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GPT-6 Luna: Should Corefit gyms stop opening 24 hours?

The decision: whether to close all 14 gyms between 11pm and 5am, close overnight only at the quietest gyms, or keep every gym open 24 hours. The brief and the data →

Verdict
✗ Not sound
Research score
86 of 100
Analysis rating
1,102
Head to head, this task
won 1 of 9

Why it is not sound

The analysis

  • Made a recommendation that does not follow from the data
  • Proposed a mistaken next step: Keep every gym open 24 hours because a share of members say they would cancel

Scorecard

Numbers 11 of 11 right

QuestionIts answerTrue
What percentage of respondents reported at least one visit to a Corefit gym between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓14.9%14.9%
What percentage of all respondents said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel their membership if their home gym closed between 11pm and 5am?✓14.6%14.6%
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, what percentage said they would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓45.8%45.8%
Weighted so that respondents with at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks count as 6% of members (the door-entry figure) and the rest as 94%, what percentage would be likely (fairly or very) to cancel?✓11.4%11.4%
If the weighted share likely to cancel were applied to all 38,600 members, about how many members would that be?✓4,3994,383
Among respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, in which band of the Q1 table does the median number of visits fall? Give the lowest value of that band (for example 4 for '4 to 7').✓22
What is the 95% margin of error, in percentage points, on the unweighted share of respondents who reported at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks?✓2.3 points2.27 points
Is the difference between North West England and North East England respondents in the share likely (fairly or very) to cancel statistically significant at the 95% level? (1 for yes, 0 for no)✓NoNo
How many of the open-text answers say that 11pm to 5am is the only time the respondent can train because they work shifts or nights?✓1616
How many of the open-text answers from respondents who visited between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks say they would move to another gym?✓1819
What percentage of the members invited completed the survey?✓8%8%

Traps in the data 8 of 8 handled

  • ✓14.9% of respondents report at least one visit between 11pm and 5am in the last four weeks, against 6% of members in the door-entry records: members with a stake in the overnight hours were more likely to respond. Unweighted, 14.6% say they would be likely to cancel; weighted to the 6%, 11.4%.
  • ✓'Likely to cancel' answers (45.8% of overnight users, 14.6% overall) are stated intentions about a hypothetical closure, asked straight after members were invited to think about it.
  • ✓The mean number of overnight visits among overnight users (7.4) is pulled up by night-shift workers who come almost daily; the median is in the '2 to 3' band.
  • ✓The operations director believes almost nobody uses the gyms overnight. Partly true: 6% of members in the door-entry records (about 2,316 people). But night-shift workers (5.9% of respondents) mostly train between 11pm and 5am (77.8% of those who visited overnight usually arrive then) and are the most likely to say they would cancel.
  • ✓At Wakefield Calder Park (base 11), 54.5% of respondents used the gym overnight and 27.3% say they would be likely to cancel.
  • ✓North West England respondents (base 229) look more likely to cancel than North East England respondents (base 220): 19.2% against 13.6%, a gap that is not statistically significant at 95%.
  • ✓Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed (about 8%); those who responded differ from those who did not, as the overnight-use skew shows.
  • ✓Only current members were surveyed: people who joined for 24-hour access and have since left, and people who would join only because of it, are missing, so the survey cannot show what 24-hour opening does for recruitment or the brand; and night-shift workers are a small group whose answers carry little weight in the totals even though they depend on the hours.

The analysis

Recommendation

Keep all 14 gyms open 24 hours for now; do not implement a chain-wide overnight closure or a North West exception on the basis of this survey. The evidence shows a real overnight user group, substantial stated cancellation risk among those users, and brand value among some non-users. In parallel, assess whether a reversible, site-specific trial at a genuinely low-use gym could make operational sense. Do not choose a pilot site using these survey percentages alone. Pair any trial with clear member communication, a fair pricing plan, and monitoring of adjacent-hour crowding and actual cancellations.

What would change it

A well-powered, site-level analysis showing that overnight operating costs materially exceed the value of retained memberships and other benefits could support a targeted closure trial. Evidence that members can practically use alternative Corefit sites, that affected night-shift members can be accommodated, and that 10–11pm and 5–6am capacity can absorb displaced visits would strengthen that case. Conversely, evidence of high actual overnight visit frequency, measurable churn following reduced access, or severe spillover into adjacent hours would support keeping all sites open.

Findings

  1. Do not treat overnight use as negligible: a minority uses it, but the group is large enough to matter commercially. The evidence does not support closing all 14 gyms on the basis that almost nobody uses them.

    High confidenceBase 950

    14.9% of survey respondents (142/950) reported at least one overnight visit in the prior four weeks. Separately, door-entry records show 6% of all current members—about 2,316 people—entered overnight at least once in September. These are different measures and periods, but both show a material user group.

  2. A blanket closure could put meaningful membership at risk, but the projected cancellations are a stated-intention scenario, not a forecast of actual churn.

    Medium confidenceBase 950

    14.6% of all respondents said they were fairly or very likely to cancel (139/950); this rises to 45.8% among recent overnight users (65/142), versus 9.2% among non-users (74/808). Weighting the two groups to the door-entry estimate of 6% and 94% gives 11.4%, or approximately 4,399 of 38,600 members if applied directly.

  3. The 11pm–5am offer has brand value beyond recent use. Do not assume that members who have not visited overnight are indifferent to losing access.

    High confidenceBase 950

    24.0% said 24-hour opening was a reason they joined (228/950); this was 59.2% among recent overnight users (84/142) and 17.8% among non-users (144/808). Even among non-users, 9.2% said they were likely to cancel if access ended.

  4. Night-shift members are a particularly exposed group, although this subgroup is small. Their needs should be explicitly protected or tested before any closure.

    Medium confidenceBase 56

    Among respondents whose shifts include nights, 80.4% reported an overnight visit and 48.2% said they were likely to cancel after a closure (base 56). Sixteen open-text answers explicitly described overnight as their only workable training time because of shift or night work.

  5. The survey does not establish that North West members are more likely to leave than North East members. Do not use this comparison alone to justify keeping North West gyms open overnight.

    Medium confidenceBase 449

    Likely-to-cancel shares were 19.2% in North West England (44/229) and 13.6% in North East England (30/220), a 5.6 percentage-point difference. An approximate two-proportion test does not find this difference significant at 95% (z≈1.6).

  6. The survey cannot reliably identify which individual gyms are quiet enough to close. Use site-level operational data rather than ranking gyms from these survey percentages.

    High confidenceBase 950

    Gym-level respondent bases range from 11 at Wakefield Calder Park to 81 at Manchester Ancoats and Middlesbrough Centre. Wakefield’s 54.5% recent-use result is based on only 11 respondents, so it is especially unstable; the survey also does not provide overnight visit volumes, costs, or capacity by site.

  7. Any closure may shift demand into the hours immediately before 11pm and after 5am, potentially harming current quiet-hour users as well as overnight users.

    Medium confidenceBase 239

    Multiple open-text respondents described relying on quiet sessions around 10–11pm or 5–6am and expected displaced users to crowd those periods. These comments identify a plausible operational risk, but the open-text answers are qualitative and do not measure its prevalence or size.

Caveats

  • Only 950 of 11,900 invited members completed the survey: an 8.0% response rate. Respondents may differ from nonrespondents, particularly on overnight use and views about closure.
  • Results are unweighted except for the requested calculation that applies the 6% door-entry share. The sample profile is not shown against the full member population, so representativeness cannot be assessed or corrected here.
  • The 6% door-entry statistic covers September, while the survey asks about the prior four weeks and relies on self-report. They are not directly interchangeable measures.
  • Cancellation likelihood is hypothetical stated intent, not observed cancellation. The estimate of approximately 4,399 members should be treated as an exposure scenario, not a predicted loss.
  • The 95% margin of error of 2.3 percentage points assumes a simple random sample and does not account for nonresponse or other sources of error.
  • The North West–North East comparison and gym-level results are not strong enough to establish reliable local differences. Some site bases are very small.
  • Open-text answers are available for 239 respondents and are self-selected; theme counts indicate expressed views, not population prevalence. Some answers contain apparent inconsistencies in location or circumstances.

Next steps

  • decisionMaintain 24-hour opening at all sites while the business case is established; do not announce a chain-wide closure from these results.
  • researchAnalyse at least several months of door-entry data by gym, hour, unique member, visit frequency, and day of week; link this to site-level overnight operating and staffing costs.
  • researchAssess capacity and entry patterns from 10pm to 6am, including whether visits would shift into the hours immediately before or after a closure.
  • experimentIf the operational case supports it, run a reversible, time-limited trial at a site selected using entry and cost data, with advance member communication and a clear price response.
  • monitorTrack night-shift members separately during any evaluation and offer them a way to report whether alternative access works for them.
  • monitorIf an overnight change is proposed, measure actual cancellations and membership transfers before and after it, rather than relying on stated likelihood.

Open-text themes it coded

Night or shift workers say overnight is their only workable training time 16Recent overnight users explicitly say they would switch to another gym 18Concern that closing overnight will crowd the quiet hours around 11pm and 5am 31Members say unstaffed overnight access feels unsafe or unsettling, and some welcome closure 42Members expect a lower monthly fee if opening hours are reduced 51

The survey it planned

1 screening question and 10 questions, as the model wrote them.

  1. S1

    Are you currently a Corefit member?

    One answer
    • Yes
    • No

    Continues if Yes

  2. Q1

    In the last 30 days, how many times have you entered any Corefit gym between 11:00 pm and 5:00 am? Enter 0 if you have not entered a gym during these hours.

    Number
  3. Q2

    In the last 30 days, which best describes where you entered a Corefit gym between 11:00 pm and 5:00 am? Your home gym is the gym listed on your membership.

    One answer
    • I did not enter any Corefit gym during these hours
    • Only my home gym
    • Only a different Corefit gym
    • Both my home gym and a different Corefit gym
    • I can't remember
  4. Q3

    If you used a Corefit gym other than your home gym between 11:00 pm and 5:00 am in the last 30 days, please enter its name or town. If you used more than one, list each one.

    Open text

    Routing Shown only if Q2 is: Only a different Corefit gym; Both my home gym and a different Corefit gym

  5. Q4

    If all Corefit gyms were closed every day from 11:00 pm to 5:00 am, how much would this affect your ability to get the workouts you want at Corefit?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: No effect to It would make it impossible for me to get the workouts I want at Corefit

  6. Q5

    If all Corefit gyms were closed every day from 11:00 pm to 5:00 am, how likely would you be to keep your Corefit membership?

    Scale

    Scale 1-5: Definitely cancel to Definitely keep my membership

  7. Q6

    If all Corefit gyms were closed every day from 11:00 pm to 5:00 am, what would you be most likely to do?

    One answer
    • Keep my membership and work out at different times
    • Keep my membership and use a different Corefit gym
    • Keep my membership but mainly work out at a non-Corefit gym
    • Cancel Corefit and join or use another gym
    • Cancel Corefit and not join or use another gym
    • Something else
    • I'm not sure
  8. Q7

    When you first joined Corefit, which of the following were reasons for choosing it? Select up to 3.

    Any that apply
    • It is open 24 hours a day
    • The membership price or value for money
    • The rolling monthly membership or lack of a long-term contract
    • The location of the gym
    • The equipment available
    • The gym atmosphere
    • A recommendation from someone else
    • Another reason
    • I don't remember
  9. Q8

    Which best describes your usual work or study schedule?

    One answer
    • Mostly daytime hours
    • Mostly evening hours
    • Mostly overnight hours
    • Rotating or irregular shifts, including some overnight work
    • Another schedule
    • I am not currently working or studying
    • Prefer not to say
  10. Q9

    How old are you?

    One answer
    • Under 18
    • 18–24
    • 25–34
    • 35–44
    • 45–54
    • 55–64
    • 65 or over
    • Prefer not to say
  11. Q10

    In a typical week, how many times do you visit any Corefit gym?

    Number
Sample plan

Draw a random sample of current members from the membership database, stratified by home gym, and invite by email using a neutral invitation that does not suggest a preferred outcome. Aim for 1,000 completes, with quotas of 71 or 72 completes from each of the 14 gyms; send reminders and random top-up invitations within any gym strata that fall short. Use each member's home gym and its region from the database for grouping, and weight results back to the membership distribution across gyms for overall estimates. Where consent and data handling permit, link responses to entry records so reported use can be checked against recorded overnight entries. The requested precision of ±8 percentage points at 95% confidence for every gym cannot be achieved with 1,000 completes: 71–72 respondents per gym gives a worst-case margin of about ±12 points before weighting or nonresponse effects. Approximately 151 completes per gym, or 2,114 total, would be needed for ±8 points under simple random sampling and the conservative 50% proportion assumption; actual requirements may be lower with finite-population correction, depending on gym membership counts. If the board requires that precision, increase the target accordingly.