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Muse Ember: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✗ Not sound
Research score
89 of 100
Analysis rating
1,392
Head to head, this task
won 7 of 13

Why it is not sound

The analysis

  • Reported a material finding the data does not support
  • Missed a trap: Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

Findings the judges found unsupported

  • Night-shift workers are the segment for whom closure is existential, and will largely not simply move time-of-day. Occasional overnight users are more plausibly movable, but the survey does not test that.The claim that nine mainly daytime respondents who would switch chose Corefit for 24-hour access is not established. The tables do not link individual Q5 answers to the open texts, and the switching texts do not establish that joining reason for nine such respondents.
  • No gym-by-gym closure decision can be made from this survey. Gym samples are too small, especially Wakefield, and range differences are within noise.The blanket assertion that gym differences are within noise is not supported. For example, the cancellation-intent difference between Bradford Centre (4/61) and Manchester Ancoats (17/81) is nominally significant at 95% in an ordinary two-proportion comparison. Multiple comparisons, small samples and response bias warrant caution, but do not establish that all observed differences are chance.
  • The 24-hour proposition is a brand and option-value asset even for many who rarely use it, so any closure needs a tested compensating offer, not just a timetable change.The evidence supports some current members valuing the option of overnight access, but does not establish a wider brand asset or that every closure requires a compensating offer. The survey excludes prospective members and former members, and no compensation offer was tested.
  • Cancel risk is concentrated in overnight users, but the larger non-overnight group contributes most projected cancellers in volume, so closing cannot be treated as only affecting overnight users.It converts the 9.2% stated cancel intent among non-overnight users into about 3,338 'projected cancellers' and concludes they are the bulk of the losses. That figure rests on a hypothetical stated intention from members who do not use the hours. Their open-text answers mostly ask for a fee cut rather than threatening to leave.

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,3994,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.26 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1919
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓8%8%

Traps in the data 7 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✗Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Do not close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am now, and do not keep the North West open as a special case. Keep 24-hour opening estate-wide in the short term while obtaining door-entry by gym and hour, because weighted stated cancel intent is 11.4% (about 4,399 members) with no price cut offered, and the at-risk heavy users are night-shift workers who say they cannot move time. Next, pilot overnight closure only at gyms proved quietest in door-entry data, with a tested fee reduction, shoulder-capacity safeguards at 10pm and 5am, and explicit retention monitoring; extend only if pilot incremental churn and shoulder crowding stay low and savings per member exceed lost margin.

What would change it

Extend closure beyond pilot gyms if door-entry shows specific gyms have very low unique overnight use and few heavy users, a randomised price-discount test materially reduces likely-cancel among non-overnight users, and a 3-month pilot shows incremental churn versus matched 24-hour gyms is small (for example under 1-2 points) with no shoulder-capacity harm and positive net saving after lost members. Conversely, keep 24-hour opening if a discount does not reduce cancel intent, pilot churn exceeds control by more than that, shoulder peaks breach capacity, or overnight cost per visit is already low.

Findings

  1. Do not close all 14 gyms overnight on this evidence: stated cancel intent, weighted to door-entry use, is still about 1 in 9 members, not a trivial overnight minority.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q4 likely to cancel 14.6% unweighted (139/950), but survey over-represents overnight users versus door entry. Weighting overnight users to 6% and others to 94%: 0.06x45.8% + 0.94x9.2% = 11.4%, i.e. about 4,399 of 38,600 members. That is stated intent with no price cut offered, so it is a risk signal, not a forecast of actual churn.

  2. Cancel risk is concentrated in overnight users, but the larger non-overnight group contributes most projected cancellers in volume, so closing cannot be treated as only affecting overnight users.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Likely to cancel: 45.8% of overnight users (65/142) versus 9.2% of non-overnight users (74/808). Applied to population: overnight segment about 2,316x45.8%=1,061; non-overnight about 36,284x9.2%=3,338; total about 4,399. Non-users also valued 24-hour opening when joining: 17.8% (144/808) in Q5 versus 59.2% (84/142) for overnight users and 24.0% overall.

  3. The survey overnight share cannot be used for planning: it is 14.9% versus 6% in door-entry records, indicating non-response/self-report bias. Overnight use is also polarised: many occasional users and a small heavy night-shift core.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Survey Q1 at least one visit 14.9% (142/950, 95% margin about +/-2.26 points) versus door entry 6% (about 2,316 members) in September 2026. Among overnight users mean visits 7.4 in 4 weeks but median falls in 2 to 3 visits band; 15+ visits are 3.4% of all respondents, about 22-23% of overnight users. Shifts including nights: 5.9% of sample (56), 80.4% visited overnight and 48.2% likely to cancel; 16 open-text answers say overnight is their only training window due to shifts/nights.

  4. Night-shift workers are the segment for whom closure is existential, and will largely not simply move time-of-day. Occasional overnight users are more plausibly movable, but the survey does not test that.

    Medium confidenceBase 142

    Shifts including nights (56): 57.1% reported 15+ overnight visits, 62.5% usually arrive 11pm-5am in Q2, 48.2% likely to cancel in Q4. Open text: 16 only-window shift/night answers and 19 overnight-user answers saying they would move to another gym, including 9 mainly daytime respondents who chose Corefit for 24-hour access. Only 5.4% of all respondents usually arrive overnight, versus 14.9% who visited at least once, so usual-time and any-use measure different things.

  5. The North West versus North East cancel gap does not justify keeping the North West open on that basis, and overnight use does not differ materially by region.

    Medium confidenceBase 449

    Q4 likely to cancel: North West England 19.2% (44/229) versus North East England 13.6% (30/220), difference 5.6 points, SE about 3.5 points, z about 1.6, not significant at 95%. Q1 overnight use: North West 14.0% (32/229) versus North East 15.0% (33/220). Scotland overnight use is higher at 19.3% (26/135) but cancel intent is similar at 14.8%.

  6. No gym-by-gym closure decision can be made from this survey. Gym samples are too small, especially Wakefield, and range differences are within noise.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Home-gym bases are 61-81 except Wakefield Calder Park base 11, where overnight use 54.5% (6/11) and likely cancel 27.3% (3/11) have very wide intervals. Likely cancel by gym ranges from 6.6% at Bradford Centre (4/61) to 21.0% at Manchester Ancoats (17/81), differences of this size are expected by chance at n about 70 per gym. No door-entry by gym or hour is provided.

  7. Closing overnight would create offsetting effects among non-users that Q4 alone misses: expected price cuts, perceived safety gains for some, and shoulder crowding for others. A closure without a price response is therefore especially risky.

    Low confidenceBase 239

    Among 239 open-text answers: 51 expect a lower fee/discount, 42 cite safety/reassurance from closing an unstaffed gym, and 31 warn that 10pm and/or 5am will become crowded as overnight users are displaced (e.g. M057, M119, M218, M734). Q4 also has 32.3% neither likely nor unlikely to cancel, showing large uncertain middle. Price was the top joining reason at 68.9% in Q5.

  8. The 24-hour proposition is a brand and option-value asset even for many who rarely use it, so any closure needs a tested compensating offer, not just a timetable change.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    Q5 open 24 hours was a joining reason for 24.0% overall (228/950), 59.2% of overnight users and 17.8% of non-overnight users. In open text, 19 of 41 overnight-user answers say they would move to another gym, many naming 24-hour competitors. This is stated preference in a hypothetical with no discount, so magnitude is uncertain, but direction is consistent across Q4, Q5 and Q3.

Caveats

  • Response rate is only 8.0% (950 completes from 11,900 invited) and tables are unweighted; overnight users are over-represented versus door entry (14.9% versus 6%), so unweighted shares overstate population overnight use and cancel risk.
  • Q4 is stated hypothetical intent with no price cut, alternative gym, or notice period specified; 32.3% are neither likely nor unlikely. Intention will not translate one-for-one into actual cancellations on a rolling monthly contract, in either direction.
  • Self-reported Q1 visits in the last 4 weeks do not align perfectly with September door entry and some open-text answers contradict their visited label (e.g. M034, M305, M735, M838, M914 say they never go overnight); treat segments as indicative.
  • Open-text themes rest on 239 self-selected answers (25.2% of completes); theme counts describe those answers and must not be projected as population percentages.
  • Region and gym subsamples are small: Wakefield n=11 and other gyms n=61-81, so gym rankings and the North West/North East gap (not significant) cannot support differential opening decisions.
  • No data are provided on overnight staffing/safety costs, door entry by gym and hour, unique users per gym, shoulder capacity, competitor proximity, or member tenure/value by segment, all of which are needed to judge whether savings outweigh churn.

Next steps

  • researchExtract door-entry data by gym, hour and unique user for at least 3-6 months, including heavy-user concentration and cost per overnight visit, and reconcile it with the 6% population figure.
  • experimentRun a randomised follow-up among members testing closure with no discount versus closure with specific discounts (for example £3 and £5 per month), weighted to the membership population and boosted for small gyms and night-shift workers.
  • experimentPilot 11pm-5am closure at 2-3 door-verified quietest gyms for 3 months, with matched 24-hour control gyms, shoulder staffing/capacity cover at 10pm-11pm and 5am-6am, and proactive communication about safety and price.
  • monitorSet up weekly monitoring of cancellations, reactivations, competitor switching mentions, shoulder peak occupancy and safety incidents by gym during any pilot.
  • decisionHold a gated decision review once door-entry, discount-test and pilot results are available, comparing close-all, close-quietest-only and keep-24-hour on net revenue per gym.

Open-text themes it coded

No effect / never go overnight 90Expect lower fee / price reduction if hours are cut 51Safer / reassured if unstaffed overnight gym closes 42Shoulder crowding: displaced overnight users will make 10pm and/or 5am busy and lose quiet slots 3111pm-5am is only training window because of shifts / nights 16Would move / switch to another gym 19

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 9 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Are you currently a member of Corefit?

    One answer
    • Yes, I am a current Corefit member
    • No, I am not a current Corefit member
    • I don't know

    Continues if Yes, I am a current Corefit member

  2. Q1

    Which of the following were reasons you chose Corefit as your gym? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • Monthly cost or value for money
    • Location of the gym
    • Rolling monthly membership with no long contract
    • 24-hour opening
    • Range of equipment
    • Parking or public transport access
    • Cleanliness and facilities
    • Recommendation from someone else
    • Another reason
  3. Q2

    In the last 30 days, how many times have you entered any Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am?

    One answer
    • Never
    • Once
    • 2 to 3 times
    • 4 to 7 times
    • 8 or more times
    • I don't remember
  4. Q3

    Which of the following best describes your usual work pattern at the moment?

    One answer
    • Regular daytime hours
    • Regular evening or night shifts
    • Variable hours, including shifts that finish late or start early
    • Flexible hours working from home
    • Not currently in paid work
    • Another pattern
  5. Q4

    In the last 30 days, how many times in total have you visited any Corefit gym at any time of day?

    One answer
    • Never
    • 1 to 3 times
    • 4 to 7 times
    • 8 to 15 times
    • 16 or more times
    • I don't remember
  6. Q5

    Imagine that from next month your home Corefit gym closed between 11pm and 5am every night, but your membership and daytime opening stayed the same. What would you most likely do? Please select all that apply.

    Any that apply
    • I would use another Corefit gym overnight instead
    • I would use Corefit only during the day or evening
    • I would reduce how often I use Corefit
    • I would use a different gym or exercise at home overnight
    • I would cancel my Corefit membership
    • Nothing would change - I would keep using Corefit as I do now
    • I don't know
    Judges: ambiguous

    It asks what respondents would 'most likely' do, which calls for one answer, but then says 'select all that apply'. Options that cannot both be true ('Nothing would change' with 'cancel' or 'reduce') can be ticked together, so the answers cannot be cleanly interpreted.

    Ambiguous because it asks what the respondent would 'most likely do' (singular) but instructs to 'select all that apply'. Double-barrelled because 'use a different gym or exercise at home overnight' combines two different actions.

  7. Q6

    If all Corefit gyms closed between 11pm and 5am, how likely would you be to cancel your Corefit membership within the next three months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

  8. Q7

    If only your home Corefit gym closed between 11pm and 5am, while other Corefit gyms stayed open 24 hours, how likely would you be to cancel your Corefit membership within the next three months?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Very unlikely to Very likely

  9. Q8

    How important is it to you personally that your home Corefit gym is open between 11pm and 5am?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Not at all important to Extremely important

  10. Q9

    What is your age group?

    One answer
    • Under 25
    • 25 to 34
    • 35 to 44
    • 45 to 54
    • 55 to 64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
Sample plan

Email unique-token invitations to a stratified random sample of all current Corefit members, stratified by database home gym with equal allocation and no exclusions by recent activity, visit frequency or September overnight entry. Target 150 completes in each of the 14 gyms, 2,100 completes in total (conservative; about 142 per average-sized gym after finite-population correction), with a hard per-gym completion quota and random top-ups from the same gym if needed; invite about 8,400 initially (600 per gym), send two neutral reminders and expand the random sample if response is below 25% until quotas are met. About 1,000 completes (about 71 per gym) would give only about plus or minus 11.6 percentage points at 95% confidence for a 50% result, so it cannot meet the board's plus or minus 8 percentage points per gym; the target must be increased or the precision requirement formally relaxed. Randomise Q1 and Q5 option order, keeping 'I don't know' last. Weight company-wide estimates back to the 38,600-member population by home-gym membership and check/calibrate nonresponse using database home gym and September overnight-entry status; report per-gym results with confidence intervals. Use neutral invitation wording with no cost-saving or expected-outcome framing.