noon
   • Between 12 noon and 5pm
   • Between 5pm and 8pm
   • Between 8pm and 11pm
   • Between 11pm and 5am
   • I have not been to a Corefit gym in the past 3 months
4. Q3

   In the past 3 months, about how often were you at a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am?

   One answer
   • Once or twice in the whole 3 months
   • About once a month
   • 2 or 3 times a month
   • About once a week
   • 2 or 3 times a week
   • 4 or more times a week

   Routing Shown only if Q2 is: Between 11pm and 5am

5. Q4

   Why do you use the gym between 11pm and 5am? Please select all that apply.

   Any that apply
   • It fits around my work hours or shifts
   • It fits around my studies
   • It fits around caring or family commitments
   • The gym is quieter then
   • I prefer to exercise late at night or very early in the morning
   • It is the only time I am able to go
   • Another reason

   Routing Shown only if Q2 is: Between 11pm and 5am

6. Q5

   Corefit is reviewing its opening hours. Imagine the Corefit gym you use most was closed every night between 11pm and 5am and open from 5am to 11pm, with everything else, including the price, staying the same. How much, if at all, would this affect you?

   Scale

   Scale 1-5: Would not affect me at all to Would affect me a great deal

7. Q6

   If the Corefit gym you use most was closed between 11pm and 5am, what would you be most likely to do?

   One answer
   • Keep my membership and use the gym as I do now
   • Keep my membership and move my visits to other times
   • Keep my membership but use the gym less often
   • Probably cancel my membership
   • Definitely cancel my membership
   • Not sure
   Judges: assumptive

   Shown to all current members, including those who have never attended. The scenario assumes they have a gym they use most, and the substantive response options assume existing gym use.

   The options assume the respondent has an ongoing membership to keep or cancel, but S1 includes members who have already given notice to cancel.

8. Q7

   You said you would use the gym less often or cancel your membership if it closed between 11pm and 5am. In a sentence or two, what is the main reason? (Optional)

   Open text

   Routing Shown only if Q6 is: Keep my membership but use the gym less often; Probably cancel my membership; Definitely cancel my membership

9. Q8

   Which of these best describes your current working pattern?

   One answer
   • I work mainly daytime hours
   • I work mainly evenings or nights
   • I work rotating or changing shifts
   • I am a full-time student
   • I am not currently working (including retired, caring or looking for work)
   • Prefer not to say
10. Q9

    How old are you?

    One answer
    • Under 25
    • 25 to 34
    • 35 to 44
    • 45 to 54
    • 55 to 64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
11. Q10

    Which of these best describes you?

    One answer
    • Woman
    • Man
    • Non-binary
    • I describe myself in another way
    • Prefer not to say